President Biden hailed the downfall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad on Sunday, deeming it a ”essential act of justice” and partially attributing it to his administration’s policies. However,this victory presents a complex dilemma for his presidency: How can the U.S. build relationships with the newly empowered rebel forces in Syria, even though they have been labeled as terrorists?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the dominant rebel faction behind Assad’s toppling, was once affiliated with Al Qaeda. Even though they severed ties years ago, the U.S. government still designates them as a terrorist organization.
Recently, the U.S. has communicated with rebel groups through Turkish intermediaries, mainly cautioning them against collaborating with militants from the Islamic State. According to U.S. and Turkish officials briefed on these exchanges, the rebel groups assured them that the Islamic State would not be part of their movement.
Now, Biden and his advisors are grappling with the extent to which they should directly engage with these rebel groups, as revealed by the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
U.S. intelligence analysts and policymakers are meticulously evaluating whether these groups have undergone meaningful transformations or are willing to modify their behavior to address U.S. and allied concerns regarding terrorist connections.
During a televised address from the White House, Biden acknowledged both the cautious optimism and lingering uncertainty surrounding the new power dynamics in Syria. He celebrated the end of the Assad dynasty’s half-century grip on syria while cautiously approaching the implications of the rebel takeover.
Interview with Middle East Policy Expert Dr. Samira Khaled on the Implications of Assad’s Downfall in Syria
Time.news Editor: Thank you for joining us, Dr.Khaled. President Biden recently hailed the toppling of Bashar al-Assad as an “essential act of justice,” but this victory raises complex questions for U.S. foreign policy. What are the immediate implications of this change in leadership for the Syrian conflict?
Dr. Samira Khaled: Thank you for having me. The immediate implications are notable. The fall of Assad means a shift in power dynamics within Syria, creating opportunities for new governance structures. However, it also presents a dilemma for the U.S. Since the dominant rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has a complicated past with connections to Al Qaeda, this complicates direct engagement. The U.S. needs to navigate this carefully to avoid legitimizing groups with a history of terrorism.
Time.news Editor: You mentioned Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s complicated history. Can you explain the challenges the U.S. faces in building relationships with them, given their classification as a terrorist institution?
Dr. Samira Khaled: Absolutely. The U.S. government still designates Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization, despite their severed ties with Al Qaeda. This designation creates a significant hurdle for establishing formal diplomatic relations. Though, the U.S. has been using Turkish intermediaries to communicate. It’s vital to assess whether these groups have reformed or are willing to change their behavior to align with U.S. interests and mitigate terrorism risks.
Time.news Editor: Considering recent U.S. communications with rebel groups, what strategies might the Biden governance consider to engage these factions effectively?
Dr. Samira Khaled: The biden administration should consider a multi-faceted approach. First, continued dialogue through intermediaries like Turkey is essential to build trust. Second, the U.S. should encourage these groups to publicly distance themselves from any remaining extremist affiliations, thereby allowing for a gradual reevaluation of their terrorist status.Lastly,supporting moderate factions within the rebel groups can definitely help foster a more stable political landscape in Syria.
Time.news Editor: President Biden’s address acknowledged both optimism and uncertainty. How should the U.S. balance these feelings as it forges a new path in Syria?
Dr. Samira Khaled: Balancing optimism with caution is crucial.The U.S. must remain hopeful about the potential for positive change but should also prepare for setbacks. This means maintaining a keen awareness of the volatile landscape and the risks of engaging with groups that may pivot back to extremist actions. A cautious yet proactive policy will be essential to ensure that any new alliances contribute to a stable and peaceful Syria.
Time.news Editor: Lastly, what practical advice would you offer to policymakers navigating these complex dynamics in Syria right now?
Dr. Samira Khaled: Policymakers should prioritize data-sharing and intelligence assessments regarding the intentions and behaviors of these rebel groups. Building alliances with other regional powers, such as Turkey and Jordan, can also help bolster security and strategy. It’s imperative for any engagement to include robust preconditions regarding counterterrorism measures to mitigate risks associated with past affiliations of these factions.
Time.news Editor: Thank you,Dr.Khaled, for your insightful analysis. As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, your expertise on navigating these complex relationships is invaluable.
Dr. Samira khaled: Thank you for having me. I look forward to seeing how these developments unfold and hope for a positive outcome for the people of Syria.