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He spanish bank revised its forecast downwards economic growth for him GDP of Mexico a 1.2% by 2024 and 1% for 2025.
“This decision responds to the weakening of both domestic and external demand, which poses significant challenges for the mexican economy”he explained Carlos Serranochief economist of the BBVA Mexico.
He explained that the country’s economic growth had shown robust performance in the first quarters of the year, with rates close to 4%. “However, the recent deceleration in investing in construction and machinery generates concern.”
He highlighted that although unemployment remains at historically low levels, low investment is a factor that cannot ignore and in the context that in USA Inflation seems to stabilize near 2% (its objective goal), driven by an increase in the supply of raw materials.
Serrano added that nivel global, Markets face various challenges, but demand for manufacturing and services remains strong.
“General inflation has diminished a 4.7%, which suggests that the Bank of Mexico could consider reducing rates, allowing a less restrictive monetary environment, however, it is anticipated that services inflation will continue to be pressured, complicating the economic outlook”.
The Spanish bank noted that uncertainty in financial markets persists, driven by political changes and economical, which will generate volatility in the exchange rate.
“It is expected that the peso could depreciate further towards the end of the year, especially given possible changes in the monetary policy of “US and the presidential elections in that country.”
He projected that as Mexico and the United States navigate these economic challenges, the prospects for short and long term They will depend on the evolution of inflation, employment and the monetary policy decisions made by Banxico and the Fed.
The financial institution projected that the exchange rate will close 2024 and 2025 at 19.80 pesos per dollar and 19.20 units per currency.
Informal employment persists
When presenting the “Mexico Situation” Reportthe bank’s economists detailed that, so far this year, the growth of formal employment has experienced a notable slowdown, although the labor market as a whole continues to show some resilience, while the informality rate has remained stable in 54.2%, which represents a decrease in 3.4 percentage points compared to the average in the same period.
“Although the rates of unemployment and informality remain below their historical averages, data from the IMSS “They reflect that the creation of formal employment has constantly lost strength, registering lower interannual growth rates compared to previous years.”
In regards to the deceleration of the growth of formal employment, the report specifies that it is also reflected in the trend of wages and the wage bill in real terms.
“In August, the real salary presented a growth rate of 5.1%, while the wage bill grew by 8.8%. These levels are 0.6 and 2.5 percentage points lower than the average growth of these variables in 2023”. In this context, a closing of the year with downward figures is anticipated.