Author: Uday Chandra
The election results of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir show that the political tug of war is still going on in the country. At the same time, the voters, who are becoming clever, are forcing all the parties and alliances to take their demands seriously, otherwise they will have to be prepared for defeat. Apparently, the Bharatiya Janata Party has time to celebrate after scoring a hat-trick in Haryana. There is reason to celebrate. Defying all exit polls, this result was achieved by reducing the presence of former Chief Minister Khattar and Prime Minister Modi. BJP effectively contested the elections as a regional party under the leadership of Chief Minister Saini. Consolidated non-Jat votes in Central Haryana and retained its strongholds in the east and south. Despite a difference of less than 1% of total votes, BJP won 11 more seats than Congress.
riot of thorns
In the Lok Sabha elections held in May, the Congress had a 1.5% lead in votes over the BJP, so it failed to take advantage of the anti-incumbency wave in the state. Most experts attribute the defeat to internal strife in the Congress and excessive dependence on Jat voters. This may be true to some extent. By the way, after refusing to give tickets to many sitting MLAs, BJP too was not free from internal strife.
In the Haryana Assembly elections, both BJP and Congress experienced a decline of more than 5% in votes compared to the Lok Sabha elections held in May. No national party got 40% of the popular votes in the state. In other words, more than 20% of the popular vote went to other smaller parties, including independents.
Now, who were these 20 percent voters who proved to be decisive, what was their social profile, nothing can be said with certainty about this. Yes, it is safe to assume that at least some Dalit voters chose non-Congress, non-BJP candidates. One has to wonder whether Kumari Selja, who led the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections, could have led them to victory in the Assembly this autumn.
Googly of Kashmir
Jammu and Kashmir also gave an interesting and perhaps surprising decision. After a decade, state assembly elections were held there. After separation and delimitation of Ladakh from Jammu and Kashmir, Jammu now has 43 seats and Kashmir Valley has 47 seats. The Lieutenant Governor can nominate 5 more MLAs. This means that in theory a majority of 48 can be achieved without winning a single seat from the Valley. Delimitation also meant that for the first time, 7 Scheduled Caste and 9 Scheduled Tribe assembly constituencies came into existence. Seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes effectively limited Kashmiri Muslim representation in the valley.
INDIA alliance won in all 9 Scheduled Tribe constituencies. It got 49 seats, one more than the majority mark. But even in victory there is reason for introspection. Jammu and Kashmir National Conference won 42 out of 56 seats contested, but Congress could win only 6 out of 38 seats. Particularly in Jammu, the Congress failed to make any inroads as the BJP swept the region. Overall, the vote share of the winning alliance including CPM was 36%, while BJP got 25.6% votes, mainly in Jammu. This shows that in this assembly election, about 40% votes went to 7 victorious independent candidates including others.
demanding voter
If every fifth voter in Haryana and almost every second voter in Jammu and Kashmir choose non-NDA, non-INDIA candidates to represent them in the state assemblies, we must ask what this trend means. Are voters looking beyond the two main national parties to fulfill personal and social aspirations? Does the wide spread of votes, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, suggest a fractured mandate beneath simple win-loss equations? Most importantly, are voters sending a message to the parties and their leaders?
To answer these questions we need to look at post-election voter surveys. But it is clear that the trend of personality-centric politics over the past decade is paving the way for a more pluralistic system in which AAP can also win a seat in Jammu and Kashmir, despite lower total votes than NOTA. Independent candidates have a chance of success even against big national parties. Also, old family firms running under the cover of political parties need to be worried. Mufti and Chautala need to worry. His political future now looks bleak as voters are moving towards performance rather than personality.
Voters bringing parties in line
As voters are becoming smarter, the challenge for both the NDA and INDIA alliances has increased. Election bugle is about to sound in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Every vote counts. Any assembly constituency, any seat cannot be considered safe for anyone. Attractive personality and one-upmanship statements will no longer work like in the past. Voters have concrete demands for socio-economic welfare and democratic representation. Whoever fulfills these dual demands gets a chance to enter legislative bodies. Achieving political power across India is now becoming more than just a throne or a throne, but a responsibility.
If the BJP is worried about the fate of the Mahayuti in Maharashtra, Congress leaders will also have to spend sleepless nights over future seat-sharing arrangements with allies. Our democracy is finally showing signs of working in the public interest. The surprise victory and embarrassed leaders point to an informed electorate. For our leaders, a developed India by 2047 may prove to be more of a rollercoaster ride than a walk in the park.
(The author is a professor at Georgetown University, Qatar)