2023-07-15 21:41:09
This Saturday, July 15, the Guatemalan Electoral Observation Mission (MOE-Gt) released its report on social media interaction, and in which it highlights specific findings.
“Attacks, disinformation campaigns, and complaints against candidates, parties, and organizations related to the process intensified,” the report says.
In this regard, it was possible to identify at least seven actions related to this measurement by the MOE-Gt during the period from July 4 to 11, and one of its conclusions is that “most of the attacks and disinformation campaigns were promoted by religious leaders, mainly against Arévalo (Bernardo)”.
That week, according to the report, in the conversation that refers to presidential pairings, the two candidates who will go to the ballot on August 20 were emphasized and they reiterated that this analysis is not a poll of voting intentions, but rather a network scan. social.
The total universe of mentions in the social networks monitored during the period analyzed was 79,400.
What was found?
The report collects information from the different social media platforms and clarifies what has been discovered about complaints, attacks and misinformation:
An attack campaign against Torres was detected through TikTok videos, which use an old recording between the candidate and Gustavo Alejos. A series of posts on Facebook and Twitter were identified in which complaints about the process of reviewing electoral records are shared. Information that was denied by the TSE. A campaign of attacks against Arévalo was observed in which he is accused of manipulating the migrant vote in the United States. Information that was denied by the candidate. A campaign denouncing an alliance between Arévalo and Dionisio Gutiérrez was identified on TikTok, derived from a photograph in which both appear. On Twitter and WhatsApp, a disinformation campaign was disseminated against the interim president of the CSJ, Silvia Valdés, accusing her of colluding with the former official candidate, Manuel Conde. A publication by the UNE vice-presidential candidate, Romeo Guerra, was identified on Twitter, in which he misinforms about the UN 2030 agenda. A series of videos of religious pastors, from different congregations, pointing to the candidate Arévalo and asking their parishioners not to vote for him was detected on TikTok.
Regarding some conclusions of the MOE-Gt report on interaction in social networks, it indicates that:
The conversation about the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) had its highest peak on July 10 due to the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) ruling that ruled that the electoral authority complied with what was ordered by the Constitutional Court (CC). The narrative about electoral fraud in social networks remained low. Torres (Sandra) increased her positive sentiment and occupies 70.7% of the conversation about the candidates for the presidential runoff. Arévalo (Bernardo) continues to have a better performance/efficiency ratio than Torres on TikTok and on Twitter.
Count
Regarding the TSE conversation, during the data collection, the report states that the mentions and interactions that allude to that institution decreased, compared to the previous week; there was a decrease of 19.6% in mentions and 35.2% in interactions.
In addition, that the narrative about the TSE had two peaks:
On July 5 for the discussion on the new results verification hearings. On July 10, due to the ruling of the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) that ruled that the TSE complied with what was ordered by the Constitutional Court.
On the other hand, the emotional climate around the TSE showed a tone from neutral (64.4%) to negative 31.1%, maintaining the trend observed in previous weeks. The positive sentiment registered was 4.4%, lower than that identified the previous week.
Regarding the issue of electoral fraud, the report indicates that the narrative on social networks about possible electoral fraud registered 1,600 mentions, 54.9% less than the previous week.
The highest peak of the conversation referred to the publications of various political actors, including Giovanni Fratti and Luis Hernández Azmitia (former deputy), who requested the suspension of the count and the opening of the vote boxes.
They emphasize that, in the cloud of hashtags, #VotoNulo disappeared and #SemillerosTranseros emerged as an attack on the Movimiento Semilla party.
Regarding the conversation of the candidates, the MOE-Gt, points out that during that week it focused on the narrative around the two pairs that will go to the ballot on August 20: Sandra Torres from UNE and Bernardo Arévalo from Movimiento Semilla.
In this regard, Torres registered 70.7% of the mentions in all social networks, while Arévalo only represented 29.3%. However, when sizing the interactions, the data changes due to the efficiency of the messages.
And in the sentiment of the candidates’ conversation he indicates that:
The conversation that alludes to Torres reached, for the sixth consecutive week, the highest positive sentiment with 39.7%. More recently created accounts with few followers that support the UNE candidate and attack Semilla were identified. And they clarify that the tracking platform is based on original posts and mentions, not interactions.
Regarding candidate interactions on Facebook:
For the second week in a row, Torres leads the interactions on Facebook with a total of 90,600. Arévalo registered 35,500 interactions. Both candidates dominate in terms of engagement on Facebook, while the rest tend to disappear.
In the part of the publications and interactions of the candidates on Twitter:
Arévalo published 66 tweets and achieved 220,400 interactions, placing him in first place in terms of engagement.
Torres, although he has published more tweets than Arévalo, with 124, achieved only 76,700 interactions.
And in the engagement of the candidates on TikTok
Arévalo led the interactions on TikTok with 54.5% of the engagement. However, it reported a lower percentage than the one registered the previous week. Torres, on the contrary, registered an increase of two percentage points in this social network, with a engagement of 46.2%.
The analysis in engagement of the candidates in TikTok, according to the report and according to the tracking application, Arévalo has a better performance/efficiency index than Torres, especially in the number of fans, in the growth of followers and in the rate interaction with your posts.
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