Gerardo Zamora, the governor of Santiago del Estero, emerges as a crucial actor to guarantee the sanction of the Bases law and tax law, according to the mathematics they do in the Casa Rosada and in the Senate. The leader of the north, an old ally of Cristina Kirchner who knew how to be one of the architects of Sergio Massa’s candidacy in 2023, could have the key – with the three senators who respond to him – to unlock the vote in the upper house, where the La Libertad Avanza movement is very adjustable. There are still no guarantees of success for the Javier Miley.
The calculation made in the Government is that the circumstantial majority of 39 non-Peronist senators who Victoria Villarruel built in December for the formation of the commissions has a group of “elusive” legislators who could vote against the Bases law. It was demonstrated during the treatment of the DNU, when some radical senators along with other Patagonian legislators voted against the decree. The governors of the south They continue to make differences with the Casa Rosada and Milei’s management is unable to forge a more solid agreement with them. In particular there is difficulty with Claudio Vidal (Santa Cruz) despite the fact that the Government has been trying to seduce him with various management issues.
Thus, even when the projects did not even pass the test in the Deputies, the Casa Rosada began to anticipate the move for the Senate and raised its gaze towards the governors of the north of the country. In that region, the Peronists Raúl Jalil (Catamarca) and Osvaldo Jaldo (Tucumán) They have already demonstrated gestures of good will with the libertarian administration. The second said hours ago: “If there is no unforeseen event, the Bases law will be sanctioned.” And Jalil pointed out that “on Monday or Tuesday” he will have a meeting with the national legislators of his province to analyze the path forward. The Catamarca president has influence over the senator Guillermo Andrada.
But none of them have as much weight in the Senate as Zamora from Santiago, given that the three senators from his province -Claudia Ledesma Abdala de Zamora (wife of the governor), Gerardo Montenegro and José Emilio Neder- who make up the National and Popular Front bloc, respond directly to him.
In Santiago del Estero They denied that Zamora is a key factor in the parliamentary debate. As he was able to reconstruct THE NATION, However, at the Casa Rosada they have already tried out some contacts and do not rule out exploring a more concrete approach to the governor.
Calculations
Nothing has been said yet, but an eventual movement by the Casa Rosada in this sense could not only unblock the Bases law, but also would cause a political shock in Peronism and in Kirchnerism, which has still not managed to adjust the leadership and set a common course. In this political situation, a pragmatic bridge with the Government could be crucial for a province like Santiago del Estero.
Some official collaborators recalled that when the Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francos, traveled to the north days ago to meet with the governors of the north, those most bellicose with the libertarian government were Ricardo Quintela (La Rioja) and Gildo Insfrán (Formosa). But, they say, Zamora did not have the same attitude. In addition, some northern governors may be interested in part of the letter of the Bases law, fundamentally the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI).
Although outside of the seven LLA senators there is no fully guaranteed vote, the fine calculation they make in the ruling party is that, of the 39 non-Peronist senators that Villarruel had managed to align, there are five very difficult votes. There they count that of the Santacruceños Jose Maria Carambia and Natalia Gadano; the one from neuquina Lucila Crexell and that of the rionegrin Monica Silva. They also believe that the president of the UCR, Martin Lousteau, You could differentiate yourself from your block and vote against.
This explains why the Government will seek to bring other governors closer with political skill. The ruling party needs 37 votes or 36 votes plus a tiebreaker for the vice president. But that math can change. if there are senators who abstain or are absent.