2023-08-03 17:23:13
The blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh complicates a peace process initiated between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the end of the 2020 war. The conflict for control of this small, coveted territory has cost the lives of several thousand fighters on each side, and resulted in the defeat of Armenia and a ceasefire agreement under the aegis of Russia, providing in particular for the return to Azerbaijan of whole sections of Nagorno-Karabakh – a region populated by Armenians planted in the middle of Azerbaijani territory.
The peace negotiations, which cover subjects as varied as the fate of prisoners of war, the demarcation of borders, the regulation of cross-border transport and trade in the region, and the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, were marked by many tensions. In addition to the start of the blockade of this territory, the year 2022 has thus seen three resumptions of fighting, the bloodiest of which, in September, left at least 200 dead on the Armenian side.
Discussions moving at an intense pace
Despite these tensions, the negotiations have advanced at an intense pace, with contacts multiplying under the sponsorship of Brussels, Moscow or Washington. “I believe that an agreement is in sight, within reach”commented US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on May 4, after four days of negotiations in the United States. Alas, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev now seems less in a hurry, probably reassured by the re-election at the end of May of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his main support in the region.
The last round of negotiations, held in Brussels on July 15, did not offer any progress. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, for his part, believes that the negotiations are weighed down by the “aggressive rhetoric” of Baku, and by the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, which he described as “politics of ethnic cleansing”.
The two parties have not given up, however, on bringing the negotiations to a successful conclusion by the end of the year. The progress recorded on several themes is real, particularly on the issue of transport. The debates would be livelier concerning security guarantees. “As Azerbaijan violates the November 2020 agreement, Armenia asks for international guarantees for the application of the future peace treaty, but Baku opposes it”explains the Armenian analyst Tigran Grigorian.
There remains the question of Nagorno-Karabakh. On this subject, Armenia has evolved. Yerevan no longer defends the territory’s self-determination but says it is ready to recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over the region, on the condition that Azerbaijan respects the rights of the Armenians living there, and if a dialogue is established between Baku and the separatist authorities within the framework of an international platform. Azerbaijan, for its part, refuses any international interference in what it considers to be its internal policy.
“Armenia has almost no control over the situation”
The authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh are critical of this evolution of the Armenian position, and continue to claim their right to self-determination. “If the Azeris can persuade us that it is more in our interest to be part of Azerbaijan than to be independent, then we can talk about it, and decide by referendumsays Artak Beglarian, adviser to the Minister of State of the Republic of Artsakh, the name of the unrecognized state entity of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, it seems impossible to us to live under the authority of the genocidal regime in Baku. »
Neither the blockade nor this disagreement should however block the outcome of the peace process, even if the final wording of the treaty leaves the subject of Nagorno-Karabakh somewhat vague. “Nikol Pashinyan wants to decouple issues regarding Karabakh from those regarding Armenianotes Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center think tank. It is an adaptation to the new post-war reality. It is also an acknowledgment of the fact that Armenia has almost no control over the situation. »
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Eight months of blockade
November 2020. End of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, defeat of Armenia. The region loses several territories and a Russian peacekeeping force is deployed.
December 12, 2022, start of the blockade. Azerbaijani activists backed by Baku and posing as “ecoactivists” block the Lachin corridor under the pretext of protesting against the mining of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.
February 22, 2023. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) orders Azerbaijan to“ensure the unimpeded movement of people, vehicles and goods along the Lachin Corridor”Without effect.
April 23, 2023. Construction of an Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, in violation of the November 2020 ceasefire agreement.
June 15, 2023. Azerbaijan seizes on the pretext of a skirmish between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers to completely close the Lachin corridor.
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