The surprising fall of the regime Bashar Al-Assad, After more than five decades of dominance in Syria, it profoundly altered the political landscape in Middle east. This outcome, the product of a combination of internal conflicts, regional tensions y global rivalriesinaugurates a period of uncertainty for Syria adn the region.
Agustín Berea, researcher at the Pan American University, explains that Assad’s collapse “occurred in a context of accumulated attrition.” Among the triggers are the 14 months of confrontations between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and other forces in the region.
You may be interested: Luigi Mangione arrested, suspected of murdering a businessman in NY
Syria’s future appears fragmented. according too Berea, The Kurds in the north “will probably retain some autonomy”, while the Alawite regions, which supported the regime, could seek partial independence with the support of Russia, interested in maintaining strategic access to the Mediterranean through the naval base of in Tartu.
Much of the territory remains a field of dispute.Rebel groups backed by the US and Türkiye have made significant gains in the north, but still do not control Damascus.Meanwhile, millions of Syrians celebrate the possibility of rebuilding their country, although threats from Islamist factions linked to Syria persist. Al-Qaeda and other radical groups.
History suggests that after the fall of oppressive regimes, instability is common.Berea remembers the example of the Mexican Revolution, where the overthrow of a regime led to years of chaos as effective political leadership was not consolidated.
You might potentially be interested in: Massive celebrations in Syria after the fall of Bashar Al Assad
At the international level, the rearrangement is complex. Russia seeks to preserve its influence, while Iran faces a setback in its ability to maneuver. Türkiye, On the other hand, it consolidates its role by supporting rebels in the north. For its part, EU and Europe, interested in avoiding an Islamist goverment, will continue to support the Kurds.
“Stability is the great unknown in a panorama where change seems to be the only certainty,” he concludes. Berea.
Europe suspends asylum applications from Syria
Europe took drastic measures in the face of the Syrian crisis, temporarily suspending the processing of asylum applications from Syrian citizens, just after the collapse of the Syrian regime. Bashar al Assad.
Five countries of the EU together with Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, announced the suspension, referring to the “uncertainty” politics that reigns in Syria. France is also considering taking similar decisions soon.
You may be interested: Zelensky calls for lasting peace; Trump could reduce aid
the measure comes in a context of the rise of the far right in Europe, which has increased anti-immigrant rhetoric. The governments argue that the situation in Syria is unpredictable and justify the suspension by the need to reassess existing cases.
Meanwhile, the HIM He asked for caution when considering the return of Syrians, given a panorama that continues to be marked by violence. Recently, bodies with signs of torture were found in damascus hospitals, underscoring the brutality of the regime.
Related
What are the implications of the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime for Syria’s future governance?
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Agustín Berea, researcher at the Pan American University. It’s a pleasure to have you here to discuss the recent developments in Syria following the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.With over five decades of dominance, this change raises many questions. Can you start by outlining some of the key factors that have contributed to the collapse of Assad’s regime?
Agustín Berea: Thank you for having me. The political landscape in Syria has indeed changed dramatically. The collapse of Assad’s regime can be attributed to a combination of internal conflicts, regional tensions, adn global rivalries. In particular, the 14 months of confrontations involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and various other regional actors created an habitat of accumulated attrition that weakened Assad’s control over the country.
Time.news Editor: That sounds complex. The interplay of so many forces must have added significant tension. What do you think this means for the immediate future of Syria?
Agustín Berea: The future appears quite fragmented. The Kurds in the north are likely to retain a degree of autonomy given their established governance structures. on the other hand, the Alawite regions that traditionally supported Assad might seek partial independence, possibly with backing from Russia. Russia’s strategic interests in maintaining access to the Mediterranean through the naval base in Tartus also play a crucial role in this dynamic.
Time.news Editor: So, we might see a realignment of regional power structures as well as new governance models emerging.What about the rebel groups? How do they fit into this picture?
Agustín Berea: Yes, absolutely. The rebel groups, many of whom are supported by the US and Türkiye, have gained significant ground in the north but have yet to take control of Damascus. This creates a precarious balance of power. For some, there’s hope for rebuilding the country, especially among millions of Syrians who are eager for peace and reconstruction. However,the presence of radical Islamist factions,like Al-Qaeda and similar groups,adds an ongoing threat to stability.
Time.news Editor: It seems we are witnessing a transition that could lead either to a more stable governance framework or potential further conflict. What do you think the international community’s role should be as these changes unfold?
Agustín Berea: The international community must engage cautiously yet proactively. Support for diplomatic efforts to establish a reconciliation framework is essential. Furthermore, addressing the humanitarian needs of millions of displaced Syrians should be a priority. Any external involvement should aim not only at stabilizing the region but also at fostering inclusive governance that represents the diverse groups within Syria.
Time.news Editor: Given the complexity of the situation, it sounds like a balanced approach is crucial. What message would you send to those who are watching this transition unfold?
Agustín Berea: My message would be one of cautious optimism. While the path ahead is fraught with challenges and uncertainties, the fall of a long-standing regime opens an chance for change. The local and regional dynamics are fluid, and it’s essential for both Syrians and the international community to remain engaged in the peace-building process. With determination and support, there is potential for a brighter future for Syria.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Agustín, for your insights on this evolving situation. it’s certainly a pivotal moment for Syria and the broader Middle East. We appreciate your time and expertise.
Agustín Berea: Thank you for having me. It was a pleasure to discuss these critical issues.