2024-02-03 16:05:35
Time.news – Pakistan, a country that counts well 250 million inhabitants, will go to the polls next Thursday 8 February, to elect the composition of the government and the National Assembly. An important vote, not only because it comes in a delicate moment for the entire Islamic world, but also for the two recent sentences inflicted on the former prime minister and legend of Pakistani cricket, Imran Khan. Hit by a no-confidence vote in 2022, Khan left office and the party he founded, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has suffered several blows from the judiciary that contribute to creating a climate of uncertainty in view of the next elections. The political panorama in view of the elections is made up of parties that have occupied the government seats in the past and smaller political movements, which however can count on a reservoir of consensus on an ethnic or territorial basis. A situation that is the mirror of an enormous, varied and complicated country. One of the main parties in the running is the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), a movement led by the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif which obtained a majority in the 2013 elections for the third time.
The uncertainties of age now weigh on Sharif himself, he is 74 years old, but also the corruption accusations that forced him to leave office in 2017. Sentenced to 10 years, he did not take part in the 2018 elections. In 2022, following Imran Khan’s resignation, it was Shebaz Sharif, Nawaz’s brother, who took the reins of the new government after having been the party’s strongman in the Punjab region, the stronghold of the Sharif family. A family that gained votes in politics thanks to the construction of infrastructure, but then lost support due to inflation and accusations of corruption. Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan last October after 4 years of voluntary exile in Great Britain and can count on strong popular support, the votes of Punjab, but also on the possible, according to analysts, support of the powerful Pakistani army.
However, movements affiliated with Imran Khan’s PTI party are in the running. The leader from prison has started a battle against the judicial system and the army which keeps alive the hopes of those who remained at the side of the former prime minister and cricket champion. A battle which, outside prison, is fought by Gohar Ali Khan, a secretary who has led the party to more conservative positions. Imran Khan won the elections in 2018 also thanks to the army, who then turned his back on him, paving the way for the vote of no confidence which forced him to resign. An unexpected event in the country’s history that sparked the anger of Imran, who accused the United States and the army of conspiring against him. After his resignation, Imran called demonstrations and called for early elections. However, the situation worsened with the arrest of the former prime minister last May, an event which was followed by protests and violent repression.
To make the situation worse, the two sentences of 10 and 14 years imposed in recent days. Imran Khan currently has 150 cases against him and hundreds of party cadres were forced to leave PTI. The party is also forced to run as an independent, but can still count on strong popular support. Another party in the running is the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Center-left movement led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and his father Asif Ali. PPP has a long history of dealings with power. Founded by Bilawal’s grandfather, former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, then led by his mother Benazir, prime minister twice. A heavy legacy for Zardari, just 35 years old and already Foreign Minister in 2022. However, his young age could work in his favor in a country with an average age of just 20 years old, politically dominated by seventy-year-olds in recent mandates.
However, the Bhutto dynasty weighs heavily terrible management of the 2022 floods, which devastated the province of Sindh, the family’s traditional stronghold. A stain that pushed the Bhuttos to focus heavily on an electoral campaign focused on young people and on the fight against climate change. The Awami National Party (ANP) will represent the strong Pashtun component of the country. Strengthened by the votes of the Khyber Pakhtunkwa province, located in the north-east, the movement’s objective is to take power in that area from PTI. Led by Asfandyar Wali Khan and of progressive inspiration, the party was weakened by corruption accusations that kept it out of action for 20 years.
The movement Muttahida Qaumi (MQM) has been there for years main political force in Karachi, the largest city and economic center of Pakistan. A party that has often taken part in government coalitions, including in 2018, only to then opt for a vote of no confidence in Imran Khan. In 2016 a fracture split the movement into two, a London section and one in Pakistan. However, the party has shown that it knows how to regroup and sit at the negotiating table on several occasions. The stronghold is Karachi, but the game with PTI is also open in the Sindh region, where expectations are high thanks to lists full of young and aggressive candidates. A direct antagonist of the latter will be Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Led by leader Siraj ul Haq it is one of the oldest parties in the country. Conservatives close to PTI, with a program focused on religion, can count on a large apparatus, but are coming off disappointing results that have put them out of the game for 20 years. Last success in 2002, under the presidency, obtained by a coup, of the former army chief Pervez Musharraf. JI is aiming in particular at the Khyber region, where the young Hafiz Naeem will lead the campaign. A religious party, fresh from a good result in the local elections in Karachi, which now aims to obtain votes with a more moderate political agenda.
Another religious party is Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam (JUI-F), a competitor of PTI and JI in the Khyber region. A strong and rooted presence, especially in religious and conservative environments from which it aims to obtain votes. Another party that could have weight in the formation of a government coalition. The Balochistan Awami party (BAP) will represent the Baluchi minority, inhabitants of the vast border region with Iran which was recently the scene of an exchange of rockets with Tehran. Founded only in 2018, it can count on the activism and skills of its leader, founder and current interim prime minister, Anwaar-ul-Haq. He will have the task of uniting a movement born from a fragile alliance between Baluchistan clans. BAP supported PTI in the government formed in 2018. The party is aiming for at least 10 seats of Baluchistan and can become a balancer in the formation of the new government.
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