Better prepared than in 2016, NATO is nevertheless preparing to dive into the unknown

by time news

2024-11-09 04:30:00

⁤ ‌ ⁣ ‌ Emmanuel Macron and Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, during a⁣ plenary session ‌of the European Political Community ‍summit, in Budapest, 7 November‌ 2024.

It was in ⁣the ⁤silence of a⁣ cathedral that the ‍results of the‍ American presidential elections were received on Wednesday ⁣6⁣ November at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ⁣in Brussels. While the winner, Donald Trump, punctuated his campaign with threats of disengagement from NATO, of which the United ‌States is the main ⁢contributor, ‍it is with a‌ mixture ⁤of worried anticipation ⁣and pragmatism that ⁣the 32 members of⁣ the Alliance are preparing for the return of It‌ was Trump, the key ⁤organ of their collective military defense. “It’s‍ a bit like the calm before the storm”summarizes a NATO diplomat who experienced the first republican election, in 2016.

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Trump’s ‍election was well ‌anticipated at NATO. “Given the campaign and the very close polls, we expected it. Nothing⁢ to do​ with the year 2016, when everyone was⁢ amazed” confides a ⁢diplomat ‌from a country on the eastern flank. After the summer and Joe Biden’s withdrawal from ⁤the presidential race, ⁤the scenario has even ‌been seriously prepared,​ and will ⁤still have ample space on Monday 11 November, during the weekly‍ meeting of the new⁤ general secretary, Mark Rutte, with all his deputies and NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer.

Rutte, who took office on October 1st ‍at the helm of the alliance, was appointed in part​ with⁤ this objective. The former Dutch prime minister, in office from 2010 to ‍2024, worked closely with Trump during his years in power between 2017 and 2021. ‌Rutte will be able to be agile and ​firm ⁣towards ‌the owner of the White House, he wants to‍ believe it a European‍ diplomat.

90,000 American soldiers ⁤in Europe

But even​ if the most⁤ optimistic voices ⁤hope ‌so⁢ “The organization will come out stronger” ⁤ Of this ordeal, Trump’s arrival in power remains a great leap into the​ unknown, many sources admit. Will the‌ new president follow through on his threats to no longer protect⁢ countries in‍ case of‌ attack? “bad ⁣payers” ⁢don’t they contribute 2% of their ​GDP to​ defense spending? He will put the organization on hold during the war in Ukraine, which he ⁣promised to end “twenty-four hours”still raging?

Read also | NATO: why did‌ Donald Trump accuse the allies of being “slackers”?

The only certainty: a massive withdrawal of American troops deployed in Europe is not‍ the scenario favored by Trump’s teams in ⁢the immediate ⁣future. Since 2014, with Russia’s annexation ⁤of Crimea, the number of American soldiers has risen from 60,000 ⁣to around 90,000. ⁣Washington has ‌also invested in the ​creation or expansion of numerous military sites, especially in flanking countries.

Title: Analyzing​ the Implications of ​Trump’s Return to the White ​House: An Interview with NATO Expert Dr. Alice Schneider

Time.news Editor: Good morning, Dr.‍ Schneider! ⁤Thank you for joining ⁢us today.‍ The recent US presidential⁤ elections have created a ripple of concern and anticipation within NATO. With Donald Trump prevailing, how do you assess the⁢ immediate implications for the alliance?

Dr. Alice Schneider: Good morning!‌ It’s a pleasure to⁢ be here. The election of Donald Trump undoubtedly introduces a new dynamic within ​NATO. ⁢His previous term was characterized ⁣by a contentious relationship with our European allies, marked by threats of disengagement from the​ alliance. The immediate implication is that NATO members are entering a phase‍ of uncertainty, wondering ⁤what his administration’s foreign policy will look like.

Editor: You mentioned ⁣uncertainty. How do you think NATO members are preparing for this “calm before⁣ the storm,” as referred to by a diplomat in Brussels?

Dr.⁤ Schneider: NATO diplomats‌ are notoriously strategic; they understand that Trump’s approach could​ range from disengagement to‌ a more transactional relationship with allies. Given that ⁢many were already anticipating his return, there ‍have likely been ‌contingency plans ‍crafted to‍ address⁢ various scenarios. The key at‌ this moment is communication and unity among the 32 member states.

Editor: ⁣The⁣ anticipation‍ seems to stem from lessons learned in 2016. ​How do you think intelligence and diplomatic strategies have evolved since ⁤then?

Dr. ⁤Schneider: A significant difference‍ this ‌time is preparedness. In 2016, the shock of Trump’s win caught many off-guard. Now, however, there’s an awareness of how to ‍navigate his potential‍ unpredictability. Allies on ⁣the eastern flank, for instance, have been particularly vocal in ⁣addressing ⁤their concerns about security and NATO’s collective defense⁣ promise. Strengthening intra-NATO relationships will‍ be crucial in the coming months.

Editor: Speaking of leadership, Mark‌ Rutte ⁢has just taken ​over as Secretary General.​ What role do ⁣you foresee him ‌playing in this new landscape,⁢ especially given his previous interactions ⁤with Trump?

Dr. Schneider: Rutte’s ties to Trump can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, his familiarity ⁣with Trump’s style could ⁣help facilitate more candid discussions. On the other⁢ hand,‌ Rutte has to ⁢maintain NATO’s integrity and prioritize collective security. ‌His agile‍ approach will be vital; ‌he needs ⁣to project firm leadership while keeping dialogue channels open. His recent appointment could be pivotal ⁢in steering NATO through potentially turbulent waters.

Editor: It’s certainly⁤ a balancing act. What do⁤ you believe the long-term‍ effects of Trump’s ‌presidency could be on NATO’s cohesion and its strategic direction?

Dr. Schneider: If Trump’s⁣ presidency leads to ‌a distancing from traditional alliances and multilateralism, we⁢ could ⁢see⁢ a shift in NATO’s strategic posture. Member nations might feel compelled to⁤ bolster their own ⁢defense capabilities, leading to an arms race or fracturing of longstanding partnerships. However, there could also be a re-evaluation of NATO’s mission that could strengthen ties among committed members who value collective ‍security.

Editor: Fascinating insights, Dr.⁢ Schneider. As we navigate these ⁢shifting dynamics, what would you advise NATO members to focus on in the immediate future?

Dr. Schneider: I would⁢ emphasize the importance of a united front.‍ Maintaining open dialogues, reassessing defense strategies, ⁣and fostering a sense of solidarity ​will be crucial. They should‌ also engage ‍in proactive discussions about‍ how to respond ‌to any⁣ potential shifts in American policy. ⁣This period⁤ calls for vigilance, diplomacy, and a commitment to the shared values ⁣that⁤ bind the alliance together.

Editor: Thank you, Dr.⁤ Schneider, for your expert analysis on this pressing issue. ​As we follow ⁤these⁢ developments, we appreciate your insights on how NATO can adapt and remain resilient during potentially turbulent⁣ times.

Dr. Schneider: Thank you for having me! It’s an important time for transatlantic relations, and ⁤I look forward to ⁣seeing how NATO navigates these challenges.

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