The eighth round of nuclear talks in Vienna will open tomorrow in a pessimistic mood, but the US and powers appear determined to find out until the end whether an agreement can be reached with Iran without resorting to other options such as tightening sanctions or military action against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Saudi Arabia, led by Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince and the “strongest man” in the kingdom, is preparing for all the scenarios in the fight against the Iranian nuclear threat.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein last weekend called for “direct negotiations” between Iran and the United States to revive the nuclear deal while his country mediates between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Would the West help though? Because KSA has already turned to PK & China for assistance. The Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force, formed in the 80s & unveiled 30 years later is speculated to have missile cities armed with missiles including the DF-3 & the recently procured DF-21. pic.twitter.com/h4RCFJulYx
— (@AhamadNooh) December 5, 2020
Negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has agreed to grant visas to three Iranian diplomats to stay in the kingdom, as a new sign of improving relations between the two countries, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian said at a press conference in Tehran with his Iraqi counterpart Fouad Hussein.
He announced that the next round of Saudi-Iranian talks would be held soon in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Iran and Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties between them in 2016, this year they began direct talks that included four rounds held in Baghdad, the Iraqi mediation was intended to prevent a military clash between them on Iraqi soil.
The talks began in April in Baghdad secretly. Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is trying to save what is left and at least get his hands on an achievement that will bring peace to Saudi Arabia like halting Houthi military attacks from Yemen on Saudi cities and its oil facilities, so he turned to the secret channel with Iran.
The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which is the mouthpiece of Hezbollah and Iran positions, reported on April 19 that Saudi Arabia and Iran had begun a strategic dialogue on all issues related to them, which could lead to major change in the region, especially on the Lebanese and Yemeni fronts.
The main mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia is Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Khatami, who is accepted by both sides.
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Iran is the head of the Shiite axis and the great enemy of Saudi Arabia and the Sunni world, but the Saudi heir feels great distress that has apparently left him no choice but to adapt to the new situation.
The plight of the Saudi regent stems from several reasons:
A. Muhammad bin Salman is unacceptable to the Biden government who accuse him of responsibility for the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Hashukaji and for a systematic violation of human rights in Saudi Arabia.
B. Muhammad bin Salman became embroiled in a conspiracy case against Jordanian King Abdullah and his associates Bassem Awadallah and Sheriff Hassan bin Zeid sentenced in Jordan to lengthy prison terms after being accused that together with Prince Hamza tried to plan a coup against the Hashemite regime.
C. Saudi Arabia’s war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are loyal to Iran, is getting more complicated, it has been going on for more than 6 years without a decision with a clear advantage of the Houthis. The war has become an internal and daily nightmare in Saudi Arabia, the Houthis attacking with ballistic missiles and trapped UAVs civilian targets inside Saudi Arabia, including the capital Riyadh, and the Aramco oil facilities.
D. Nuclear talks in Vienna – Saudi Arabia has found itself outside the powers’ nuclear talks with representatives of Iran in Vienna, President Biden does not consider Saudi Arabia’s position and rushes back to the nuclear agreement with Iran regardless of Saudi Arabia’s position.
God. Muhammad bin Salman fears a move of overt normalization with Israel. Although Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the same side of the barricade, he fears internal unrest in the kingdom over his political and military failures and the possibility that the Biden administration will try to prevent him from becoming Saudi Arabia’s next king.
Military preparations
In parallel with Saudi Arabia’s secret negotiations with Iran, the Saudi Crown Prince is preparing his country for the possibility of a war with Iran or the outbreak of a regional war in the Middle East.
The Saudi fear is a dead end in the nuclear talks in Vienna, the failure of the talks to end may hasten the option of Israel attacking the nuclear facilities in Iran.
Iran has already announced that in such a case it will respond immediately by attacking American bases in the Gulf states and attacking any country related to Israel and that it has assisted it openly and secretly.
The American network CNN reported last weekend that the US intelligence agencies estimate that Saudi Arabia is actively producing ballistic missiles with the help of China.
Saudi Arabia has previously purchased ballistic missiles from China, but has failed to build its own missiles. The Biden administration fears that the Saudi move could complicate its efforts to extend the 2015 nuclear deal to a larger agreement that would also include Iran’s ballistic missile project and impose restrictions on it and that it would complicate the regional power balance.
Iran is likely to cling to Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missile production to oppose any attempt to impose restrictions on its ballistic missile project.
Arab commentators claim that senior administration officials are behind the CNN publication to put pressure on Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman to stop producing his ballistic missiles with the help of China, they say Ben Salman was prepared for the worst case scenario to protect his country from Iran, official Saudi Arabia Keeps quiet and does not comment on CNN posts.
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, President Biden is outraged by the Saudi move and is preparing to impose sanctions on China, and the United States also fears an increase in the arms race phenomenon in the Middle East.
The Biden administration is reluctant to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia, a US strategic partner in the Middle East. It is worth remembering that the US administration has long refused to sell ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is concerned about President Biden’s policy toward Iran, he also saw how the US withdrew from Afghanistan, the Gulf states fear the US is no longer willing to play a crucial role in the region and they may be left alone in the face of Iranian danger.
Ben Salman did not forget how the Trump administration did nothing when Iran, through the Houthi rebels, attacked in 2019 with ballistic missiles and precision drones the Aramco oil facilities in Albukaik, Saudi Arabia, leaving Saudi Arabia alone in the campaign.
Negotiations between the powers and Iran on the nuclear deal could only get further complicated, the Saudis will not give up their security interests.