While the incursion into the Kursk region yielded tangible political and military gains, and many Ukrainians cheered their military’s offensive in the hope that it would force the Kremlin to divert resources to the new front and turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favor, the results of the attack also raised questions.
This week’s frontline breakthrough in the strategic Donetsk region sparked a backlash against the leadership in Kyiv, with some critics saying Ukraine’s position had weakened as thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops were deployed for the Kursk operation.
Russian forces are closing in on the strategic city of Pokrovsk, seizing several nearby towns this week and forcing poorly armed Ukrainian units to withdraw from prepared defensive positions.
According to the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight, Pokrovsk is one of the two most important railway and road junctions in the Donetsk region, so its loss would threaten the logistics of the Ukrainian military in the entire region.
Satellite images analyzed by open-source researchers from Finland-based Black Bird Group show that Russian forces are now just 8km from Pokrovsk.
In response, local authorities ordered the evacuation of residents of the area.
Criticizes management
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst with the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, called the situation in the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk “a complete failure of defense.”
“It’s not the fault of the regular soldiers holding positions,” he wrote on the Telegram social network. “The problem is with those who make decisions for these soldiers.”
Several soldiers in the region have expressed concern about the defenses around Pokrovsk.
Zhenya, a Ukrainian soldier of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade who fought in last year’s grueling 10-month Battle of Bakhmut, described the rapidly deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk.
In an open assessment on the X social network, he criticized the military’s command structure, pointing to systemic errors and inadequate response to changing battlefield conditions.
“Honestly, I’ve never seen anything like it. Everything falls apart so quickly, he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bachmut.”
Ukrainian troops this week withdrew from Novohrodivka, located 8 km southeast of Pokrovsk. The Center for Defense Strategies, a Kyiv-based security think tank, said the withdrawal showed a lack of defense resources, despite Pokrovsk being an important logistics hub.
Mariana Bezuhla, a member of the Defense Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament, shared photos on Facebook from her visit to the front line near Novokhrodivka last week. She said that it shows a wide open road to Pokrovsk.
“The trenches in front of Novohrodivka were empty. Once 20 thousand the Ukrainian army was practically absent in the city that had a population,” she wrote in a scathing post.
Chaos at the front
The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s army, General Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a statement on Thursday that he visited the Pokrovsk region and is working to strengthen the defense of the country’s soldiers in the most difficult areas of the front, to provide the brigades with a sufficient amount of ammunition and other means.
During a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, V. Zelensky described the situation on the front near Pokrovsk as “extremely difficult,” but said that Russian progress in the area had slowed down after Ukraine’s offensive near Kursk.
In fact, Russian forces have advanced faster in Donetsk since Aug. 6 than in previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State, a Ukrainian group closely linked to Ukraine’s defense ministry that monitors frontline movements.
“There is complete chaos,” said Deep State spokesman Roman Pohorilij, referring to the collapse of major cities such as Novohrodivka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk.
Over the past three weeks, Moscow’s forces have quickly captured more than two dozen towns and villages, including the long-held stronghold of New York City. According to the Financial Times, the Russians faced only minimal resistance.
According to Rob Lee, a researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, Russia’s gains were attributed to a lack of experienced Ukrainian infantrymen and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive.
“Ukraine has committed reserves to Kursk, leaving less room to fill gaps elsewhere.” Some of the more experienced brigades were replaced by newer, less experienced units,” R. Lee explained to the Financial Times portal.
Soldiers who were mobilized this summer under new conscription laws passed by the Ukrainian government to fill the country’s dwindling ranks have been sent into battle with little training and no experience.
“They’re frozen … they don’t know what to do in real combat,” said a Ukrainian lieutenant whose troops are on the front line near Pokrovsk. Many of them “turn and run from the first blast,” he said.
Ammunition shortages are not a thing of the past
Soldiers of artillery units stationed near Pokrovsk also drew attention to the lack of shells and a large discrepancy in firepower compared to the Russian forces.
“We’re running out of shells. We just don’t have enough,” said the artillery commander, noting that many resources were diverted north toward Kursk.
In the past month, he said, his unit had about one shell for every six to eight shells fired by the Russians.
Meanwhile, Russian forces maintain a significant tactical advantage, bolstered by better aviation and drone capabilities, as well as artillery, the Center for Defense Strategies think tank said.
Ukrainian journalist and soldier Stanislav Aseyev, who is currently in the eastern part of the front, warned of the possible “destruction of the entire southern group of forces in the region, not only Pokrovsk.”
This, he says, can happen for a number of internal reasons, from “planting flowers instead of building fortifications” to senior leadership not understanding the problems that are obvious to every soldier in the trenches.
“What can be done about Pokrovsk? he asked rhetorically. – Unfortunately, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think the city will soon cease to exist.”
Frontelligence, an analytical center monitoring the war in Ukraine, said the Ukrainian leadership could still strengthen the front line by deploying new brigades or moving forces from other areas.
But if Pokrovsk falls, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push into Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, and further extend its control.
Parengta pagal „Financial Times“ inf.
2024-08-31 19:36:33