In Berlin, we do not hide it: the differences exist with France. No alarmism either, because the Franco-German couple has traditionally had its ups and downs. However, it is indeed in a hollow that the two countries find themselves. There are many signs of this, the latest being Emmanuel Macron’s pike in the middle of the European Council in Brussels, last Thursday, October 20.
For the French president, Germany “It is isolated”.“There are not many moments in Franco-German relations where the dissonances are so obvious”observes the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
The friendship that the war abuses
Ronja Kempin, from the Berlin Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), is surprised at the ” bad condition “ relationships. “A year ago, when you read the coalition treaty of the new German government, you could imagine a new start for relations between the two countries. But it is the opposite. Each makes its decisions without consulting the other partner.she regrets.
For Tanja Börzel, of the Free University of Berlin, a series of elements explain this bad patch, including the very different style between Scholz the silent and Macron the voluble. “Between them, personal relations have not warmed up, and their positions are also quite different. Unlike Mr. Macron, Olaf Scholz is not a visionary. In matters of European policy, the chancellery does not play a constructive role”notes this expert.
Above all, the war in Ukraine is undermining the coordination of policies. “The two countries are following different paths in terms of energy security and green transition and Germany is disappointed that France is not more open to the gas pipeline project to Spain”, notes Daniela Schwarzer, executive director of the Open Society Foundation. “The interests diverge but it is true that we are living in a situation of extraordinary stress. Germany is managing the more or less complete reversal of its energy and Russian policy,” she recalls.
Learn to listen again
Everyone agrees on the lack of communication between the two capitals and the resulting misunderstandings. Example with the announcement, in March, by Berlin, of the rapid purchase of American F35 planes, instead of betting on the Scaf project, certainly 100% European, but still in development. Same thing about the 200 billion euros intended to reduce the effects of inflation on German households and businesses. Emmanuel Macron criticized Berlin for not having consulted him beforehand on this plan criticized for its magnitude, and deemed not to be united. Laconic, Olaf Scholz replied that other countries, including France, had announced aid plans. End of the discussion.
Is Germany showing little solidarity? No, believes Tanja Börzel. “These 200 billion euros are in the interest of Europe. No one has an interest in Germany falling into recession over time. I don’t see anything ‘unsupportive’ on Berlin’s side, but rather a communication problem which has earned it justified criticism.” explains this political scientist from the “Contestation of the Liberal Script” research group.
Fear of being spurned
Is Germany also “isolated” that the French president is letting it be understood? No, says Ronja Kempin. “Political leaders have understood that Europe’s center of gravity is shifting towards Eastern Europe and the countries of the North. Germany has been much criticized by these same countries for its dependence on Russia. She tries to do her mea culpa. Suddenly, France feels a little pushed back and does not know what place Berlin will give to the Franco-German couple.notes the political scientist.
In this context, her colleague from the Open Society Foundation Daniela Schwarzer advises the two countries “not to cancel meetings” as they did, but “to multiply them”. A first step should be taken this Wednesday with the arrival of Olaf Scholz in Paris.