What is behind President Biden’s unexpected recognition of the Armenian genocide in 1915? To remember the forgotten war in Nagorno Karabakh on April 24th there was an improvised flash mob in the morning in Piazza Duomo.
April 24, 1915: a recurrence of a genocide that cost one and a half million victims that the coordination of Christian-inspired churches finally wanted to remember in the afternoon: community of Sant’Egidio, Roman Catholic church, Anglican church and some Armenian fathers concelebrated in front of the Catholic university, raising a dutiful prayer for peace, while cannons roar over the mountains of the troubled Caucasus plowed by oil pipelines, towards a stele raised in the lawn in front of the university.
In the evening then, Biden’s unexpected decision to denounce the Armenian genocide by the Turks… The writer Clemente Ultimo recently published a historical essay on the geopolitical puzzle of the Caucasus (The great game of the Caucasus – Nagorno Karabakh, the ghost country in the geopolitical match between Russia, USA and Turkey, Ed. Passage to the forest) and explains the situation in Armenia.
“The Caucasus is much closer than it may seem. And they also prove it the recent events of the TAP, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline: the gas pipeline that has its landing point in Puglia starts from the Caucasus, from the Caspian natural gas fields under control of Azerbaijan. A country that has built its fortune on energy wealth. And its alliances: courted by Western nations – including Italy, which Azerbaijan is the first trading partner even if with a system of government that seems reductive to define an “authoritarian democracy” (as well as hereditary). Some of the oil and gas pipelines pass through those lands they supply Europe with the energy it needs to support its economic development and lifestyle “
So here’s the big game? Underlines Clemente Ultimo: “Yes, it is the Eurasian “great game” – Russia, USA, Turkey and, in a secondary role, France and Israel. I remember that in September 1991, the Azeris declared independence and in December the Nagorno-Artsakh, supported by Armenia, declared his own. The word went to arms. In the heart of the Caucasus, as Europe grieves and falls back into the Chinese virus pandemic, you keep fighting and dying. Bomb after bomb, carnage after slaughter, slaughter after slaughter. The Armenians are dying, the Azeris are advancing, while the network of oil pipelines and businesses surrounding Artsakh and Armenia is becoming more and more dense “
Clemente Ultimo in his essay he describes clearly the political and military diplomatic tangle which takes place in distant – but so close – Armenia: “Moscow does not want to undermine its relations with Baku: doing so would negative repercussions on the Russian economy and above all it would open new windows of opportunity for US diplomacy. In a strategic area for the Russian Federation. Better, therefore, to reserve to themselves the role of referee between the two contenders. By carefully dosing openings and “calls”: in this way Russia remains an irreplaceable partner for Armenia, also very closely linked to Moscow from an economic point of view, and of the utmost importance for Azerbaijan ”.
How do you explain Biden’s sudden exit recognizing the Armenian genocide? “It is a clear sign that Washington’s attitude towards Ankara changed after Biden and Trump took over in the White House. For some time, Turkey has had several points of friction with the United States, especially in its attempt to conquer a much wider space and geopolitical role than in the past. An effort that the US does not see in a negative way, but which cannot be tolerated at the moment the Turks “flirt” with the Russians, see Turkey’s purchase of Russian-made anti-aircraft defense systems. Indeed, the new Turkish power policy for the Americans makes sense – therefore it can be tolerated – only if Ankara carries out a role of containment of the Russia in its projection towards the Mediterranean and if it continues to cause instability on the margins of the Federation, as happened last year in the Caucasus with the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
That said, the recognition of the Armenian genocide is undoubtedly a good result for Armenia, above all because US pressure on Turkey is increasing, as shown by the harsh reactions to Biden’s statement from Ankara: for Erdogan the statement by the US president is nothing more than an interference in domestic political matters ”. But do the oil pipelines pass through Nagorno Karabaskh? “No, Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia are cut off from the major oil and gas transport lines to the west. A non-random choice: following the arrival of Western companies in the region, routes were studied that were beyond Russian control, even indirectly; Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh were considered too close to Moscow, therefore Georgia was preferred for the passage of oil and gas pipelines. However, it is clear that the entire region is strategic for European energy supplies, the instability in Nagorno Karabakh or Georgia, just to give a couple of examples, can have direct and heavy impacts for the ‘Europe”.
And the role of Italy? What could a new foreign minister do? “Italy has chosen silence during the war last autumn. A silence behind which are hidden – but only for those who do not want to see – the great economic interests of the beautiful country: in 2020 Italy was the first trading partner of Azerbaijan, Italian investments in the Azerbaijani energy sector are substantial – Tap itself is nothing more than the arrival point of Azerbaijani gas in Europe – and the defense sector is also very active. The next trainers of the Azerbaijani Air Force will be made in Italy, as well as the artillery of the Caspian fleet. Italians are the first foreign companies to have obtained contracts for reconstruction in the territories conquered from the Armenians in the 2020 war.
A dense network of interests that led Italy to forget the age-old friendship with Armenia, also renouncing a role of direct mediation, as had been attempted in the early 90s by the agonizing First Republic. As for the future: no doubt a new foreign minister could hardly do worse than the current one, certainly the worst in 76 years of republican history. The real problem, however, is that regardless of who holds that position, Italy lacks a vision of foreign policy, an idea about the role you want to play on the international scene. Thus we end up confusing foreign policy with foreign trade ”.
Finally comment Marco Valle in the preface of Clemente’s book: “” Among the many hypotheses experienced, the mediation proposed through the “Minsk group” by Gianni De Michelis, as controversial as he is skilled foreign minister. Lucidly, the Venetian politician glimpsed on the ashes of the Communist empire, the possibility of recovering an autonomous role and perspective for Italy in an area that promised to be important for its oil resources. An ambitious (and perhaps unrealistic) project that he even resumed some lines of post-Versailles foreign policy – the Orlando government in 1919 planned an expedition to Georgia – and projected them into an unprecedented and fascinating dimension. The negotiations started in Rome under good auspices – De Michelis proposed the South Tyrol model – but quickly everything got bogged down in reciprocal claims and parallel grudges, while Armenia conquered a physical corridor with the province. There were no further talks and shortly thereafter Tangentopoli arrived and its known consequences. Since then, our presence or / and influence in the theaters that matter is now irrelevant ”. Today with a good soul turned off, to remember the dream of De Michelis there is only the tragedy of Nagorno Karabakh. And the prayers of the Milanese ecumenical group in front of the Armenian cross of the Armenian martyrs of 1915.