Oleg Deripaska and Elvira Nabiullina argued about rates and inflation. The discussion between the billionaire and the head of the Central Bank took place within the framework of the Russia Calling investment forum. The founder of Rusal said that the market must first ensure the supply, but at high interest rates this is impossible, especially if the authorities are worried about inflation. Before that, the Chairman of the Central Bank emphasized that the rate of price growth can be reduced in two to three years, but it takes much more time to consolidate inflationary expectations. The discussion at the Russia Calling forum was followed by the correspondent of Kommersant FM Vladimir Rasulov.
– First of all, the founder of Rusal said that the authorities were mistakenly moving the demand curve down in order to beat and reduce the growing rate of price growth. In his opinion, this is not entirely true. And for the growth of the economy, for the fight against inflation, funds at affordable rates and regional development are needed. According to Oleg Deripaska, there are two problems in the country – a social and territorial imbalance, money mainly goes only to Moscow, and from the regions, on the contrary, there is a colossal outflow of funds.
And Oleg Deripaska suggested experimenting here, giving softer conditions in Siberia and the Far East, for example, and adding to this reduced interest rates on loans: “Let’s give money to logistics, goods will move faster and come more often. We cannot bring practically any of the redistribution products to Moscow from the south. Let’s invest in storage, reduce waste.
Nobody will invest when the cost of the loan is projected at 10% early next year, I guarantee you. “
Elvira Nabiullina, in turn, agreed with Oleg Deripaska’s statement that monetary policy should be aimed, among other things, at increasing supply. But at the same time, she clarified that in order to expand production, it is a long loan, long money that is important. But the rates on such loans, according to Elvira Nabiullina, depend not so much on the key one:
“If we look at how rates on long loans are formed, they do not so much depend on the key rate we have set at the moment, but on the expectations of banks and financial markets, what inflation will be in the next 5-10 years. If they see that the Central Bank is not fighting inflation, and it will be high in the future, then long rates are higher. “
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acted as a kind of arbiter in the dispute between Elvira Nabiullina and Oleg Deripaska. He stated that high inflation negatively affects all market participants – the authorities, the budget, and business. According to him, the budget should be moderately tight, and the monetary policy, on the contrary, should be softer and more adequate. And then, in general, all parties will be on an equal footing.
“We cannot help all sectors from the budget, subsidize high interest rates for everyone, if there is both a soft budget policy and a soft monetary policy. But budget toughness, moderate, its balance and low rates – that’s what is needed to develop the economy, to stimulate business not by distributing money from the budget, but by means of cheap loans. This is the main task, ”Siluanov explained.
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