A new study reveals it 2050 THE deaths of over 39 million of people could be attributed to antibiotic resistance. Although this situation seems distant, the reality is that it kills more people today than malaria or the acquired immunodeficiency virus (HIV).
The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as one of the Top 10 health threats. The report warns that diseases such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, gonorrhea and other common bacterial infections, which until now could be treated with antibiotics, could become frequent causes of death again if progress is not made in the development of new drugs.
This was reported by an international team of researchers who, through an analysis covering 204 countries, predicted an alarming figure increase in deaths directly related to RAM by 2050, especially in people over the age of 70. The study, published in the scientific journal The Lancetrevealed that more than one million older adults died each year due to antimicrobial resistance between 1990 and 2021. However, deaths due to antimicrobial resistance among children under five years old have been reduced by more 50%.
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The problem of antimicrobial resistance is not new to researchers. From the decade of 1990antibiotics that once revolutionized modern medicine have lost their effectiveness due to multiple causes, including adaptive capacity of bacteria.
Improper use of antibiotics can render them useless
The project, led by the doctor Mohsen Naghaviresearcher of Institute of Health Metrics (IHME) from University of Washington of the United States noted that in 2021 alone, more than one million people died worldwide due to antimicrobial-resistant infections.
If current trends continue, the number of deaths due to this problem will increase within 25 years will grow by 70%against 1.91 million deaths.
According to researchers, high-income countries, such as the United States and several European countries, will see an increase 72% of deaths related to antimicrobial resistance by 2050. However, the most affected regions will be Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asiawhere an increase in 234% in deaths among the elderly.
The estimates were based on data from 520 million people of all ages from various locations. Hospital data, death registers and data on antibiotic use were taken into account.
“These findings highlight that antimicrobial resistance has been a problem significant threat to global health for decades and growing“added the IHME Doctor in the first global analysis examining the trend of antimicrobial resistance over time.
Experts call for the strengthening of health systems
“TO prevent this from becoming a reality mortal, we urgently need it new strategies to reduce the risk of infections through vaccines, new drugs, better healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics and guidance on how to use them more effectively,” said study author Dr. Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and affiliate professor at the IHME.
It also highlights several actions that could save 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050. These include improving access to antibiotics, strengthening health systems and the research for new drugs play a crucial role.
The predictions on the evolution of antibiotic resistance were published ahead of the UN General Assembly’s high-level meeting on the topic, which will be held on 26 September.
“This landmark study confirms that the planet is facing a antibiotic emergencywith a devastating human cost to families and communities around the world,” Dame Sally Davies, UK Special Envoy for Antimicrobial Resistance and member of the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Antimicrobial Resistance, said in a statement . She did not participate in the investigation.
RM / Come on
Interview: Editor of Time.news and Dr. Mohsen Naghavi on Antimicrobial Resistance
Editor (E): Welcome, Dr. Naghavi, and thank you for joining us today. Your recent study published in The Lancet has raised some alarming predictions regarding antimicrobial resistance. Could you briefly outline what your team found?
Dr. Naghavi (D): Thank you for having me. Our study analyzed data from 204 countries and projected that by 2050, over 39 million deaths could be attributable to antibiotic resistance. It’s particularly concerning because more people are currently dying from this issue than from malaria and HIV.
E: That’s quite shocking. The World Health Organization has designated antimicrobial resistance as one of the top health threats. Why is this concern so pressing at this moment?
D: Antimicrobial resistance, or AMR, has become a significant health threat due to factors like the adaptive capacities of bacteria, which allow them to evolve and resist the drugs we have. Proper use of antibiotics is crucial; misuse can lead to antibiotics becoming ineffective. If we don’t make progress in developing new drugs, we may witness diseases that were once easily treatable becoming major killers again.
E: It’s fascinating yet frightening. You mention that the study highlighted an increase in deaths particularly among older adults. Can you tell us more about that demographic?
D: Certainly. Older adults, especially those over 70, are at a higher risk because their immune systems are typically weaker, making them more vulnerable to infections. Between 1990 and 2021, we saw more than a million deaths per year related to AMR in this age group alone. If we don’t take action, the projected increase in mortality for older individuals is staggering—estimated to soar by 72% in high-income countries and even more in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
E: It’s a global issue, then. You mentioned that deaths among children under five have actually decreased by over 50%. What did you find in your research to account for that?
D: Yes, there has been some progress in reducing AMR-related deaths in younger children, largely due to better healthcare access, vaccination programs, and increased awareness about antibiotic usage in this demographic. However, the challenge remains for older populations and in regions with less access to healthcare or education regarding antibiotic use.
E: This indicates a need for global collaboration. What steps should be taken now to combat this growing threat of AMR?
D: Absolutely. Governments and health organizations must prioritize research funding for new antibiotics and alternative treatments. We also need to enforce stricter regulations on antibiotic prescription practices and enhance public education about appropriate use. Moreover, international cooperation is critical, as AMR knows no borders; a problem in one country can quickly escalate globally.
E: It sounds like there is a need for immediate and widespread action. Lastly, if our readers take away one message from this study, what would you want it to be?
D: The key takeaway is that antimicrobial resistance is not just a future concern; it’s a present-day crisis that requires urgent attention. By understanding the implications and taking action now, we can prevent a return to an era where common infections were deadly; we must act together to safeguard our future health.
E: Thank you, Dr. Naghavi, for sharing your insights and the urgency encapsulated in your findings. It’s a crucial conversation that we must continue.
D: Thank you for having me. It’s essential that we keep this dialogue going.