Thanks to the lesser severity of the current Omicron subvariants, according to the virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco we are faced with a macroscopic underestimation of the real cases
From the record diffusivity of the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, which has been dominant in our country for months, to a winter that seems to have entered its most rigid phase, thus encouraging people to stay indoors; from the almost total absence of restrictions – masks are currently mandatory only in hospitals and nursing homes – to a vaccination campaign now at a standstill (less than one in ten Italians received the second booster dose): there would seem to be all the conditions for a real boom in Covid infections, yet the weekly bulletins report an average of less than 5,000 new cases per day, almost 94% less than in the same period last year. The data relating to deaths is also encouraging: today just over 60 a day, twelve months ago instead above 300. To what can this marked improvement in indicators be attributed? Are we really seeing a drastic slowdown of the epidemic or is it a statistical bias due to the increase in non-positive reports? There is a point from which to start: the fact that in the vast majority of cases the symptoms triggered by the virus are now comparable at most to that of a seasonal flu. This above all for two reasons: on the one hand the characteristics of the same subvariants currently in circulation, which mainly affect the upper airways rather than the lungs, on the other hand the high protection against serious illness guaranteed by the first three doses (especially if associated with eventual healings from Omicron), received by over 68% of the population.
Effectively this hybrid immunity due to the combination of vaccinations and healings, combined with the less aggressiveness of the virus – he explains to Courier
Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist at the State University of Milan and medical director of the Irccs Galeazzi -, causes the disease to generally manifest itself in a less heavy way than in the past. So many positives, not imagining they are, end up not swabbing. Others, on the other hand, after three years of the pandemic are limited to do-it-yourself tests so as not to be forced to stay indoors for at least five days (at this link the rules currently in force, ndr). It therefore seems clear to me that we are faced with a gross underestimation of real cases.
Which patients are in intensive care today, despite the aforementioned lower symptom severity?
These are elderly or very frail people, often with vaccinations long gone and perhaps limited to the first two doses.
It is therefore essential to reiterate the importance of undergoing boosters. Absolutely yes because with Covid-19, unlike what happens with most other infectious diseases, not even healing guarantees lifelong protection. It is therefore natural that recalls represent an opportunity for everyone, even more so for the frail.
As demonstrated by the WHO’s decision not to declare the emergency over, the pandemic is actually still ongoing in China. Is there anything to worry about?
The more the virus circulates, the more opportunities it has to mutate. So far the evolution has been positive, in the sense that more contagious variants are prevailing, but which are not capable of triggering a more serious disease. However, it is clear that one day from this process of random replication a more fearsome lineage could also emerge.
Would you start from scratch in this case?
Fortunately not, because it is presumable that the vaccines at our disposal would still maintain a good protective capacity against serious illness. In any case, this is an aspect to be monitored, so it remains essential to maintain a high level of epidemiological surveillance through sequencing activities. From what has emerged so far, the virus seems destined to cause not a constant endemic, but a series of periodic waves. Also for this reason, the development of vaccines that require only one annual administration, and which perhaps at the same time also protect against seasonal flu, could certainly play a decisive role.
February 10, 2023 (change February 10, 2023 | 10:48 am)
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