- Rory McIlroy begins his 2026 PGA Tour season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, with odds of +1300 to win.
- A computer model favors McIlroy to finish in the top five (+290 odds) rather than winning the tournament outright.
- Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Fitzpatrick also present value in prop bets, with odds of +300 and +305 respectively.
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. — The 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am gets underway Thursday, marking the season debut for golf superstar Rory McIlroy. The 36-year-old enters the tournament off a stellar 2025 season, matching his most wins in a year since 2012 with three victories, and a predictive model suggests he’s poised for a strong start at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
While McIlroy holds the second-shortest odds to win at +1300, the model isn’t forecasting a victory. Instead, it identifies a compelling opportunity: a top-five finish, currently priced at +290. This prediction stems from the highly competitive field—including Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Tommy Fleetwood—which creates favorable value for McIlroy at nearly 3-to-1 odds.
McIlroy will tee off alongside Ryan Fox on Thursday at 12:24 p.m. ET.
Beyond McIlroy: Other Promising Picks
The model also highlights Hideki Matsuyama as a strong contender to finish in the top 10 at +300 odds. Matsuyama nearly secured a win at last weekend’s WM Phoenix Open, falling in a playoff, and is projected to carry that momentum into this week. Additionally, Matt Fitzpatrick is favored as a group winner at +305 odds.
Model’s Proven Track Record
Developed by DFS pro Mike McClure, this proprietary model has consistently delivered results since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020, generating over $8,000 in profit on its best bets. Its success extends to major championships, where it has correctly identified contenders entering the weekend on 16 occasions.
Rory McIlroy: A Top-Five Threat
Ranked No. 2 in the world, McIlroy excelled in total strokes gained last year, finishing third on the PGA Tour. He was particularly strong off the tee (fourth in strokes gained: Off-The-Tee) and with his putting (ninth in strokes gained: Putting). Known for his powerful drives, he ranked second in driving average. His putting prowess—ninth in putting average and 10th in one-putt percentage—further bolstered his all-around game, leading to a fifth-place finish on the PGA Tour in scoring average.
Last year, McIlroy won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his season debut, launching a run of three wins and four top-five finishes in his first six tournaments. The model anticipates a similar strong start this year, projecting value in a top-five finish at +290 odds.
Matsuyama’s Momentum
Matsuyama displayed impressive form at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where he was in contention throughout the tournament before ultimately losing in a playoff to Chris Gotterup. He carded four consecutive rounds of 68 or better, including a 64 on Friday, and has finished no worse than 13th in his three tournaments this season. Currently 10th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, second in scrambling, and 12th in scoring average, Matsuyama appears poised for another strong performance. He secured a victory at the Hero World Challenge in December and finished inside the top 20 in five of his final seven PGA Tour events last season.
Fitzpatrick’s Group Advantage
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Group D features Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, Robert MacIntyre, Jake Knapp, and J.J. Spaun. While Chris Gotterup (+285) currently has the best odds to top the group, the model projects Fitzpatrick to emerge as the leader. The 29-year-old finished ninth at last week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, consistently shooting 70 or better, including an opening round of 65. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of six AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournaments, including a tie for sixth in 2022. The model believes Gotterup’s recent win could lead to a slight letdown, and at odds exceeding 3-to-1, Fitzpatrick represents a valuable bet on a course where he has considerable experience.
Want More AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks?
For a complete leaderboard and additional prop bets for the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, including four golfers with odds of +300 or longer as top-10 contenders, visit SportsLine.
Who will win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and which longshots will surprise the golfing world? Check the odds and visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, based on a model that has successfully predicted 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
