Relatively warm currents from the depths of the Arctic are warmer and closer to the surface than experts thought until now, and come directly into contact with the ice sheet, accelerating winter melting, according to studies by the University of Gothenburg, published in the Journal of Climate.
“This is not good news at all,” said Céline Heuzé, a climatologist at the university and director of one of the studies.
The researchers compared their observations with calculations from 14 models considered by the IPCC, the UN’s intergovernmental panel of experts on climate change, responsible for producing the organization’s main climate reports.
According to them, the influence of the deep waters that circulate in the Arctic from the Atlantic is underestimated.
“The forecasts shared by the IPCC are somewhat optimistic. It will be much worse and will occur faster than predicted”, warned Heuzé, who attributed the difference between his conclusions and forecasts to the lack of expeditions and field observations.
The surface of the ice sheet has decreased, on average, by 9% in winter and 48% in summer since the first satellite photographs were taken in 1979. Since then, its thickness has been reduced by 66%, according to one of the studies.
Last year, a study revealed that the Arctic atmosphere had warmed four times faster than elsewhere over the past 40 years, a ratio that doubles that offered by IPCC models.