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Expert Australian Open Betting Picks: Upsets,Favorites & value in Round Three
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The third round of the Australian Open,commencing Friday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park,presents a wealth of betting opportunities. Action began Thursday night in the United states, with several seeded Americans facing tough challenges and potential upsets looming. All odds discussed are sourced from DraftKings sportsbook, though savvy bettors can often find more favorable lines at other leading sports betting sites and apps.
Grand Slam men’s singles matches are best-of-five sets,while women’s matches are best-of-three. Successful betting requires a nuanced understanding of player form,head-to-head records,stylistic matchups,and previous hard-court results. This analysis highlights potential “Upset Alerts,” “Lock It In” favorites,and “Value Bets” offering enticing odds.
Upset Alert: Challenging the Status Quo
Frances Tiafoe (+407) vs. Alex de Minaur: Despite De Minaur being the sixth seed and Tiafoe ranked 29th, the difference in recent form favors Tiafoe. De Minaur needed a grueling three-setter against qualifier Millman, while Tiafoe dispatched both Dimitrov and McDonald in straight sets, showcasing extraordinary power and precision. Tiafoe’s aggressive baseline game can trouble De Minaur, and the American’s superior serving numbers make him a live underdog.
Magda linette (+125) vs. Karolina Muchova: Linette’s path to the third round hasn’t been easy, requiring a hard-fought win and a hard-fought victory in the second. Linette, though, has demonstrated strong form, already eliminating a top-20 seed, Emma Navarro, and following that up with a straight-sets win over Ann Li, marking her second top-40 victory of the tournament. While Muchova’s versatility makes her a formidable opponent when at her best, Linette’s current form positions her as a serious contender.
Honorable Mention: Clara tauson (+149) vs. Victoria Mboko.
Lock It in: Reliable Favorites
Alexander Bublik (-384) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Bublik has navigated a tricky draw with ease, dropping only one set to Jenson Brooksby and marton Fucsovics in the first two rounds. Etcheverry, ranked 62nd, lacks the hard-court pedigree of his opponents, having never progressed beyond the third round of a hard-court Grand Slam or Masters 1000 event, and holds a career record of 42-49 on the surface. Bublik’s powerful serve should secure him a victory, continuing his impressive 6-0 start to the season.
Alexander Zverev (-435) vs. Cameron Norrie: Zverev boasts a perfect 6-0 record against Norrie, having only dropped two sets across those six matches – both in a closely contested five-set thriller at the 2024 Australian Open. The gap is highly likely to widen, with Zverev currently ranked No. 3 in the world and Norrie having slipped to 27th. zverev’s consistent groundstrokes and dominant serve give him a significant advantage, notably neutralizing Norrie’s forehand-heavy game plan.
Honorable Mention: Daniil Medvedev (-488) vs. Fabian Marozsan.
Value Bets: Promising Opportunities
Andrey Rublev (-145) vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Both players favor aggressive forehands, but Rublev’s serve is more potent, and he’s the more accomplished hard-court player. Rublev is ranked slightly higher at No. 15, but his seven hard-court Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances dwarf Cerundolo’s zero. Cerundolo leads their head-to-head 3-1, but this will be their first encounter on an outdoor hard court.
Jasmine Paolini (-137) vs. Iva Jovic: The rapidly ascending 18-year-old Jovic has yet to find a solution against Paolini, who has defeated the American teenager in both of their previous meetings, including a 6-3, 6-3 victory at the U.S. Open. Paolini’s experience and consistent game make her the favorite, as Jovic has struggled against top-20 opponents, winning only one set in five matches.
