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The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revised downwards again the country’s growth projection for 2024, placing the GDP in 1.6% during August, according to the Private Sector Expectations Survey carried out by the Mexican central bank.
After the study, for the fifth consecutive month, a decrease of the growth estimate for the country.
Likewise, the expectation economic growth forecast for 2025 fell for the third consecutive month, from 1.61% in July at 1.50% in August, the lowest projection so far.
If the projections of the August survey for the rest of the six-year term are met, and taking into account the growth already observed in the first five years, Mexico would be growing an accumulated 5.25% in the current six-year term. estimated an analysis of Base Bank.
“With the above, we would be observing the worst economic performance for a six-year term since the period of Miguel de la Madridwhen economic growth was 3.09%,” he said. Gabriela Siller Pagazadirector of the bank.
For his part, if a population growth rate of 6.05% is considered for the current six-year term, he said that the GDP per capita would end with a contraction of 0.75%.
Banco Base pointed out that it is important to remember that the responses to the Survey of Bank of Mexico were collected between August 15 and 29, and that on August 26 the opinion on the reform of the Judicial Branch in general was approved.
He stressed that this reform, as it is, raised, It compromises the independence of the judiciary and puts trade relations with the United States and Canada at risk.
In the case of inflation, the Expectations Survey A survey of financial specialists conducted by the Bank of Mexico revealed that they expect general inflation in the country to be 4.64% at the end of the year, increasing for the second consecutive month.
On the contrary, the underlying inflation expectation for the end of this year was located at 3.90%, coming down from the 3.97% July, the fifth consecutive month of decline.
According to the latest available inflation data, corresponding to the first half of August, Mexico’s general inflation stood at -0.03% after registering 0.14% in the second half of July.
“It should be noted that this was the first negative fortnightly inflation since the second half of May this year and, in addition, it was the lowest fortnightly inflation (for a similar fortnight) Since 2019 (-0.08%).
At an annual rate, inflation stood at 5.16%, the lowest since the first half of June this year (4.78%). And with the above, there were two consecutive fortnights in which inflation of Mexico slows down. It is important to note that Inegi published a new National Consumer Price Index (INPC) with an updated basket and weights.
As a result, inflation in the first half of August was below forecasts.
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2024-09-07 13:01:29