2024-04-17 16:03:14
It is becoming more and more important for V. Putin to demonstrate the supposedly enormous support of the Russians
It seems that 60 or 70 percent is no longer enough for the head of the Kremlin. support, this time the victory was won by almost 90%. support votes. Vilnius University political scientist Dovilė Jakniūnaitė observes that V. Putin needed two things – great activity and the votes of the vast majority of people for him. “By what means such a result was achieved, one has to guess, but it is reasonable to suspect that forced mobilization to come to vote was evident. We see a trend that since the first election, more and more people are voting for V. Putin. Now is the time when such great support is needed,” said the political scientist.
At the beginning of his presidential career in 2000, V. Putin received 53.4 percent. of votes, 2004 – 71.9 percent, 2012 – 63.60 percent, 2018 – 76.69 percent, and almost full support was attributed this year – 88 percent. of votes. True, voter turnout is also extremely important in conveying the idea that V. Putin is supported by the vast majority of Russians. This year, it reaches 74 percent, and the opposition’s attempt to protest by spoiling the ballot paper contributed to this number. The campaign to gather at the polling stations at noon on Sunday seems to have failed as well, because the photos of the extended queues served as disinformation. They have made the rounds on the Internet, indicating that Russians are standing in the longest queues to express their respect and trust in their leader. “It is clear that a lot of effort has been put into getting as many people as possible to come and vote. Large budgetary institutions, state enterprises, non-state corporations were obliged to bring their people to the polling stations. Forced mobilization – it really happened. Many people had to appear at the polling stations. The army was stationed in the occupied territories, so you won’t go to the elections any more,” said D. Jakniūnaitė.
The West points out that the elections are falsified, but they continue to call Putin the president
Although the West does not welcome Putin, it seems that there is no great desire to recognize him as an illegitimate president. Attempts are being made to emphasize the falsified elections, to condemn the voting held in the lands of Ukraine, but there is no intention to equate V. Putin with Aliaksandr Lukashenka, who has been called the illegally elected leader of Belarus for some time.
“The radical non-recognition that happened in the case of A. Lukashenka will not be announced. The elections will be evaluated very carefully and V. Putin will not be named as an illegitimate, illegal president. And because of the size of the country, the reluctance to categorically close the door to a possible, imaginary, further conversation, diplomatic channels. It will really be emphasized that the elections in the occupied territories are not considered to have been held there on some legal basis,” the expert emphasized.
An interesting perspective is forming when Western politicians speak loudly about illegal elections, but consider V. Putin, who was elected in them, to be the same leader as in any democratic country. When asked whether this game on two fronts will raise questions about cognitive dissonance for the Western voter, D. Jakniūnaitė assured that the issue is not so important in the West. “Formulations will be chosen that would imply that we claim that the elections were restricted, many civil and civil rights were restricted, the opposition was not allowed to vote, but at the same time without saying the concluding sentence about the non-recognition of the elections. Such a trend is very likely. Will someone make a more willful decision? We’ll see,” she said.
Non-recognition – cosmetics or a step that can provoke V. Putin’s brazen actions?
Western countries further away from the Kremlin will probably avoid it. However, in Eastern countries, this issue will likely be raised by politicians. There are already considerations as to whether it would make sense for Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and possibly Poland to recognize V. Putin as illegitimate. “I don’t know if it would be appropriate. In a symbolic sense, this way we would maintain our status as a state with such a position. One can ask whether we need a common European position, perhaps not as categorical as we would like, but it is important that it is common. It is better to have not an absolutely categorical, but a general position towards the Russian regime. That would make a lot more sense. This would demonstrate European unity, but such a position is also difficult to achieve, bearing in mind at least a couple of states that are extremely cautious about criticism of V. Putin,” said D. Jakniūnaitė.
This issue is not only diplomatic, some experts note that condemning V. Putin may lead to countermeasures, even military provocations. This, it seems, is the reason why the rhetoric, even from the most ambitious critics of Russia, sounds more muted than expected. “Russia, which perceives something as an affront to itself, tends to react. It is for sure. The only question is what scale of reaction would be chosen, what scale of brazen action. We have seen how Moscow reacted to Finland’s membership in NATO, making military reforms taking into account Sweden’s membership, but specifically in this case, whether we would get any very strict action, mostly military, which we fear, I doubt very much. Informative provocations and provocations in general should be expected constantly. This should always be expected”, said the expert.
D. Jakniūnaitė, a political scientist at the Vilnius University, stated in the “Gyvenu Europė” program of “Žinių radio” that it is likely that the falsified elections will be used as another argument in the European Union for the next package of sanctions, noting that the sanctions against the regime must be even stricter and exhausting. we can’t She also noted that, after being re-elected, V. Putin once again established himself as the head of the Kremlin, for some time he can behave more boldly in domestic politics, it is easier to mobilize even more soldiers, to carry out more radical economic and social reforms, and to introduce repressions.
Lithuania is not in a hurry to recognize V. Putin as the legitimate leader of Russia either
One gets the impression that Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, like the leaders of Western countries, will not rush to condemn V. Putin as the invalid leader of Russia. When asked whether the head of the country would consider V. Putin a legitimate president, the chief adviser to the president on national security and defense issues, Kęstutis Budrys, stated on the “Position” program of “Žiniai Radio” that Gitanas Nausėda would not consider this Russian political and coercive process an election. “This is not a legitimate, democratic process, it is a kind of imitation. Few would be surprised if the next election took place in Red Square with applause in favor of the candidacy. The result could be the same. It is known that there is no political opposition left in the country, nor could anyone imagine a normal competition of political ideas in Russia, and the trend is in the other direction. Russia is turning into a totalitarian state, a totalitarian regime. Its leader is what he is, having created this whole system,” commented an advisor to the country’s leader.
According to K. Budris, it is important to define what we would aim for by expressing non-recognition. “Will we seek to question all decisions, agreements, treaties related to international law, or will we seek for the international community to gather and replace the illegitimate leader?” A discussion is needed. We say that separate decisions have nothing to do with international law, for example, we deny and reject the annexation of Ukrainian territories,” said K. Budrys.
When asked why we consider A. Lukashenka illegal, and we do not question the legitimacy of V. Putin yet, he repeated that the election process itself is illegal. “Discussions have also started in the international community about considering him as an illegitimate leader. We should also have a, let’s say, very practical implementation discussion here, how we would treat the leader of a warring state, just as there are many more nuances in terms of international criminal responsibility. The political answer is quick and simple, I emphasize the legal side more here. In cases where the international community declared leaders illegitimate, such as Assad in Syria, Gaddafi in Libya, very specific actions followed, what that meant. It is empowering the international community to take responsibility for another state or its illegitimate government. In this case, with regard to Russia, we should still discuss it, but neither about the outcome, nor about what will follow after those elections, we seem to have had no doubts”, said the chief adviser to the president, K. Budrys.
2024-04-17 16:03:14