The researchers of the Institute for National Security Studies INSS, who understand a thing or two about the bombastic term “Israel’s security”, stood in front of the cameras at an oppressive afternoon of late March, listed and detailed the immediate dangers posed to Israel by the coup d’état promoted by the coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
The strategic warning they formulated is rare in its exceptionality, and the first of its kind. She warns of a deterioration to an unprecedented low in relations with the US, talks about the widening of the rift in society to the point of the intensification of security, political and economic threats, and above all warns of mortal harm to the IDF to the point of its disintegration.
This damage is already being felt in the field, stirring and shaking the reserve formation and quickly seeping into the permanent and regular formations. Judging by what happened last weekend around one of the bonfires in Kaplan, when pre-draft boys set fire to the orders they had received, then it is already gnawing at the next generation of soldiers. “We are in a very dangerous situation,” warns Lt. Col. Dr. Ariel Hayman, former IDF Chief Reserve Officer and senior researcher for the military and society at INSS.
He is a geologist by training, and it is clear that he is good at identifying the gross displacements and frictions of tectonic plates, those that are visible and felt in these terrible days like a fist that paralyzes the diaphragm, and those that are hidden from it and are measured on a scale of magnitude.
He warns that both there and there, Israel is already at the stage after the sirens of truth have been activated: “The boys who burned the orders to report to the recruiting offices are particularly worrying because those who are in the army, such as the regular and regular soldiers, are already within the military framework and subject to some kind of influence. In contrast, the candidates for the security service , the Malshabim, are not affected by the military system, exposed and violated by the civilian environment like friends and family members. The continuation of the crisis and its deepening into this layer will create a great threat to the strength of the army.”
For better or for worse, the ones who lit this match are the reservists who also take a central part in the fight against the coup. What drove them crazy?
“They feel that they have run out of the country, and for them their unwillingness to volunteer is the button they can press to have an impact. People have the ability to press and influence where they can. The General Histadrut took an unusual step last week and started a general strike because it has the power and the ability to do it.” .
We were constantly warned that if you mix politics with the army it could explode. Have we lost the brakes?
“For 75 years, there have been governments of the left and the right, and there has not been a war that soldiers did not go to on the grounds that they did not trust the government or the leader who sends them into battle. Many of the reservists now feel that their tools are being broken, that Israel is becoming a different country, and for their part, they are reacting to a sudden change in the contract theirs with the state. A reservist who serves 40 days a year for 20 years sees himself as someone who has accumulated valuable capital. Says that he earned this right honestly, because he contributes and gives and is ready to die with his plane or with his tank, and for him it is legitimate for him to use it now. He Says that if he doesn’t react now to the moves that are taking place, there is no assurance that when he wants to react later he will actually be able to do it, because the rules of the game are changing.”
But there is also another side and there is also a task that is more important than anything and for which we gathered in the first place – protecting the security of the country in the face of threats that are intensifying, deterrence that lingers on the fronts and capabilities that an army like the IDF has to preserve.
“There are reservists who are in favor of continuing the legislation, and on their side there is no problem standing up in any situation and in any case. Our reserve system is torn and both reasons are weighty. I am personally torn between them, just as a reservist who announces that he will not volunteer is torn within himself. He also knows what is happening on the ground, that Israel is not Poland and not Hungary in terms of the situation at the borders. Apart from the revolution, we have serious threats, and we cannot afford to harm the IDF. We are really neither Costa Rica nor the Netherlands. We cannot be weak.”
Is the military’s competence compromised? Because with all due respect to all of us, Iran is already a nuclear threshold country, it is getting closer and closer to Russia, China and Saudi Arabia, Hezbollah is showing suspicious excitement towards the situation.
“A week or two or even two months of not training or not flying does not break up an army’s operational service. There is almost no pilot or reservist who does not travel abroad, even for long periods, so he does not train for a long time. I’m more concerned about the permeation of this trend into the ranks of permanent servants because there it will cause good minds to flee, and in any case there is a deep crisis in the ranks of officers at the ranks of captain and major which the army wants to preserve.”
Is Israel’s security compromised these days?
“I think so. The enemy sees what is happening in our internal affairs and our deterrence in his eyes is compromised. He can understand that the degree of legitimacy that the government can receive from the public in order to go to war is not very high. Think of the scenarios of fighting with Gaza, of heavy barrages of rockets on the home front, on The cities of the south and the cities of the center, and the willingness of the public to sit in shelters for two months so that the army can fight. It is our security resilience that has been damaged.”
Do you see a scenario where Hezbollah takes advantage of the chaos in Israel and launches an attack?
“If a war breaks out tomorrow, there will be 100% stabilization and there is no discussion about it. I have no doubt that anywhere, when Nasrallah is debating whether to make one offensive move or another against Israel, he understands that any such action will only unite us and therefore he concludes that it is not worthwhile for him to intervene.”
Heyman served as the IDF’s first chief reserve officer between 2002 and 2005, during a turbulent security period that spanned the entire axis of the second intifada and with it the operation of a protective wall in Jenin, the disengagement plan and the evacuation of Gush Katif and northern Samaria, until the trauma of the IDF’s departure to the Second Lebanon War in 2006 without being prepared for it.
According to him, “there was no surprise around the level of preparedness that existed and no one hid the situation. At any given moment the army has to decide how it uses its resources. In some moments they invest more and in other moments they invest less.”
His appointment by the then Chief of Staff and Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz and Binyamin (Fouad) Ben Eliezer was preceded by years of service in the positions of the Armored Corps, up to the position of Chief of Staff and Chief of Staff of the Reserve Division. He did his regular service in a general patrol.
If the Third Lebanon War breaks out tomorrow morning, what reserve formation will stand against Hezbollah?
“Since 2006, there have been several waves of efforts to increase the number of reserve days and to improve the equipment and the general readiness of the reserve formation, so in my opinion the situation of the formation today is better than it was during the Second Lebanon War. However, it is not of a high standard. It lacks equipment, lacks Reserve days for training and the blanket in general are short. Both the reserve formation would like to train more and the army would like to train it more and buy more for it and equip it with the best and most advanced equipment, but there is a resource limit.”
In general, this is an arrangement whose scope is small. They are few, the reserves.
“They are a total of 1.5%-1% of Israeli society and that’s nothing. After all, between the ages of 0 and 21 there are no reserves and over the age of 45 the army already releases, so we have the group of ages 22 to 45 who have served in the army and were in combat positions or combat supporters From this age group we will exclude the ultra-Orthodox, the Arabs, those who served in office positions or have a trade that the reserve system does not need, so that in the end there are not many people left.
“Actually, the need for reservists as far as Israeli society is concerned is becoming less and less. If you used to walk down the street in reservist uniforms, they would roll out red carpets for you. Today, not everyone is proud of it. Others may call them suckers, this is even though the reservist doesn’t feel like a sucker. He has Completely different motives that make him a reservist such as mission, company, personal status and meaning.”
And what is the state of this formation before the struggle against the coup?
“Fragile. He is not properly rewarded, neither morally nor financially, and his current situation requires the construction of a new model on the basis of which he will operate. According to the law, a reserve battalion can carry out operational employment once every three years, and shortly before the protest broke out and regardless of it, the army decided which will be twice in three years due to the security situation and the increase in the volume of activity. They will demand more and more from the horse, the horse will give and do until it stops.”
And in addition to all these, something basic between the state and the reservists has also broken during the last months. Not to mention toxic and unprecedented attacks aimed at them by government ministers.
“Many balances have been broken here and we are in a serious problem. Over the years, the concept has been established that there is a secret contract between the reservist and the state. According to this secret contract, the state can demand from the reservist that he give his all in the service. That he show up for training, that he dedicates his time to it, that he brings his energies and all His abilities, and if necessary, he will also sacrifice his life. On the other hand, the reservist expects a return from the state in the form of recognition and appreciation and that he will be given valuable tasks.”
That is, that no one will one day give him the order to “wipe out Hvara” or to bomb a house that is being shot from, even at the cost of harming innocent people.
“True. And the reservists say that Israel is becoming an undemocratic country and for their part they cannot trust that the tasks they will receive in the future will be in the same spirit as when they signed their secret contract with the state. On the one hand, the state requires them to volunteer and sacrifice, and on the other hand, violates its agreements with them Under the new conditions that the state is trying to dictate, they will not be willing to volunteer.”
Are we talking about volunteering or a legal obligation?
“According to the law, it is mandatory, but de facto the reserve system is based on volunteering. Anyone who does not want to serve in the reserves will find a sore toe or a sick grandmother to avoid. On the other hand, anyone who has been happy up to this moment has not refused a legal order. The reserve law clearly regulates How many times can a reservist be called up each year, how much notice should he be given and more. Except that in the case of pilots, MPs and generals who have to report to their units with high frequency, they are always in deviation from what is stipulated in the law and therefore they volunteer. If they are called as part of an order Legally, they will come, but they will not volunteer in a country that violated its contract with them.”
Is this whole crisis reversible? Is there more to save or have we already crossed every Rubicon and every possible line?
“Enormous damage has already been done. If we assume that everything is stopped from now on, the entire legislation is shelved and not just this one, because there is also the increase through which they plan to exempt ultra-Orthodox from service and additional laws that are supposed to serve as the broad envelope of the legislation – there is still a chance.”
In the meantime, we hear Miri Regev promising that the work of legislation will resume immediately after Independence Day.
“I am worried about these voices. Given a situation where all the laws are passed, it is difficult for me to anticipate the intensity of the earthquake that will be here and its implications. It could be a national disaster of the highest degree that will also lead to a weakening of the IDF’s operational capabilities.”
The extensive preoccupation with legislation to weaken the justice system and its takeover of the agenda pushed to the margins the much-needed discussions about the catastrophe that lurks for the State of Israel or the State of Judah, for the enlightened democracy or the dark dictatorship that may yet raise its head here in the name of an experienced prime minister accused of horrific corruption. We hardly talk about the actual earthquake that threatens Israel. A reminder that everything could be much worse was received last February in the form of a series of earthquakes that struck southern Turkey and Syria and sowed destruction, destruction and many deaths.
1 Viewing the gallery
Transport Minister Miri Regev. Guarantees that the work of legislation will resume after Independence Day
(Photography: Yoav Dudkevich)
It seems to have passed us by the ear. Did not move here to anyone.
“This earthquake put a huge spotlight on us, on Israel. It will happen here as well. I was interviewed about it wherever I could, I asked all the decision makers to look at or be interested for just 5 minutes a day in Shukura these days in Turkey, in the hope that it will convince them to do something.”
And did anything come of it?
“The state budget was presented, but no one stood up and said that we learned lessons from what is happening in Turkey, and therefore we decided to allocate 5 billion shekels to strengthen buildings. They do not deal with it, and here I am talking about the non-political bureaucracy in the government ministries. For their part, none of the ministers insisted on seeing plans Work towards dealing with an earthquake”.
“The government’s attribution scenario speaks of 7,000 dead, half a million people without a roof over their heads at least in the first stage, and a quarter of a million people who will not be allowed to return to their homes at any stage.”
Where will we house them?
“Tent cities, I guess. The systems are not prepared for this. People will live in tents for years and years. Think how long it takes to build new houses. And before that you have to clear the rubble. There is no body here with responsibility, authority and budgets that trusts an earthquake while it is happening , in the days after it happens and in the weeks and months that follow, and will be responsible for restoring the destruction and treating the victims.”
The handling around this threat looks like one big pushback. which is something you just don’t want to touch.
“This is an interesting sociological question. After all, a strong and destructive earthquake is not a question of whether, but a question of when. It can happen in the middle of the order and it can happen in 30 years. The government does deal with the climate crisis, even though we can probably deal with it tomorrow morning and whoever is If he had an air conditioner at home, he would be fine. But when it comes to earthquakes, she doesn’t do anything, even though a lot can and should be done. I guess it’s so big on them that they give up in advance and say that whatever will happen will happen.”