Arizona Governor’s Race Takes Shape as Battleground State Remains Divided
Arizona is poised to be a key contest in the 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state’s dramatic shift from a Republican stronghold to a fiercely contested battleground. The race is already attracting national attention, fueled by the state’s complex political landscape and the increasing importance of state-level policymaking.
Once reliably Republican, Arizona has become a critical swing state in recent years. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly flipped the state to the Democratic column, winning by just 10,000 votes. The 2022 midterm elections further solidified this trend, with Democrats securing victories in races for U.S. Senate, governor, and attorney general – a rare feat that resulted in a slate of Democratic statewide elected officials operating alongside a Republican-controlled state legislature. Even in 2024, despite President Donald Trump carrying the state in the presidential election by over five points, Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego secured his seat.
Hobbs Weighs Re-election Bid as GOP Field Forms
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, elected in 2022, indicated in 2024 that she is “actively raising funds for reelection,” though she has not yet formally launched a campaign. The Republican primary, however, is already shaping up to be a contentious affair, promising significant national investment and scrutiny.
Notably, Donald Trump has endorsed both Rep. Andy Biggs, a prominent member of the hard-line Freedom Caucus, and Karrin Taylor Robson, an attorney and businesswoman. Robson previously ran in the 2024 Republican primary for U.S. Senate, but was defeated by Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee who ultimately lost to Gallego.
[Image of Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Andy Biggs at the Capitol on July 2, 2025. (Francis Chung/POLITICO/AP)]
The Rise of State-Level Power
The intensifying focus on Arizona’s gubernatorial race reflects a broader trend: the increasing importance of governors and state legislatures in shaping policy. As the U.S. Supreme Court and Congress have increasingly delegated policymaking authority on issues like abortion, child care, and LGBTQ+ rights to the states, these state-level actors have gained unprecedented visibility and influence.
Arizona has been at the epicenter of this shift, particularly regarding abortion rights. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal abortion protections in 2022, the state experienced a period of legal uncertainty. In 2024, the legislature repealed a pre-statehood 1864 abortion ban after a court ruling temporarily reinstated it. However, Arizona voters ultimately approved a constitutional amendment in the 2024 election guaranteeing a right to abortion in the state.
National Implications for 2026
The Arizona governor’s race is just one of 36 governorships that will be contested in 2026. Five states currently led by Democrats – Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – were won by Trump in the 2024 presidential election, making them prime targets for Republican challenges. Conversely, two Republican governors in states carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris – New Hampshire and Vermont – will also be facing reelection battles.
These contests will undoubtedly shape the political landscape for years to come, highlighting the critical role states play in the American political system.
