“As a scientist, I feel very uncomfortable”

by time news

Germany discusses 2G and compulsory vaccination; In Austria a general vaccination requirement has already been decided. Opposition to a tough course is ironed out more and more sharply. Frank Plasberg recently asked: “Just no compulsion: Is our vaccination policy too cowardly?” Ad-hoc opinion of his academy spoke.

Given the current rhetoric, I feel very uncomfortable as a scientist. To avoid misunderstandings: Without a doubt, the coming winter will be a challenge for Germany, and it would be hoped that the protection of vulnerable groups with the help of vaccinations will be better than last year. Advice on vaccination is not my topic; that belongs above all in the doctor’s office. But what worries me is how politics, parts of the media and unfortunately also some colleagues communicate and imagine decision-making processes. Much of what is proclaimed as irrefutable “in the name of science” does not stand up to closer examination.

In a pamphlet, for example, I recently highlighted that there were considerable deficits in the use of mathematical models to predict the occurrence of infection and that the reality is far more complex than it is commonly spread. I’ve pointed out that there are natural mechanisms that can break the exponential growth of epidemics, and many models make biased predictions because they fail to do justice to the complexity of the spread of infection.

Arguments against Joshua Kimmich turn out to be rash

I also worked out that very detailed simulations of the infection process also have their pitfalls. The Berliner Zeitung took up my rather technical paper more gratefully and basically underestimated one aspect of my criticism. Because it was less about better recipes for pandemic simulations, but more about the fact that in the heat of the moment they often worked naively and even ignored textbook knowledge from mathematical epidemiology. Politicians and large parts of the media then make very self-confident judgments and decisions on the basis of half-knowledge.

When it comes to compulsory vaccination, it seems to me that similar mechanisms are at play. It is very strange, for example, that the President of the Leopoldina packs his suggestions for expanding the 2G rule and a job-related vaccination requirement in the foreword of a statement that does not seek to provide any scientific justification for these measures. Her topic was actually antiviral drugs. And the arguments with which a 26-year-old Joshua Kimmich is labeled a “social pest” turn out to be premature on closer inspection, to put it mildly. Hardly any of his critics are likely to persist on the blackboard if he had to assess whether the free decision of young men Kimmich’s age over three or four years actually had a significant impact on the disease burden caused by COVID-19.

The idea that vaccination could end the pandemic with permanently low infection numbers is still haunted in many minds, apparently even with Lothar Wieler, the President of the RKI. In view of the known parameters of vaccination, this is as absurd from the point of view of mathematical epidemiology as the belief that a glass would not fall on the floor after letting go if you hold it down long enough beforehand. But judgments made from the gut are simply more convenient.

The reality could hardly be further from the ideal that Wieler had in mind in spring 2020 – the happy rescue of the Apollo 13 crew don’t make it worse by guessing. ”It wasn’t pathos and overzealous experimentation that the Apollo 13 crew brought safely back to the ground. It was serene, unexcited professionalism. Everyone knew the necessary manuals and checklists, everyone knew about the importance of transparent cooperation, everyone knew that they had to function one hundred percent reliably in their area of ​​responsibility. The executives understood that they couldn’t muddle through with superficial visions and persuasion.

Instead, thanks to detailed knowledge and consideration of the situation from all sides, they were able to find a workable solution, despite all uncertainties. They knew that they were trusted not simply because of their position, but because of their competence, honesty, and ability to listen and learn. The lesson had been learned from Apollo 1, where three astronauts were killed in a capsule fire during an exercise.

Claim to authority without competence?

Given the example of other countries, we should ask ourselves whether one can achieve more with such an understanding of leadership and realistic goals than with excessive claims to authority. If one had immediately focused on boosters for vulnerable groups instead of necessarily bringing vaccinations to schools with questionable reasons, we might be better positioned. If you want everything out of excess, you end up doing everything badly. It is quite possible that Bavaria and Austria of all places, as standard bearers of the hard line, will look worse after the winter wave than the much scolded Sweden, which also has the disadvantage of a higher degree of urbanization. Unexpected twists and turns in winter are unlikely to give you food for thought.

Regardless of the question of the right vaccination strategy, we should keep an eye on the permanent damage that can be caused if the authority’s claim to authority and the competence of the management staff are not in balance. If the current decision-making culture solidifies, a big bang is programmed at some point.

Bernhard Müller received his doctorate at TUM in 2009 with a thesis on neutrino radiation transport in star explosions that was prepared at the Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics (MPA). He has been an Associate Professor at Monash University in Australia since 2021. His research on supernova explosions and the final stages of massive stars is largely based on complex simulations on high-performance computers. Fluid mechanics, radiation transport, nuclear physics, neutrino physics and the theory of relativity are incorporated here.

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