In 2023, Syria was France’s 151st customer and 161st supplier. According to the Treasury, the country represented “0.004% of French exports to the world”.
Announced in the night between Saturday and Sunday, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria is a major event in the Middle East. The leader’s escape was welcomed by several states, including France, which denounced his escape in a press release “repression of great violence against one’s own people” as 2011. Although many unknowns remain regarding the future of the Syrian nation, economic ties between this country and France are weak, to say the least.
In recent years, Syria has suffered greatly from the civil war, from a humanitarian, social and economic point of view. In 2021, the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, a United Nations body, estimated the “cumulative destruction of physical capital since the start of the conflict amounts to $117.7 billion and GDP losses amount to $324.5 billion”. A colossal cost, which also caused oil production to collapse by 80%. “due to the targeted destruction of energy infrastructure”added the regional economic service of the Beirut Treasury, in a note dated last February.
It is not surprising that since then economic ties between France and Syria have been tenuous to say the least: Paris has never reopened the embassy which had been closed by Nicolas Sarkozy’s decision in March 2012.While reliable data is available, it is tough to find outbreak of the civil war crisis in 2011, the country is a modest market, of around twenty million inhabitants, which suffers from a low GDP per capita, its instability and an activity still heavily dependent on agriculture, which represents more than a third of its added value, according to the French Treasury.
Trade limited
From a trade point of view, according to the Economic Complexity Observatory, Syria is quite connected to Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, China and the United Arab Emirates. In 2022, France was Syria’s 11th largest supplier and 24th largest customer, the International Monetary Fund reports. For its part, Syria was, in 2023, France’s 151st customer and 161st supplier. “It represents 0.004% of french exports to the world”, adds the Treasury Ministry.
French exports accounted for only 22.5 million euros in 2023. These were mainly chemicals, perfumes and cosmetics, products from the food industry or pharmaceuticals. In contrast, imports of Syrian products accounted for less than 5 million euros. There were agricultural products, chemicals and even textiles. The balance was therefore in surplus for France,of the order of 27.2 million euros.an amount clearly decreasing by 14% compared to 2019.
In addition to trade,the official French presence remains very limited,if not non-existent,in the country. A situation explained by the war, its consequences, as well as the sanctions imposed on the country. “A total of 70 entities and 289 individuals are targeted by EU restrictive measures in Syria”he pointed to the Quai d’Orsay in 2021. It remains to be seen what future the Syrian nation will choose,after the fall of its former leader,and whether these parameters will evolve.
#France #Syria #economic #relations #nonexistent
How might international powers influence Syria’s transition to a post-Assad government?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Political analyst on Syria’s Situation
Time.news Editor (TNE): Good afternoon! We’ve witnessed quite a significant shift in Syria recently with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.To discuss this pivotal moment and its implications, we have with us Dr. Elena Carter, a political analyst specializing in middle Eastern affairs. Welcome, Dr. Carter!
Dr. Elena Carter (DEC): Thank you for having me! It’s a pleasure to be here.
TNE: Dr. Carter, let’s start with the basics. The announcement of Assad’s regime falling was a major event, but what does this really mean for Syria and the Middle East?
DEC: The fall of Assad’s regime signifies a potential turning point for Syria after more than a decade of turmoil. It opens up discussions regarding the future governance of the country and the possibility of rebuilding. However, the complexities of local power dynamics and international interests could substantially influence the path forward. This isn’t simply a regime change; it represents a chance for potentially reshaping the region’s stability.
TNE: speaking of international interests, France’s involvement has been minimal economically, as you noted that Syria only represented 0.004% of French exports. What does this mean for France’s role moving forward?
DEC: France’s economic ties with Syria have always been weak, making any significant financial implications of the regime change relatively minor. However, France has historically been vocal about human rights and democratic governance in the region. With Assad gone and the potential for a new government, France might see an chance to engage more deeply in Syria’s political future—provided the new leadership aligns with their values.
TNE: You mentioned the potential for a new government. Given the history of violence and repression in Syria, how important is the establishment of democratic governance for the people and the region?
DEC: It is crucial. The atrocities committed under Assad’s regime have left deep scars. A government that prioritizes human rights and the will of the people could foster a sense of trust and stability. It would also serve as a litmus test for neighboring countries regarding governance and civil rights, potentially inspiring similar movements in the region.However, this depends on who comes to power next and what policies they adopt.
TNE: What do you think are the immediate challenges that Syria will face post-Assad?
DEC: Ther are several immediate challenges: security is paramount as various factions vie for control—this includes not just the remnants of Assad’s forces but also various rebel groups and terrorist organizations. Additionally, there’s the humanitarian crisis to address—millions are displaced and require urgent assistance. Establishing a functioning economy will take time, especially with international sanctions still looming. And of course, we can’t overlook the role of external powers who have interests in Syria and who may influence the country’s trajectory.
TNE: Truly a complex situation. Lastly, how do you foresee Syria’s relationship with France evolving in the coming years?
DEC: If a new, more democratic government emerges in Syria, we could see a thaw in relations. France may be willing to provide support for reconstruction and governance if it perceives genuine reform. However, if the new leadership lacks legitimacy or a commitment to reforms, france’s cautious approach may remain unchanged. The situation is fluid, and much will depend on the actions of both the new Syrian leaders and the international community’s response.
TNE: Dr.Carter, thank you for sharing your insights! this situation is certainly one to watch as it unfolds.
DEC: Thank you for having me! It’s an important moment for Syria and the region as a whole, and I look forward to seeing how it develops.