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The Russian occupation army is rapidly losing resources, equipment and motivation, while the Ukrainian army is mastering modern military equipment and preparing for a new massive aid package from allied countries. When Crimea is liberated this year, the regime in Russia will begin to fall. Such an opinion in an exclusive interview The “Observer” was told by a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Aleksey Getman.
– The US National Intelligence announced a forecast according to which Putin plans to wage a protracted war against Ukraine with possible pauses in hostilities. Is there really a danger that the war will last for years? How can this be prevented?
– Unfortunately, this is quite possible, because Russia has accumulated large forces. Mostly infantry, because they have no heavy equipment. She is trying to move forward, using infantry without proper support from tanks and other armored vehicles. They also feel a certain hunger for cannon shells.
Therefore, Putin urgently needs to take some kind of pause in order to accumulate strength. In Russia shells are produced, tanks are produced. Today they can produce about one tank per day, but this is less than they lose in battles with the Ukrainian army. Therefore, a pause is very necessary.
Moreover, in Russia they realized that the tactics they used, the use of weapons that were used during the Cold War, no longer work. Because today’s war is a war with the use of drones, a technological war, a war of the mind, if I may say so, and not a war of the number of the same tanks.
Putin needs to put his armed forces in order, understaff and equip them with heavy equipment.
What are the occupying forces trying to do now? They are trying to advance along the arc between Kremennaya, Liman and Vuhledar. They want to break through Bakhmut to Chasovaya Yar or even Konstantinovka, then jointly move north from Vuhledar, and then attack Ukrainian positions from Gulyai-Pole to reach the south of Zaporozhye region. At the same time, there will be an attempt to attack from the north from Liman and Slavyansk. So they want to make a land corridor between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, to make this strip wider.
– Is that why Bakhmut is so important for the occupier?
– Yes. If they break through our defenses in Bakhmut, they will be able to move from the north towards Bakhmut, and from the south, from Gulyai-Pole and Ugledar, move on. That is, to make two powerful cordons of our troops. These plans are not a secret, the enemy himself spoke about it.
But if these plans are not realized, they will not abandon them. They just need a pause to build up strength and try again.
What can the Ukrainian army do to avoid this? Firstly, we need to stop the enemy on these three main directions of attack, wait for the final replenishment of our Armed Forces with shells, as Reznikov says. He asked for 250 thousand shells, but this is for two weeks of normal shelling that we need. Therefore, the minister asked to increase this number by at least three times. Then it will allow us to attack normally. Secondly, heavy equipment, which we expect, and everything else that is needed there. These are gun cartridges, armored vehicles, and air defense systems.
We definitely do not need a protracted war. She needs Putin. Will we be able to avoid this? For now, we need to keep the defense and prepare for our counteroffensive actions. It all depends on how we can prepare the forces.
It was officially reported that at least eight brigades are being trained under the flag of the Ministry of the Interior. There is information that certain units are understaffed and supplemented, our military is being trained abroad – almost 10,000 servicemen. In total, as Josep Borrell said, the number of trained and properly armed Ukrainian soldiers could reach 30,000.
If we can withstand the defense – I hope we can – and prepare for April-May, then after our counterattack there can no longer be any talk of any long-term war. Because this year we plan to liberate Crimea. After Crimea returns to Ukraine, I think such processes will begin inside the Russian Federation that Putin may not be able to stay in his post.
– Indeed, the Ukrainian army is significantly strengthened, our fighters are learning how to handle modern military equipment, this equipment comes to our country. At the same time, we see signs that the army of the occupying country is actually degrading. There are almost no elite units left, the “Wagnerites”, recruited in recent months from among the prisoners, are trained in the same way as the “Chmobiks”. There are reports that the morale of Putin’s army has plummeted. Can we count on the fact that the front will “fall apart” due to the fact that the units of the Russian occupying army will simply begin to leave the battlefield and run?
“They are already running. As for the same “Wagnerites”, by the beginning of the full-scale invasion there were about 45 thousand of them in Ukraine, now there are 7 thousand left. That is, it is a very weakened military formation. By and large, PMC “Wagner” is turning into a Nazi paramilitary political organization, trying to make certain political movements within the Russian Federation. If we often compare Putin to Hitler, then Wagner can be compared to the SS.
As for other military formations, there is information that some kind of Cossack detachment is fighting near Ugledar. It is known that the fighters refused to go into battle and follow orders, because they were not provided with the necessary support. They understood that they were actually being sent to be slaughtered. It is also known that individual Russian officers and mid-level commanders also refuse to go into battle.
As for the privates and sergeants, there is generally zero motivation. They do not want to fight and are looking for opportunities to surrender or escape. This was especially noticeable on the left bank of the Dnieper River near Kharkov. There was a complete demoralization of the troops, especially after they were thrown from the right bank. The Russian National Guard came to restore order, and the FSB caught deserters there.
In addition, hazing is widespread in the Russian army, which also does not give power to these armed forces. Relations between Russian servicemen are significantly different from relations in the Ukrainian army.
As for the Kadyrovites, they distinguished themselves with “heroic” videos on TikTok, but when they get into a real battle, they immediately run away. The main function of the “Kadyrovtsy” is still barrage detachments, which they use along the entire line of contact.
But I want to note that today more than half a million have been mobilized in Russia. They are concentrated on three relatively small sectors of the front, where a sufficiently high density of artillery shelling and infantry can be ensured, which rolls in wave after wave, and little by little they manage to advance. I hope that the Ukrainian army will be able to withstand the defense and not spend the available reserves, and then launch the counteroffensive that we all expect.
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