VMany Germans are awaiting autumn with a queasy feeling. However, not all for the same reasons. Some worry about how expensive electricity and gas will become. Others fear more the anger of the concerned. The second group includes some political leaders who conjured up ominous scenarios, only to assure them that things shouldn’t come to that. With the result that many in the country now feel even more uneasy. Germany is discussing mass protests that no one knows will happen. That changes the country before anything has happened that would change it in real terms.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock from the Greens was one of the politicians who had warned. She had publicly feared that there would be “popular uprisings” if Germany immediately stopped using Russian gas. That sounds as if a coup is in the air and is only a chancellor’s decision away. And actually, the bad thing about a gas stop would be the ensuing misery of the people and not the protest against it.
Saxony-Anhalt’s Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff, CDU, sees the “worst moments of the Weimar Republic” as a reminder of the possible upcoming Monday demonstrations. Even constitutional protectors fear evil in public. New protests could make past Corona demos appear like a “children’s birthday party”, the head of the Thuringian intelligence agency had predicted.
Uncertainty benefits the extremists
Of course, politicians and heads of authorities have to prepare for everything. Just like doctors before difficult operations. Of course, they don’t work any better the more drastically the doctor describes the patient’s darkest fears beforehand.
Protest researchers are following the debate with astonishment, such as Simon Teune from the Free University of Berlin. He also directs the Institute for Protest and Movement Research, a network of scholars worldwide. Many worry about pessimistic prophecies such as those about popular uprisings: “Such statements really surprise me. This expands the scope of rights and conspiracy believers.” The researcher sees it as part of the strategy of extremists who want a coup that the citizens of the country are unsettled. “When the perception is established that riots are to be expected, everything is read before this slide. Every individual who disrupts a politician’s appearance is then read as a harbinger of these uprisings.” The researcher does not rule out protests in autumn and winter either. It is completely unclear how the situation will develop.
Not everyone who is dissatisfied takes to the streets
However, he also emphasizes that protests for more social justice and redistribution are something completely different from the fight for a coup. There is no tangible basis for expecting a situation of uncontrollability, as right-wing extremists wish for.
The assumption that people immediately take to the streets en masse if they are dissatisfied with their situation is wrong. In order for people to protest at all, they first have to perceive massive grievances and secondly have the impression that they can change something through protests. Third, there must be networks that organize the protests. These networks – parties as well as activists – are getting ready. The left is planning a “hot autumn” against high prices, the AfD demands the same, supplemented by the nationalist motto “Our country first!”. Both parties are calling on their supporters to take to the streets in the coming weeks, they are working on campaigns with information material and programs.