“Nothing is written! Nothing is won! » Since his declaration of candidacy, Emmanuel Macron has not ceased to alert his troops to the risk of demobilization of voters during the presidential election. Repeated in all tones, the warning is intended to be strong. No, the presidential election would not already be “folded”he says on March 4 in a video published by his campaign team. “If at every second, we consider that confidence is acquired and that we do not have to question ourselves and go get it, at that moment, we lose”, he warns. A week later, again. “The big risk is that people think it’s done. If they think so, we’ve lost.”, he insists, in a new promotional video. Before assuring, in front of the elected officials who support him, gathered at his HQ on March 11, that he does not believe “no numbers”. Reference to the polls, which present him as the big favorite in the election of April 10 and 24.
Already a winner of the presidential election for many months, the candidate president has recorded an increase in voting intentions in his favor since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Now credited with more than 30% in the first round in a series of polls and given the winner in the second round in all cases, he has widened the gap with his opponents in proportions not seen since the start of the five-year term. The latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for The world, published on March 18, gives it to 29%, very far ahead of its pursuer, the candidate of the National Rally (RN) Marine Le Pen (16%). In the second round, he was the clear winner (59% for him against 41% for her). Enough to feed the idea of a match already played in advance. 72% of French people are thus convinced that Emmanuel Macron will be re-elected for a second five-year term. Only 13% imagine Marine Le Pen at the Elysée.
If this theoretical domination reassures the macronists, however, there is no question of declaring victory too soon. “We have seen many in the past who were the big winners of the election before, but who were not in the second round! », launched the tenant of the Elysée, on March 9, to the parliamentarians of the majority, in order to urge them to campaign, relentlessly. No question of suffering the same fate as Edouard Balladur or Alain Juppé, all given the winner of the presidential election in the polls, before finally collapsing at the polls.
A potential hazard
If a scattering of votes constitutes a major danger, which Lionel Jospin suffered for example in 2002, Mr. Macron’s main fear remains that some of the voters who have planned to slip a ballot into the ballot box in his favor do not take the trouble of coming to vote, on the grounds that he would not need it to win. “Around you, you may have people who prefer to go fishing”, he was alarmed in front of the elected representatives of the majority, on March 9. Before releasing: “Demobilization is the worst risk. » A potential danger, insofar as the abstention is evaluated at more than 30%. What would constitute “a record for a presidential election, when it was only 22% in 2017”recalls Brice Teinturier, CEO of Ipsos.
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