The right-wing parties in Italy are getting stronger in preparation for the snap elections that will be held this coming Sunday. In good old days, the mere fact that the third largest economy in the European Union is about to break sharply to the right would have captured the headlinesand on the continent. But these are not normal times, and between the energy crisis and the inflation crisis, between the war raging on the borders of the European Union and the recession hovering over it, the fact that Italy is expected to elect a distinctly Eurosceptic right-wing coalition on Sunday, contrary to the situation in the last three years, does not receive massive coverage.
The Europeans are apparently content with the fact that withdrawal from the Union is off the table at this point, that the country is in a debt crisis that makes it practically dependent on aid from the European Union, and that many of the radical positions have been “refined” in recent months in an attempt to seize power.
Two of the three parties expected to form the next government – “Brothers of Italy” and “Lega” – have previously called for Italy to withdraw from the Eurozone, disband the European Union and deport asylum seekers. The first among them is a political reincarnation of a post-fascist party and its leader, Giorgia Maloney (45), is on the safe way to become the first female prime minister in the history of Italy.
Rising prices and economic instability
Europe is struggling to understand what will be the economic and political line of the new government that is expected to lead Italy starting next week: a tripartite coalition of the “Brothers of Italy” party (only 4% in the previous elections, 25% now) led by Meloni, the “Lega” led by Matteo Salvini (13 % support) and “Forza Italia” (7%), led by Silvio BRelusconi, in the middle of his ninth decade.
Maloney, who seems to have succeeded in cracking the recipe for public sympathy for the European extreme right in these days of rising prices and economic instability, refrains from providing direct answers, but outlines a collision course with the European Union. The main points of friction: the Italian budget, the allowed deficit rate, immigration laws and economic reforms led by incumbent Prime Minister Mario Draghi, which may now be shelved. “They are a little worried over there in Europe,” Maloney said with a smile at an election rally held in Milan last week, “this is because the fun is over. Italy will now begin to protect its national interests, like other countries do.”
Apparently, it is difficult to understand what the Italian politician means, who began her career in a post-fascist youth movement and became, with the help of her time in the opposition, a popular figure with conservative right-wing positions (“We are like the Tories in Britain, like the Likud in Israel,” she said about two months ago). The European Union is going out of its way to help Italy, partly because it is “too big to collapse”, any acute economic crisis in the country will immediately affect the Eurozone. Among other things, the interest rate in the Eurozone is low due to the precarious situation of the Italian debt (debt-GDP ratio of more than 150%), and the European BankThe Central Bank is actually subsidizing the debt by massive purchases of Italian government bonds, at the expense of its northern neighbors. In addition, the Union agreed after the Corona epidemic to establish a “rehabilitation fund” that will flow no less than 200 billion euros in common European debt to Italy, half of it as a grant.
But the atmosphere in the country is not like that. Italians are regularly at the bottom of the ranking of residents satisfied with the EU. Many still feel that joining the Euro was a mistake, and that their lives were made worse and more expensive because of it. Now, with inflation in the country climbing to 8.4% in August, industry dependent on Russian gas threatening to collapse and restaurants closing due to energy costs, they are demanding a change of direction.
Italians will receive a patriotic economy”
Maloney promises them that. Instead of the pro-European Draghi, Brussels will now receive Maloney and Salvini, two Eurosceptics who previously expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, but changed their minds following the invasion of Ukraine. They will receive a “patriotic economy” which is not clear what it means. They will get a conflict course between the national budget, which needs to get a green light from Brussels in order for Italy to be “entitled” to the hundreds of billions in aid, and the situation on the ground. “We are concerned,” a senior member of the union told the “Politico” website this week, “Italy has for a long time been the weakest link in the Eurozone. Its debt levels are high. What happens in Italy affects the entire bloc.”
The first sign of economic uncertainty appeared already last month, after the rating agency “Moody’s” lowered the Italian credit rating from “stable” to “negative”, only one level above the rating considered “junk”. The reasoning was that “the projected coalition may try and test the determination of the European Commission to impose certain conditions in order to receive financial assistance.”
Draghi, who was “called to the flag” to implement an economic aid program, tried in his short term to address deep problems in the Italian economy, including free competition, government regulation and labor issues. Maloney and the “Brothers of Italy”, as well as the “Lega”, opposed these reforms in parliament. The two parties made it clear that they intend to “renegotiate” the conditions set by the Commission for Italy to receive 200 billion euros in economic aid.
An alternative to Western European liberalism
Politically, Italy may now join a growing group of countries that offer an alternative to the liberal policies and values of Western European countries. Countries like Hungary led by Viktor Orban, who also cultivate close ties with Moscow and undermine the unity of the Union vis-a-vis Russia. The calls to withdraw from the Eurozone may have been shelved, but it is not clear how the government will behave on energy issues (Salvini has already called to “rethink the sanctions”) or on the issues of accepting asylum seekers and refugees.
At the end of last week, for example, both parties in the European Parliament voted against a resolution condemning Hungary and indirectly Orban for being a “threat” to the values of the European Union, among other things due to their positions on LGBT issues and the rule of law. On the other hand, Forza Italia led by Berlusconi supported the proposal. He himself said that his party would be the “defender” of the Union, of NATO and of liberal values in the expected coalition.
“If our allies, whose I have respect and esteem, go in a different direction – we will not remain in the government,” threatened Berlusconi. If at this point, the Union’s hopes for stability and harmony in the face of the new Italian government depend on Berlusconi, then the situation is fragile.