The confidence expressed by the Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francosin which the laws demanded by the Government will be approved without setbacks in the Senateseems to collide head-on with the climate that exists in an Upper House where, for the moment, both the so-called Base Law As the tax packageThey could find in taxes Profits and al tobacco tough obstacles that threaten to postpone plans Javier Mileywho intends to have both laws passed before the signing of the May Pact.
The toughest challenge seems to be Profitcontemplated in the tax reform bill that Deputies approved in the shadow of the Bases Law. “Today the votes are not there,” is the phrase in which, more words, less words, coincide in offices of both the ruling party and the dialogue-oriented opposition. The problem is the oil-producing Patagonian provinces, whose votes have a greater impact in the Senate than they do in the lower house.
But It is not the only obstacle that the Government will have to face in the Upper House, the vice president Victoria Villarruel and the small troop of seven senators from La Libertad Avanza. Also conflicting is the issue of the increase in the tax on cigarettes from 70% to 73% and the decision taken in Deputies, in a tight vote, to include Tabacalera Sarandí among the subjects covered by the tax.. The company has been avoiding paying the tax thanks to a series of court rulings that benefited its owner, Pablo Otero, or “Mr. Tobacco” as President Milei called him. The tribute was included at the last minute in the Base Law passed by the Deputies.
In this case, the accounts in the upper house they are in the air. The vote on the tax in Deputies crossed all the blocks transversallydemonstrating that Sarandí’s issue is an issue that exceeds ideological or political positions and that in the background, according to the versions that have been circulating through the halls of Congress for more than two weeks, there are lobbies crossed between tobacco companies, with Otero as a side and Massalin Individuals of the other.
Achilles heel
While the projects approved in the Deputies have not yet entered the Upper House, it is not an easy or quick process to compose the final text of an initiative that received changes in the venue of a chaotic and extensive session, the first signs have already been lit on the official board alarm lights over the Income Tax issue.
The Government proposes the restitution of Profits as a way to compensate for the severe fiscal adjustment the one who is subjecting provinces. As it is a co-participating tax, the governors support the measure, although the majority do so in silence in the face of what is known to be an unpopular measure. This is because those workers who earn more than 2.2 million pesos will be taxed again.
The universe of those affected does not seem very extensive, but it does gain importance in the oil-producing provinces, especially those in the southwhere to the high salaries paid by the activity are added payments for unfavorable areas and other extras that make the workers of oil companies lose an important part of their income again with the “reversal” of the profit reduction that Kirchnerism voted last year in the middle of the electoral campaign.
And this is where the alarms ring in the office of Villarruel and the libertarian troop led by Ezequiel Atauche from Jujuy. The thing is that these provinces administer half a dozen votes that threaten the integrity of the tax reform that, if it undergoes a change in the Senate, would have to return for a second review to the Lower House, with the loss of time that this entails given the proximity May 25 as the date for the signing of the pact called by Milei.
If we take into account that, if he repeats his behavior in the lower house, Kirchnerism will put his entire group against it, that is, 33 senators, with the vote of rejection from the Santa Cruz senators, José María Caramba y Natalia Gadano aligned with the governor Claudio Vidal (By Santa Cruz); and of Chubut, Edith Terenzi (UCR) y Andrea Cristina (Pro)which the president responds Ignacio Torres (Pro); It is enough to add the absolute majority, half plus one of the body, and block the Earnings article.
However, the rejection of the restitution of the tax whose elimination promoted Sergio Massa to carry out an electoral campaign would be greater if we take into account that the governor of Black river, Alberto Weretilneckopposes the restitution of Profits, so it is ruled out that the senator Monica Silva, from Together We Are Rpio Negro, will do the same. Different is the case of Neuquenwhere the governor Rolando Figueroa supports the claim of his colleagues in the region, but maintains an alliance with Lucila Crexella senator who usually plays libero and does not always automatically respond to political or regional disagreements.
But the rejection of Ganancias spreads like an oil spill in the Senate, where all the provinces are represented on an equal footing. Thus, in some offices they also count against the restitution of the tax to anti-Kirchnerist Peronists Carlos Espinola (Currents) and Edgardo Kueider (Between rivers). Both voted to eliminate the tax last year and have no governors who can ask for their votes.
In this scenario, Minister Francos will have to work hard to make his optimism that the laws will be passed by the Senate come true. The only possibility left is to subtract votes from the Peronist bench, a difficult mission, although not impossible.