In crypto markets, especially Bitcoin, a sign of disruption has emerged which confirms important aspects from a cyclical point of view. The analysis focuses on various elements: short-term cyclical and technical analysis, the most relevant recent news and expected macroeconomic data.
A significant signal shows a conformity to previous Bitcoin cyclesindicating a positive trend in the medium term, although it may seem the opposite.
New macro data points to a clear direction
Significant macroeconomic data is expected this week, including the Europe’s inflation rate expected to decline for the first time below the 2% target. Europe is in a more critical economic situation than the United States, with more evident signs of recession, which led to a reduction in interest rates.
In the coming months, it will be important to monitor recession indicators, such as the ISM indices and the unemployment ratewhich will be released on October 4 in the United States. An increase in unemployment could also push the US to consider further interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin ETF: we are in this phase of the cycle, have you noticed?
Bitcoin ETFs raised an additional billion last week, signaling a return of interest and increased buying. Currently, net flows into Bitcoin ETFs are impressive, reaching 18 billion in approximately 6-9 months from their launch.
This data confirms the success of these financial products, unlike those on Ethereum which recorded lower performance.
The current upward trend in net flows could push Bitcoin to surpass its all-time highs if the trend continues. ETFs are considered a long-term investment, with a time horizon of 5-10 years, rather than short-term trading tools.
The current phase, therefore, represents a period of initial accumulation for investors with a long-term view, rather than a speculative selling phase.
Unlike futures, which are used for short-term and leveraged trades, ETFs aim to build a stable and long-lasting position over time.
Accumulation theory suggests that you are in the early stage of an investment in Bitcoin, which leaves room for possible bullish momentum in the near futureif no unexpected events or “black swans” occur that could alter current market dynamics.
FTX delays refunds, but FTT soars 100%
The FTT token saw a 100% increase, despite FTX postponing refunds to creditors. After the exchange’s failure in November 2022, the token’s recent rise appears to be linked to speculative movementscharacterized by strong fluctuations and possible market manipulations.
In the past week, FTT soared 125% in short order, with surge attributable to leaks or rumors that some of FTX’s technology may be used again in the future.
Despite the delay in refunds, interest around the token has increased, perhaps fueled by expectations that the exchange can be relaunched, thanks to possible political interventions or to the creation of a new trading platform with similar characteristics.
The volatility of the FTT token continues to be high, a sign that the market is reacting to these rumors, generating an intense speculative phase.
Will CZ bring crypto back to the golden age?
CZ was released from prisonand with his return we expect a resumption of the operational mechanisms present before his arrest, probably also influenced by the events linked to FTX.
There could be a return of greater inclusion for small investors and a reevaluation of some typical blockchain dynamics which CZ had supported in the past.
Supporters of BNB, Binance’s token, are waiting for developments, as the price has remained stable. It is likely that CZ is now more cautious in its communication and strategies, taking inspiration from recent events.
Bitcoin changes course after 6 months
Bitcoin cyclical analysis highlights a major upward break in the triangle that was forming, signaling a potential bullish trend. Furthermore, Bitcoin surpassed the resistance of 64,500 and 65,000 dollars, reaching $65,100 on BitStamp, the maximum value of the bullish swing on August 25th.
This movement indicates a change in the short-term trend, which now becomes bullish. The increase invalidated the previous bearish trend formed between the recent lows and highs.
The relevance of the September minimum compared to that of August strengthens the hypothesis that the new trend is starting from that point, with the possibility of further positive developments to be analyzed in the future.
The most important news on Bitcoin in recent months
Bitcoin’s recent breakout, although timid, scores with high probability the beginning of a new annual cyclewhich could have started in August or September according to cyclical analysis. This new cycle is different from the previous ones and could lead Bitcoin to surpass its all-time highs.
There is the possibility of a cyclical imperfection, defined as “lingua di Bayer” which often occurs at the end of relevant annual cycles, but the current movement seems to indicate a classic bullish monthlyprobably belonging to the first or second monthly of the new annual cycle.
With the confirmation of the start of the cycle, there are no more constraints for Bitcoin to achieve further increases before the end of the annual cycle, and this opens up the possibility of a break from the historic highs.
Furthermore, we are in the fourth quarter, historically the most explosive for Bitcoin, and the context is also supported by other factors such as the upcoming American elections. However, you need to be carefulsince an unexpected event, such as a “black swan” could alter the scenario.
The perfect storm on Bitcoin is coming
From a cyclical point of view, Bitcoin has met expectations perfectly since the beginning of 2024following the expected long cycles. The goal appears to be to test and surpass all-time highs in the last quarter of 2024, to conclude the bull run that began in 2022.
However, it is still early to confirm this hypothesis, since the current monthly cycle has not been completed and all-time highs have not yet been broken. The final confirmation will only come when Bitcoin enters price discovery between 76,000 and 80,000 dollars. Although the new annual cycle has begun, it remains to be seen whether it will have the strength necessary to reach these levels.
In the short term, Bitcoin is in a corrective phase 24 days into the monthly cycle and may attempt to close itor quickly. Having not yet seen a central bottom of the monthly cycle, it is likely that a three-phase cycle is developing.
Once this correction is complete, we await the start of a new monthly cycle which could push the price above the resistance level between $66,000 and $68,000. To confirm the formation of a stable bullish trend, it is necessary for Bitcoin to create a solid and non-violatable minimum from which to start the next bullish phase.
Everything seems to be going according to plan, but it is always necessary to consider possible unexpected events. Operationally, who followed technical analysis could have exploited the breakout of the previous swing and the descending trendline as entry points for long positions.