2024-02-28 18:13:42
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
Based on the demands and instructions of France, Armenia is preparing a new armed provocation on the border with Azerbaijan. The goal of Yerevan is to capture several positions or heights.
Playing with matches given by France, Pashinyan can burn the house to ashes instead of lighting the stove that will heat his house called Armenia.
This may be the result of the processes taking place. Rather, it will.
… France is rapidly escalating the situation in the South Caucasus, preparing Armenia for a new military operation.
Thus, a cooperation agreement was signed between the French Unified Foreign Political and Military Intelligence Service (Direction générale de la Sécurité extérieure, DGSE) and the National Security Service of Armenia.
The agreement envisages the exchange of intelligence information between Paris and Yerevan on 4 countries – Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and Turkey.
In addition, Paris will provide Yerevan with information received through satellites about the military and political situation along the borders of Armenia.
Meanwhile, the military instructors of the French Ministry of Defense gave “preliminary information” about their activities in Armenia for two months. They train Armenian soldiers to operate in combat conditions of special purpose and mountain-shooting units.
It is emphasized that the exercises will continue for two months.
There are many reasons why France armed Armenia, promised support to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at all levels and levels, and used almost all of the levers and tools it has to turn Yerevan into a real geopolitical power in the region.
On September 19 of last year, after the local anti-terrorist measures carried out by the Azerbaijani army, the remnants of the Armenian armed forces calmed down. The relative calm on our conventional state border with Armenia lasted for about 5 months, and on February 12 of this year, Armenia deliberately tried to escalate the situation to the extreme and fired sniper fire at our positions on the conventional border.
As a result of the “Revenge” retaliatory operation carried out by the State Border Service, the Armenian position where sniper fire was opened and 4 militants of the “Yerkrapa” Volunteer Union in Armenia were destroyed.
Azerbaijan is trying to activate the negotiation process aimed at signing a peace agreement with Armenia. Within the framework of this process, issues such as demarcation and delimitation of the conventional state border, re-opening of the Zangezur corridor project, normalization of relations and restoration of communications are also considered.
The Armenian leadership, while not breaking their traditional behavior, emphasizes in their statements that they are inclined to peace, that they want to sign a peace agreement with Baku as soon as possible, but that “Azerbaijan is preparing for a new military operation” and “trying to escalate the situation”.
At the same time, France, which is active in the region, pushes Armenia to a new armed conflict and tries to increase its influence in the region through Armenians.
A scenario of a possible armed provocation against Azerbaijan was also prepared in Paris.
According to that scenario, the servicemen of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia should fire at the positions of our army at the conventional state border with large-caliber weapons and mortars, and then attempt to attack. The goal is to capture several positions or heights in the territory of Azerbaijan, thereby forcing Azerbaijan to take a harsh response.
As soon as the action takes place, in accordance with the mentioned scenario, first in the mass media of Armenia and France, and then in a number of Western countries, news such as “Azerbaijani soldiers are firing on the territory of Armenia, trying to capture the territories and carry out the occupation” should appear. Those news should become part of a large-scale information-propaganda campaign targeting Azerbaijan.
Thus, the information background of the new escalation in the South Caucasus, the propaganda ground of the planned provocation of Armenia against Azerbaijan under the direct leadership and control of France will be prepared.
The goal is to convince the people of Garo countries that “brutal and powerful Azerbaijan attacked innocent and weak Armenia”.
In the scenario we are talking about, France’s goal is to strengthen its presence in the region through Armenia and Armenians in general, to reduce Russia’s influence on Armenia, and in the future, to weaken Russia’s position in the South Caucasus and to achieve Moscow’s departure from the region.
It also uses the European Union’s Observation-Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA) to achieve its Paris goals. EUMA expands its agency network in Armenia through residents and spies sent from Paris to Yerevan and does not forget to share with Paris the information obtained through its “observations” on the conventional state border with Azerbaijan.
Escalation at the conditional state border gives the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and his team a successful move to strengthen their position in the country’s internal politics.
But Nikol Pashinyan, who is a complete dilettante in diplomacy and geopolitics, is also wrong this time.
France, which wants to turn Armenia into a place of conflict between the West and Russia, is making a new, very serious mistake.
Emmanuel Macron does not take into account the geopolitical realities formed in the South Caucasus as a result of the results of the 44-day Second Karabakh War, the balance of forces in the region and, most importantly, the positions of the major states that have an interest in the region.
At the same time, he forgets the main, principled position of the USA and the European Union with the region – to support the processes aimed at creating appropriate conditions by facilitating the signing of the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia as soon as possible.
Such forgetfulness can lead to a new fiasco in foreign policy for France and a disaster for Armenia.