2024-04-04 13:20:18
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
Tomorrow, April 5, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, European Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will meet in Brussels.
The main purpose of this meeting called “Conference” is to determine the range, format and scale of political, economic, technical, financial, especially military support of the West to Armenia.
In the process of signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Yerevan has become a routine process in recent months, continuously creating artificial obstacles, trying to prolong the process of demarcation and delimitation of the conventional state border as much as possible.
The nuances that embolden Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are France’s unequivocal and unlimited support to Armenians, as well as the US and European Union’s sometimes covert and sometimes overt declarations that Yerevan’s demands are “real”.
It is not a spontaneous process for Paris, Washington or Brussels to give any form of “guarantees” regarding the security of Armenians. After Paris, Washington and Brussels also promised military and technical support to Yerevan for the rapid arming of the Armenian army.
Western ownership of Armenia will automatically affect Yerevan’s positions, and the Pashinyan administration will further tighten its position in peace negotiations.
More precisely, Yerevan’s goals, which are already far from reality, incompatible with political logic, and veiled only by a bunch of rhetorical words, will become even more aggressive.
United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken insists that the Brussels meeting “is not against the interests of any state in the region, especially Azerbaijan”, but it is not the case at all.
Yerevan declares that it is inclined to peace, and the West confirms its statements almost entirely, emphasizing that Armenia has taken “necessary steps” to sign a peace agreement. For this reason, it is said that the gradual integration of Armenia into the European Union is a process that should be supported and accelerated.
There is a big difference between words and reality.
Thus, the territorial claims against Azerbaijan in the Declaration of State Independence and the Constitution of Armenia, the fact that part of the territory of our country is considered “Armenian land” still remain as a legislative element.
It is quite interesting that the state, whose supreme law includes claims against Azerbaijan, talks about peace and how, but it seems that Washington and Brussels consider the point we are talking about to be unimportant.
Armenia still has not released the 8 villages it has occupied since 30 years, avoids by all means to start the process of delimitation and demarcation of the conventional state border, does not aspire to the restoration of regional communications, does not accept the Zangezur Corridor project and, despite the listed points, is rapidly arming itself.
At the same time, the authorities of Armenia do not ban the activities of the separatist group of Karabakh Armenians called the “government” in this country.
Former head of the former separatist junta in Khankendi, Samvel Shahramanyan, has been allocated a building in Yerevan, and the entrance to the building has the symbols of the junta. Although Nikol Pashinyan said, “There is only one government in Armenia: the existence of any other “government in exile” is illegal and may endanger us,” but S. Shahramyan’s destructive activities were not stopped within the framework of legislation.
Official Baku will have to take adequate steps if Yerevan’s rhetoric becomes aggressive, its statements become harsher, and Nikol Pashinyan’s sense of self-confidence reaches the limit of megalomaniac illusion. Such steps are necessitated by Yerevan’s current policy and prospective plans.
The fact that Anthony Blinken called the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev yesterday and informed him about the Brussels meeting actually shows that Washington has decided to accept the undeniable truth.
That reality is simple: Azerbaijan’s position regarding the processes in the South Caucasus region cannot be ignored in any case.
Blinken’s claim that “the Brussels meeting was not directed against Azerbaijan” is also incorrect and, to put it mildly, untrue.
It is dangerous for the region that Armenia, which has occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territories for 30 years, does not accept the new geopolitical realities formed in the region after the Second Karabakh War, and does not want to reconcile, receives promises of support on an unprecedented scale, form and volume within the CIS space.
Of course, Baku cannot coolly watch what is happening.
The USA, France and the European Union, with their subjective, one-sided policy of openly supporting Armenia and Armenians, will lead to tensions and conflicts in the South Caucasus instead of regional stability.
It is also clear that after April 5, the USA and the European Union, especially France, will try to get easier access to the territory of Armenia.
Since such an entry is possible only from the territory of Turkey, the attempts of the West to pressure official Ankara will increase. The main goal of the United States and the European Union is to make Ankara agree with the Armenians, to achieve such an agreement outside the context of Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiations.
The West made such an attempt 13 years ago through the Zurich Protocols. But as a result of the strict, principled and decisive positions of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the plans of the West were overturned.
The West can provide aid to Armenia by making whatever promises it wants.
According to the Shusha Declaration, Baku and Ankara will make joint decisions and take joint steps, not in parallel.
That is, unless stability is established in the region, unless a peace agreement is signed, neither Turkey will open its borders with Armenia, nor Azerbaijan will allow Armenians to participate in regional projects.
The West’s games in the region will become more active, pressure efforts will intensify.
But he will see Azerbaijan, which pursues a completely sovereign and independent foreign policy vis-a-vis the West, and will not allow Armenian revanchism to turn the region into a new danger zone.
It’s that simple.