Within six years after the introduction of the digital ruble, every second payment will be made with its help. This forecast for “RG” was made by Rosselkhozbank. Other banks consider this assessment too optimistic.
The digital ruble is an additional form of the Russian currency that will be issued in digital form by the Bank of Russia. As explained in the Central Bank, the digital ruble combines the properties of cash and non-cash rubles. Like non-cash money, the digital ruble makes remote payments and online settlements possible. On the other hand, like cash, the digital ruble can be used offline – in the absence of access to the Internet. Like cash and non-cash rubles, the digital ruble will perform all the functions of money: a means of payment, a measure of value, and a store of value.
All three forms of the Russian ruble will be absolutely equal: as now 1 ruble in cash is equivalent to 1 non-cash ruble, so 1 digital ruble will be equivalent to each of them. Piloting of the digital ruble will start in early 2022.
In its forecast for the digital ruble, Rosselkhozbank took into account, in particular, the practice of spreading non-cash card payments in 2010-2020. Thus, the share of non-cash payments in the total volume of payment transactions with bank cards began to grow from about 10% in 2010 and reached 30% over 6 years. After that, the growth rate of the share of non-cash payments accelerated, and by the beginning of 2020, more than 50% of payments for goods and services were made in non-cash form.
“The penetration rate of the digital ruble will be at least twice as high: an indicator of 30% can be achieved within three years after the start of the digital ruble introduction, every second payment with its help will be made in 6 years,” says the head of the Center for Macroeconomic and Regional Analysis and forecasting of Rosselkhozbank Dmitry Tarasov – We must take into account the growing pace of digitalization of the Russian economy. An important factor will be measures to support the implementation of this form of payment. other payments “.
Other banks called these estimates optimistic. “The effect of the transition to the digital ruble is significantly exaggerated,” says Sergei Shcherbinin, director of information technology development at UBRD. security, it is quite expensive to implement this in comparison with the “run-in” practice of cashless settlements of the same payment systems. “
The press service of Bank Zenith noted that the introduction of the digital ruble will not have a significant impact on the cost of transaction services for individuals.
“Commissions for operations are currently at a low level,” the bank said. “We expect the greatest positive effect in the business segment, which, with the introduction of the digital ruble, will receive tangible savings on payment services.”
Skolkovo estimates the current demand for the digital ruble at the level of two points out of ten, the maximum – at six points (if clear value propositions and target audience are defined). According to Skolkovo, the Central Bank will need to determine who will be the driver of the adoption of the new currency in society: a consumer or a trade and service enterprise.
“The best option should provide significant advantages or differences over the use of current payment instruments or cover those functions and tasks that are still not covered by existing payment methods,” Skolkovo believes. For retailers, customer demand is one of the key factors when deciding on various forms of payment. When introducing the digital ruble, it is important to understand that until the consumer creates a demand for this type of payment, the likelihood that trade enterprises will act as a driver of change is small, experts say.
Stanislav Volkov, Managing Director of the NKR Rating Agency, believes that in the next 5 years the Bank of Russia will most actively promote the digital ruble where this form of money has clear advantages. “Firstly, these are territories where there is no uninterrupted access to the Internet, – explained Volkov. – But their contribution to the volume of transactions will be very low, less than 5%. Secondly, these are areas where it is very important to track the entire chain of transactions. in total, these are targeted budget expenditures, where control of the transaction chain is important to reduce corruption risks and understand the cost of goods and services that the state is forced to purchase from a single supplier. conducted through the financial system, is unlikely to exceed 10%. Finally, the digital ruble may be of interest to companies with a significant amount of free funds, for which the priority is the minimum risk when placing them, and when dealing with them – the minimum costs. Operations of such companies on the horizon 5-6 years can give up to 10% more “.
Thus, in order to reach a 50 percent share, it is necessary to switch to the digital ruble of operations, where its advantages will be less pronounced, Volkov said. But even an administratively stimulated transfer will obviously take years, and such a task is unlikely to be set in the next 5-6 years, the expert said.