Serial bombings, repeated power cuts, Ukrainian personnel under pressure: the Zaporijjia power plant, located in southern Ukraine and occupied by the Russian army, lives under the constant threat of a nuclear disaster.
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After a first scare when Moscow took the site on March 4, the situation deteriorated markedly in early August.
The strikes, of which Moscow and kyiv accuse each other, follow one another in this area close to the front line.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which ended up installing experts on site, reported “a good dozen” of shots this weekend.
“Whoever it is, stop this madness!” Urged its general manager Rafael Grossi. “It’s absolutely deliberate, targeted.”
A status report is scheduled for Monday. Damage has already been recorded in various places, in particular where “where there are fresh and spent fuels”, according to Mr. Grossi.
The radiation level remained normal and the external power supply was not affected.
“Although there was no direct impact on key safety systems, the bombardment came dangerously close. We are talking about meters, not kilometers,” said the head of the UN body.
It is conducting consultations to set up a protection zone around the site. Without success so far.
“The direct impact (of a missile) on the reactors and the adjacent equipment, in particular where the spent fuel is stored, could have serious consequences”, underlined in September Rafael Grossi.
The six Soviet-designed units of the plant, the largest in Europe, have so far been spared.
They are protected by “rather robust containment enclosures”, explains to AFP the consultant Tariq Rauf, a former official of the IAEA, “but naturally, they were not designed to resist a war”.
The other risk is that of a prolonged power outage.
Normally, the plant’s systems are powered by four 750 kilovolt (kV) lines, which have been repeatedly damaged by bombardment.
In the event of failure of this network, the current can be supplied by other lines via a neighboring thermal power station. However, they are also regularly affected.
The operator has already had to temporarily resort to generators. The plant has 20 in total, with fuel stocks allowing them to operate for a fortnight before refueling is required.
Electricity is essential to run the pumps ensuring the circulation of water. Because it is necessary to constantly cool the fuel of the cores of the reactors as well as that placed in the storage pools.
“A prolonged cooling failure would lead to a fuel meltdown accident and radioactive releases into the environment,” said the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN).
A scenario similar to what happened in March 2011 in Fukushima in Japan, but “the loss of power supply had then been very rapid due to the tsunami which put the emergency generators out of service”, notes its general manager. Karine Herviou.
In the case of Zaporizhia, more time would be available.
Moreover, “these are not the same models: the volume inside the containment enclosure is greater, the rise in pressure will therefore be slower”, continues the expert.
It should be noted that the site’s reactors, which produced about a fifth of Ukraine’s electricity before the war, have all been shut down.
In the event of an accident, “the consequences will be less serious: the quantity of iodine will be all the lower as the unit has been stopped for a long time”, says Ms. Herviou.
The plant is managed by the Ukrainian operator Energoatom, but it is occupied by the Russians who officially annexed it at the beginning of October and have soldiers and vehicles there.
“It’s a unique situation,” warned Grossi. Especially since the crisis center has been taken over by Russian forces.
“This element raises questions about the ability to deal with a serious accidental situation”, confides Karine Herviou.
If necessary, “this place is essential so that the Ukrainian teams can monitor the state of the installations, take the necessary measures to limit the consequences of the accident, request external reinforcements, alert the populations”.
Employees also live in “constant stress”, points out the IAEA.
The boss of Energoatom, Petro Kotine, had denounced in September to AFP the abuses perpetrated by the Russians on the personnel, evoking torture, murders and kidnappings. Moscow has systematically denied.