2024-04-10 00:42:27
Azamgarh: Ayodhya Singh Upadhyay of Azamgarh, situated on the banks of river Tamsa, writes in ‘Hariaudh’, ‘No one will lose what we have lost. It’s not like anyone would have fallen anywhere. The last two-two and a half decades of Azamgarh, the land of revolution and literature, is also a similar story of losing its identity. In politics also, this fire was given as per convenience, so that the hearth of their votes keeps burning. At present, the field for another election has been prepared, so political parties have started sharpening their arrows. Here this time too there is a direct fight between the Saifai family of SP and the actor card of BJP. The politics of Azamgarh is directly based on the equation of caste and emotions.
In this seat with more than 18 lakh voters, the combined participation of Muslims and Yadavs is more than 6 lakhs. At the same time, there are about 3 lakh voters from Dalit community. The effect of this social mathematics is clearly visible on the results also. In the 18 elections held since it came into existence in 1962 as a seat with a single representative, only Yadav and Muslim faces have reached Parliament from here 17 times. In this also, Yadavs have represented 14 times. These figures bear witness to the decisive role of Muslim-Yadav votes on this seat, which has also been presented as the MY equation.
Janata Party wave
Earlier in the general elections, there used to be two seats in the name of Azamgarh, East and West. In the first general elections, the member of the Constituent Assembly was Algu Ram Shastri from the East and Sitaram and Vishwanath from the West. All three were Congress candidates. In 1957, the seat became one, but two representatives were elected from here. One of these was from the Scheduled Caste quota. Then Kalika Singh and Vishwanath Prasad represented Congress from here. In 1962, the election of a representative from this seat also started. But, the result remained in favor of Congress and Chandrajit Yadav became the MP. He scored a hat-trick of three consecutive election victories. The two and a half decade rule of Congress was broken in 1977 in the wave of Janata Party and Ramnaresh Yadav became the first non-Congress MP.
Indira vs Charan Singh
Ramnaresh Yadav became the CM of UP. Azamgarh seat became vacant. Janata Party made Ram Bachan Yadav its candidate for the CM seat. He was counted among those close to Chaudhary Charan Singh. Congress decided to withdraw from the first by-election. But, Indira Gandhi suddenly announced the candidature of her close friend Mohsina Kidwai, a native of Barabanki. Now the candidates were just faces. The real fight became Indira Gandhi versus Chaudhary Charan Singh. Due to Congress being in power in the state, every possible effort was made for Ram Vachan Yadav.
At the same time, Indira, who had lost her election two years ago, also reached Azamgarh. The administration neither allowed him to hold a public meeting nor allowed him to stay in the government guest house as he was a former PM. This resistance to power started creating space for Congress in the tough battle of Azamgarh. Indira Gandhi spent the night in a temple and held a public meeting. This also aroused sympathy for them and the anger of the public during the Emergency also started reducing.
Indira’s ploy worked and in the by-election, the public rejected the candidate for power and gave victory to Mohsina. This result became oxygen for Congress and they returned to power in the country in 1980. However, Congress again lost here in the 1980 elections. But, after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, Congress candidate Santosh Singh won the 1984 elections. This was Congress’s last victory here.
Two decades of BSP-SP
After the weak performance of national parties, the entry of regional parties changed the political picture of Azamgarh also. For almost two decades, the seat here kept getting transferred sometimes to BSP and sometimes to SP. BSP, formed in 1984, tasted victory in Azamgarh in 1989. However, Janata Dal won the elections held in Ram Lahar in 1991. But, BJP reached second place for the first time. SP, formed in 1993, laid claim to Azamgarh in 1996. The seat was suitable for the party with Muslim-Yadav core water. Ramakant Yadav rode his bicycle from here.
In 1998, BSP’s Akbar Ahmed Dumpy defeated Ramakant by just 5400 votes. Ramakant won from SP in the next election. But, in 2004, he joined the BSP and reached Parliament. In this election, BJP gambled on a Muslim candidate from Azamgarh and it failed. Ramakant Yadav did not get along with Mayawati. After becoming CM in 2007, Mayawati had called Ramakant’s brother Umakant Yadav at home in a case and sent him to jail.
Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat at a glance
- Total voters- 18.60 lakh
- Male- 9.84 lakh
- Women- 8.76 lakhs
The rebel fed the lotus
Due to Ramakant Yadav leaving BSP, membership was canceled and by-elections were held in 2008. BSP fielded Dumpy and SP fielded Balram Yadav. Outgoing MP Ramakant joined the BJP this time. BSP got the benefit of division of Yadav votes and Ramakant came second. However, this raised the possibility for the BJP to blossom here for the first time. BJP liked Ramakant’s candidature in the 2009 general elections. Ramakant’s own land, BJP’s core vote and the division of SP-BSP votes led to BJP’s victory. In the elections held in the Modi wave in 2014, SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav filed his nomination. Ramakant Yadav from BJP and Guddu Jamali from SP were in the fray. A political maestro like Mulayam had to struggle here and was able to win the election by just 63,000 votes.
Results of previous elections on Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat:
election yearcandidateteamTotal votes2022 by-electionDinesh Lal Yadav NirahuaBJP3,12,768Dharmendra YadavSP3,04,089Shah Alam alias Guddu JamaliBSP2,66,2102019Akhilesh YadavSP6,21,578Dinesh Lal Yadav NirahuaBJP3,61,7042014Mulayam Singh YadavSP3,40,306Ramakant YadavBJP2,7 7,102Shah Alam alias Guddu JamaliBSP2,66,528Arvind JaiswalCongress17,9502009Ramakant YadavBJP2,47,648Akbar Ahmed DumpyBSP1,98,609Durga Prasad YadavSP1,23,844Santosh Kumar SinghCongress31,159
Akhilesh’s victory and defeat
In 2019, SP and BSP were together, which solidified the social mathematics of Azamgarh in favor of its candidate. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav himself contested elections from here. BJP fielded Bhojpuri actor Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua in front of him. The glamor in the elections increased, but the result did not change. Akhilesh Yadav won by 2,60,000 votes. Akhilesh resigned from Parliament membership after becoming MLA from Karhal in 2022. After this the by-election took place. Akhilesh fielded cousin Dharmendra Yadav here and BJP fielded Nirahua. Guddu Jamali proved to be the X factor in the elections, whom Akhilesh called at the door in 2022 and returned without a ticket. BSP candidate Jamali made such a dent in Muslim votes that SP’s path to victory was closed. Nirahua became the ‘Shah’ of Azamgarh by winning by 8679 votes.
Challenge ahead for BJP in changed equation
There has been a tradition in Azamgarh in the last three by-elections that the party which has made it win in the by-election, does not like that party in the next election. BJP and Nirahua will face the challenge of changing this choice. This time Akhilesh has made further improvements in Azamgarh. The focus has been on mobilizing Muslim votes by making Guddu Jamali, who was the reason for the defeat in UP elections, as MLC. SP is in control of all the assembly seats here. However, for the first time in 2022, BJP stood second on all the seats in the district. Along with the confidence of victory in the by-elections, he also has the ground on issues like beneficiary schemes and Ram Mandir. At the same time, BSP has not revealed its cards till now. His candidature can also be important in deciding the direction of the elections here.