Bitcoin‘s uptrend remains strong, with analysts still targeting $164,000.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Trajectory Continues
A long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin persists, with recent data suggesting its uptrend is intact and a target of $164,000 is still achievable.
- Bitcoin’s upward trend shows no signs of stopping, with a $164,000 target in sight.
- A long-term trading signal to buy Bitcoin, initiated on March 31, 2023, at $28,476, remains active.
- Bitcoin reached a recent all-time high of $124,532 on August 14.
- Technical indicators, including Elliott Wave counts and the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, support the bullish sentiment.
- Historical cycles suggest that Bitcoin has spent more time consolidating than rallying, indicating potential for further upward movement.
For those tracking its journey, a consistently bullish stance on Bitcoin has been maintained since at least mid-September 2023, when it was trading around $26,000. The reasoning has often pointed to the four distinct phases of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. The forecast for 2024 and beyond anticipated that Bitcoin, currently in a “Mid Bull” phase, was poised for a significant bull run, potentially reaching $100,000 to $200,000-plus by the end of 2025.
Figure 1. Bitcoin’s monthly price chart with our preferred EW count, four-phases cycle, and trading system signals.
The market has since seen Bitcoin hit a latest all-time high of $124,532 on August 14. While this is encouraging, Fibonacci extensions for the red wave five (W-v) indicate an ideal target zone of $164,000 to $216,000 has not yet been reached. With over three months remaining before the current cycle is considered complete, there is still room for growth.
Further reinforcing the positive outlook, a long-term trading alert signaled a buy for Bitcoin on March 31, 2023, with an entry price of $28,476. This signal remains active, with no sell signal yet issued. Historically, sell signals, like those seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, have marked the end of previous runs.
Bitcoin’s Persistent Uptrend
Beyond the wave counts and cycle analysis, Bitcoin has shown a consistent uptrend since its bottom in late 2022. This is further supported by the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. Each time the OBV has broken above its downtrend line, a new uptrend has commenced, as indicated by green arrows. A recent move above this line, marked by a pink arrow, suggests this pattern is continuing.
Figure 2. Bitcoin’s uptrend since late 2022
An examination of Bitcoin’s price history reveals significant periods of sideways movement (black squares) and rallies (green squares). Approximately 28 months have been spent in consolidation patterns, compared to about six months of rallying. This suggests a “you snooze, you lose” mentality is beneficial, and investors should avoid being discouraged by periods of low volatility.
Red, down-pointing arrows in historical charts often highlight false breakouts following consolidations. While a false breakout occurred on August 14, the only significant dip this year, from February to March, Bitcoin has maintained its uptrend channel. It has subsequently rallied to new all-time highs. Therefore, adhering to the trend, the four-year cycle, Elliott Wave patterns, and the long-term trading system signals is advised, as none have indicated a market top.
If a peak were to occur on December 1, the blue trend channel would place Bitcoin around $149,300. This level is still 28% above current prices, aligning closely with the $164,000 target.
