Biological age can predict life expectancy

by time news

“Having a biological age greater than the chronological one implies a greater risk of dying at an early age,” explains Alberto Palloni, a CSIC researcher at the Institute of Economy, Geography and Demography. According to Palloni, “the calculation of the biological age is relatively easy because information that is routinely obtained is used: height, weight, blood pressure and biochemical blood measurements, such as glucose or cholesterol. This could help early diagnosis of physiological deterioration and anticipate potential health problems and other underlying health conditions.” The work, which is published in the journal «PNAS Nexus».

The research proposes two ways of estimation: dependent estimation and non-dependent estimation. In both cases, the biological deterioration is obtained through a structural equation model (a multivariate statistical analysis technique) and is associated with additional information. “In the dependent estimation, biological deterioration is associated with the risk of dying, so that the resulting biological age is a very precise indicator of premature death. This form of estimation makes it possible to associate biological deterioration not only with the risk of dying but also with other indicators of future disease, for example, the risk of having a disability or cardiovascular disease. For its part, in the non-dependent estimation, biological deterioration is associated with chronological age to estimate biological age, it does not depend on additional information”, points out the CSIC researcher.

In the work, in which, in addition to the CSIC, scientists from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) and the University of Wisconsin participate, the largest health database in the United States, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveywhich includes information on 9,389 men and women between the ages of 30 and 75.

These individuals were interviewed between 1988 and 1994 and during those years different health measures were taken. In addition, they were followed up until December 2015 to find out how many of them had died.

Among women, the risk of dying increases 129% for each year of biological age greater than chronological age

“The data analyzed suggest that physiological deterioration progresses more rapidly among women, people with less education, and people of Mexican origin and non-Hispanic Afro-descendants in the United States. That is, the most disadvantaged individuals have a higher biological age and, therefore, an accelerated aging”, comments Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, professor in the Department of Community Health Sciences at UCLA. Among women, for example, the risk of dying increases 129% for every year of biological age greater than chronological age. For men, the risk is somewhat lower, about 124%.

The results, which have been obtained within the framework of the ERC Advanced Grant ECHO project, led by the CSIC researcher, provide relevant information on life expectancy after 65 years. “From that age, when the biological age exceeds the chronological age by one year, it implies a reduction in life expectancy of around two years. If the biological age is five years older, the decrease is even greater, living on average nine years younger. The surprising thing has been to verify how small increases in biological age with respect to chronological age translate into a greater risk of dying”, says Beltrán-Sánchez.

Biological age indicators are already beginning to be used in the clinical area. “Those that use biological information such as the one we propose and epigenetic indicators have been implemented as alternative measures of the biological age of people. These indicators, which are often called biological clocks, are used as measures of the possible physiological deterioration that the patient has accumulated and would be related to the development of future diseases”, says Palloni.

Although the study does not include epigenetic indicators in the estimation of biological age, the authors indicate that their method has the potential to add such information and thus achieve greater prediction accuracy.

You may also like

Leave a Comment