2024-03-07 12:06:19
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has put himself and his country in a very serious geopolitical trap. The promises made to France, Russia, Greece, Iran, and India have now been implemented in order to activate diplomatic, political and economic relations with Arab countries.
Iravan tries to use all the means he considers necessary and necessary to get out of the difficult situation, but every new step makes his situation a little more critical.
The situation is so confusing that the official Yerevan has twisted its geopolitical landmarks into a Gordian knot.
For example, Armenia, which emphasizes that it has taken a firm and irrevocable position in order to activate its partnership with the West, at the same time is intensifying relations with Iran under the instructions of France.
Even the Minister of Defense of Armenia, Suren Papikyan, went on an official visit to Iran.
Not the minister of culture, economy, finance of Armenia – but the minister of defense.
Armenia, which participated in the “Democracy Summit” initiated by US President Joe Biden and declared by Washington as “a country with a democratic society oriented towards the West”, thus expands its contacts with Iran, which the United States declares as the “second enemy” after China.
At first glance, it is a paradox: Armenia, which the Americans call “loyal to democracy”, is in very active contact with Iran, the “autocratic, clerical and terrorist-supporting regime” of the United States, mutual relations are constantly developing.
A truly unique situation can be observed in the South Caucasus: the interests of the West and Iran completely coincide in issues related to Armenia.
Let’s take a look at the situation.
Relations with Armenia and especially the 44-day Second Karabakh War, implemented by the Azerbaijani Army on September 19 of last year, completely new, different geopolitical realities have formed in the region. In the current situation, the Armenian-Iranian relations, which were already active before, are now developing at a hyper-speed.
It is for this reason that the visit of Armenian Defense Minister S. Papikyan to Iran is not a coincidence, but an expected and inevitable visit.
The main priority and goal of Yerevan in our region is to gain regional influence and get the levers of intervention in the processes in the region. For Tehran, relations with Armenia are of particular importance, not with Azerbaijan or Georgia – despite all statements.
Armenia is in the South Caucasus what Syria is to Iran in the Middle East, and there are various reasons for this.
Official Tehran, which considers the fraternal relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan and excessive alliance relations in the region to be absolutely incompatible with its geopolitical interests, considers contacts with Yerevan necessary to prevent further strengthening of Ankara-Baku relations.
In terms of communication and logistics routes between the West and Iran, Iran has two options: the routes that pass through the territory of Turkey and Armenia, as well as those that may pass through it. Tehran believes that if there is a cooling in relations with Yerevan, it will become dependent on Turkey in terms of routes to the West. In order to prevent the events from developing in the way we are talking about, Tehran constantly activates relations with Yerevan for the purpose of “diversification”.
For Iran, which is trying to soften its relations with the West, Armenia is of special importance from this aspect. He intends to take advantage of the numerous Armenian diaspora in Western countries, and if necessary, use it against the Jewish diaspora organizations that are in close cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey. In addition, Tehran considers Armenian diaspora structures as a convenient tool to influence the power elites of the United States, as well as NATO and European Union member states.
As for the Armenian community in Iran, the fact that these Armenians have a privileged status is necessary for official Tehran to obtain a different state image in the eyes of the West than the Middle Eastern countries where there is a tolerant and radical approach to Christians.
Iran intends to take advantage of Western pressure on Azerbaijan and expand its influence in our country.
For this reason, we see the point that makes the situation unique: in relation to Azerbaijan, the positions of a number of Western countries, especially France, coincide with the interests of Iran.
In fact, France also demands from Yerevan the activation of relations between Armenia and Iran, and due to the mentioned point, Iran shows tolerance to France’s activity in Armenia and to the establishment of a spy-residency network in Armenia under the name of European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMA).
In addition to all this, Armenia’s obvious pro-Western policy and attempts to get out of Russia’s influence worry Tehran.
He does not want the situation in the South Caucasus to deteriorate sharply, Armenia to become a “second Ukraine”. Iran is currently using Russia to achieve its goal, i.e. to put pressure on Armenia, and it strives to limit the policy of Armenians directed towards the West.
It is clear that the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, is pursuing a clearly pro-Western policy, trying to get rid of the status of Moscow’s outpost by minimizing Russia’s influence. He is eager to prolong the process aimed at signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, to postpone the discussions as soon as possible by taking a position of delay.
N. Pashinyan also believes that the signing of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan will create very serious opportunities for Armenia to get rid of Russia’s influence. But the fact is that the signing of the peace agreement can make it difficult for Pashinyan to work with the West, in addition to depriving the West of serious levers of pressure on Armenia.
Due to the reasons listed, N. Pashinyan is inclined to prolong the negotiation process and wait for a “favorable chance”.
Of course, official Baku will not give him such “chances”.
As for Russia, any activity of Nikol Pashinyan in the direction of signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan or activating relations with Western countries is considered by Moscow as an activity directed against its interests in the South Caucasus.
Nikol Pashinyan’s strategic mistakes are clear.
He should have accepted the fair conditions of Azerbaijan, which are within the framework of international law, should sign the peace agreement as soon as possible, and only after that should intensify the communications with the West.
The prime minister of Armenia has found himself in a desperate situation because, in addition to Russia, the United States, France, the European Union, Russia and Iran demand his active action.