Bangladesh returns to the international stage: after weeks of protests led by Students against discrimination, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled Dhaka, leaving the country. The unrest currently occurring is likely among the most violent ever witnessed. The causes are numerous, reflecting internal significance but also finding correlates related to foreign policy.
At the heart of the protests are grievances against the quota-based hiring system designed to favor the relatives of the fighters from the war of independence from Pakistan 50 years ago, an anachronistic policy that, while nepotistically understandable, has failed to take into account the progress of the country.
Since 1972, 30 percent of coveted government jobs, as mentioned, are reserved for the descendants of the so-called freedom fighters, while other positions are assigned based on valid justification to other groups for no less than 56% of available posts (ethnic minorities, women, persons with disabilities, individuals from underrepresented districts). Not without reason, the protesters deem the system discriminatory and argue that it should vary based on merit, a multilayered discourse. The clashes have been particularly violent and have resulted in several hundred casualties, especially when protesters have come into contact with the police and opposing factions.
Despite the country’s good economic progress, Bangladesh remains one of the least developed political subjects in the world: the post-pandemic phase has seen a strong deceleration in GDP growth; in 2023, according to the World Bank, real growth has dropped to 5.8% compared to 7.1% in 2022. Public employment is more stable and better paid compared to the private sector; according to Bloomberg, over 400,000 graduates compete for no more than 3,000 job positions per year.
Protesters believe that the quota system has favored Prime Minister Hasina, as the ruling party, the Awami League, has capitalized on the country’s independence drive. The suspension of the system by the Supreme Court did not prevent the outbreak of discontent, while Hasina defended the system, a bearer of strong and essential support for the ruling party. The promise to establish an investigative commission did not calm the tempers; rather, it further exacerbated them. In fact, there has been no way to even get the parties involved to dialogue, against the backdrop of the country’s complete paralysis. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, in opposition, supports the protesters’ demands.
The violent government repression has not been sufficient, nor has limiting or interrupting internet services associated with a strict curfew.
Hasina, continuously in power from 1996 to 2001 and then from 2009, is the longest-serving head of government in Bangladesh, has over time favored an increasingly authoritarian political shift. The eldest daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who declared independence from Pakistan in 1971, she inherited this legacy after the bloody coup in which her parents were killed. Subsequent coups have led to Ziaur Rahman coming to power, who was ousted in 1981 and abolished the secular nature of the state, making Islamic loyalty one of the constitutional cornerstones. Hasina thus entered into fierce competition with Khaleda Zia, the BNP leader and wife of Rahman, with whom she governed at alternating phases.
Instability and violence have characterized the political life of Bangladesh up to the present day, with increasing suspicions regarding the regularity of electoral results. Internal advancements driven by development have allowed for the equalization of women’s education, along with an improvement in their working conditions. Hasina has maintained good relations with both India and China, cultivating ties both with Russia and Western countries. However, the price has been paid by democracy, with repression and restrictions on dissent and freedom of the press. Recently, the UN has reported that the use of the judicial system as a weapon is undermining the independence of the judiciary.
The day’s script is the classic one: a collapse of resistance to avoid a bloody civil war, the flight of leadership, and the assumption of government responsibility by the Armed Forces, with General Waker Uz Zaman, newly appointed as the head of the Army. And hundreds of questions about the aftermath, since in international relations power vacuums are not tolerated.
It goes without saying that the psychological effect of crowds entering the halls of power does not resolve the actual problems, which remain all too visible, especially in light of the number of victims who could have been spared. As Hasina’s C-130 aircraft AJAX1431 landed at the Indian airbase in Hindon, General Zaman wisely announced the intention to consult the president on forming an interim government, aiming to return to normalcy as soon as possible. He will then fly close to London after a stay in India. For Hasina, perhaps the next stop could be London, although there are no certainties about it.
New Delhi has not yet reacted officially to the developments, although it has been closely monitoring the situation and maintaining a high alert along the border. Before the flight, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, Hasina’s son and resident in the USA, had urged security forces to save the government.
The Chinese position is to be assessed. Beijing has openly and immediately aligned with Hasina, with whom it has formed several significant commercial agreements, including a free trade agreement along with the establishment of a direct flight from Beijing to Dhaka. It should not be forgotten that Bangladesh occupies a strategic position between Myanmar, an ally of the Dragon and currently undergoing internal conflicts, and India, which has long been in competition with Beijing. All this while trying to keep partnerships active with the USA and India. In light of Bangladesh’s debt, China should continue to guarantee the negotiated investments, while Washington remains the main source of investment.
Frame: RAI