How will the economy be this year? This is the question that business leaders traditionally convened for these dates by APD y ERA. Last year, in 2022, their forecasts became obsolete after a few weeks, when Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine at the end of February and thus accelerate the inflationary cycle that marks the international economic panorama today.
“How will the economy be in 2023?” Senior managers of Europastry, Ficus or the listed fluidra at the headquarters of College of Economists. The synthesis of the shared reflection has been left above the round table by the corporate general director of Ficosa, Joseph Maria Serra: “The main concern is how we continue to transfer the foreseeable increase in costs to prices”. In other words, there is activity, there are investment expectations, the economy will not stop dead, but it will have to continue living -for the moment- with high prices, to the challenge of companies and a headache (or something else) for family economies.
“Volatility” -in other forums they call it “uncertainty”- has been the favorite tagline of the participants to qualify their forecasts, which are mostly good for this 2023. “They are paid a little more than the average to manage it well”, ironized by the president of the Social Economy Council (CES), Anton Costas.
This same Tuesday, Randstad has updated its data on remuneration among senior managers, quantifying its annual payroll between 100.000 euros fixed salary (variables apart) of an SME, up to 275.000 euros that on average the top leader of a large company earns. Slightly less than half, in relation to this last reference, than the almost 400,000 euros received by the leader of the CEOE employers, Antonio Garamendi.
Going back to the pools and the state of the economic issue for 2023, “it could be a good year, with some shadows”, the rector of UPF has summed up, Oriol Amat. This moderate optimism -which contrasts with the fatalism and predictions of recession that various voices intoned last summer- has been corroborated this Tuesday by the European Commission, which has revised growth in Spain upwards and forecasts a 1.4 % for this 2023.
Good prospects, despite high inflation
“The economy is relatively strong,” said the financial director of Fluidra, Xavier Tintoré. “Consumption volumes are good and healthy, there are no major alarm signals,” agreed his Europastry counterpart, Joaquim Baulo. “We foresee sales increases of between 4-6%. We are very attentive to China“, has affirmed Serra (Ficosa).
The expectations are just as good as the speakers have shown that inflation will not return this year to levels below 2% -as the central banks claim-. According to the latest forecasts of Funcasthe CPI will close the year in the 3,8%, half that of a year earlier but still well above the pre-invasion records. The challenge that the managers have verbalized is to keep pace with these cost increases at prices, without losing customers along the way.
A “new social contract”, for a “new era”
The president of the CES, Antón Costas, has closed the day appealing to configure a “new social pact” to respond to the challenges of a “new era”, in which states and economies must coexist with this permanent uncertainty. One of the formulas to minimize it that he has proposed is to reconfigure the role of the State, under that classic maxim of “as much market as possible, as much State as necessary”, and to once again shield a series of basic needs as a century ago shielded the Welfare state.
In this sense, he has praised the different response that the administrations, both national and international, have given to the covid crisis, through public spending and social protectionin contrast to the reaction to the 2008 crisis, based on austerity.
“The prices of a part of products will continue to be high [durante los próximos meses] and that poses a problem for certain groups”, warned Costas, advocating protection measures for the most vulnerable incomes. Although he has also warned that all the problems “we will not be able to fix only with redistribution -more taxes and more spending-, we will need good jobs for everyone”. Well, in an economy that is committed to innovation, the price element -critical at present- will lose preponderance.