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Under tension since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the cereals market must also deal with the drought in South America, and in particular in Argentina. Seventh-largest wheat exporter in the world, the country recently revised down its forecasts for the 2022/2023 harvest. In question, an intense drought which affects yields, and which should affect export volumes.
It is a drought that particularly affects the Pampean region, that is to say the productive heart of Argentina. At the origin of this situation, the persistence of “La Niña”, this climatic phenomenon which causes a deficit of precipitation in the southern hemisphere.
The current drought has entered its third consecutive year, the worst since the last century, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Result: the rain is not desired, the water tables are at their lowest and the production of wheat is affected, especially since we must add to this the frost which has appeared late in the Argentine fields in recent years. weeks.
Since June, the Rosario Commodity Exchange has been constantly revising its forecasts for the 2022-2023 harvest. While it was counting on 19 million tonnes last July, the institution’s latest report predicts a harvest of 15 million tonnes of wheat, the worst in the last seven years.
5.5 million tonnes less than in 2021
Production at half mast, which mechanically affects export forecasts. Argentina is expected to sell 9 million tonnes of wheat this year, five and a half million less than last year.
Something to worry Argentine agricultural producers, who fear the introduction of new export restrictions to ensure the supply of wheat on the domestic market. Hypothesis ruled out last week by the Argentine Secretary of State for Agriculture.
Still, these pessimistic forecasts come in a complicated international context, marked of course by the war in Ukraine. If the prospect of a global food crisis had been averted for a time by the Black Sea cereals initiative, it could resurface in the coming weeks. Indeed, this agreement signed in July by Russia and Ukraine under the aegis of the UN and Turkey expires on November 22, and has not been renewed to date.