Antarctic researchers from Australia and 16 other nations are advancing a plan to conduct continent-wide geophysical surveys of the Antarctic coast, a move aimed at resolving critical uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. The initiative, detailed in a study published in the American Geophysical Union’s Reviews of Geophysics, involves mapping ice flow, grounding zones, and ocean-facing ice shelves to better understand the processes driving ice loss. This ambitious, globally coordinated campaign would resolve the biggest uncertainties in predicting Antarctic sea-level rise,
said Felicity McCormack, co-lead author of the study from Monash University.
International Survey Plan to Address Data Gaps
The proposed surveys aim to fill persistent gaps in direct observations of coastal bed topography and sub-ice shelf cavities, which scientists say limit the accuracy of ice loss estimates. According to the study, these gaps are particularly acute in regions where ice sheets meet the ocean, a zone critical for understanding how melting ice contributes to rising seas. Satellite data alone cannot reliably estimate ice loss into the ocean, and computer models alone cannot predict future changes. Both depend on accurate knowledge of bed topography,
said Dr. Kenichi Matsuoka, chair of the RINGS Action Group at the Norwegian Polar Institute.
The research, led by 80 scientists from 16 countries, emphasizes the need for coordinated international efforts. Uncoordinated surveys risk leaving gaps or duplicating effort,
Matsuoka added. The plan, supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP), seeks to leverage airborne measurements and autonomous platforms to gather data in hard-to-reach areas. Autonomous platforms offer new opportunities to gather urgently needed observational data, even during the Antarctic winter,
said Naomi Krauzig, a researcher at GEOMAR.
Persistent Gaps in Coastal Observations
Current ice sheet models are highly sensitive to conditions at the coast, yet direct observations of coastal bed topography and sub-ice shelf cavities remain sparse. The study highlights that these data gaps hinder the ability to predict how ice loss will reshape coastlines globally.
Dr. Graeme Eagles, a geophysicist at AWI, emphasized the role of international collaboration. Germany is one of the major contributors and data providers for the international RINGS initiative,
he said. The plan also includes partnerships with Norway and Japan, as well as institutions like the Helmholtz Research Centres and Kiel University. Such internationally coordinated efforts can serve as a springboard for the next International Polar Year in 2032/33,
Matsuoka concluded.
Pine Island Glacier’s Role in Sea-Level Projections
While the broader survey plan targets the entire Antarctic coast, specific studies on glaciers like Pine Island highlight the urgency of improving models. A separate study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analyzed how calving events at the Pine Island Ice Shelf have accelerated the glacier’s flow. The 2017 calving event increased the glacier's velocity by 20%, and overall flow has increased by more than 100% since 1973,
said Brent Minchew, a Caltech researcher leading the study. The Pine Island Glacier, currently flowing at 4.8 kilometers per year, is the largest contributor to sea-level rise in West Antarctica.
The interplay between ice dynamics and oceanic forces remains a key challenge. As global populations increasingly concentrate in coastal regions, the need for precise predictions grows. Every centimeter of sea-level rise could displace 1.5 million people,
noted the report, citing estimates of potential displacement ranging from half a meter to 2 meters by the end of the 21st century. The international survey plan and targeted studies like those on Pine Island Glacier represent critical steps toward addressing this global challenge.
