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Bitcoin’s 2025 Performance Disappoints, Leaving investors Divided on 2026 Outlook
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Despite high expectations at the start of 2025, Bitcoin concluded the year down approximately 6 percent, a stark contrast to predictions of a strong rally fueled by past market cycles. The cryptocurrency did briefly reach a new high of around $126,000, but considerable selling pressure in the final quarter of the year erased those gains, leaving investors reassessing thier strategies.
The outcome has created a split in market sentiment, with some anticipating a rebound in 2026 while others foresee continued weakness. The conventional “four-year cycle” narrative – the belief in a major Bitcoin rally following each halving event – failed to materialize as expected in 2025. Historically,halvings in 2013,2017,and 2021 correlated with price surges as reduced supply drove values higher. Though, in 2025, the impact of the halving appeared diminished and delayed.
A key factor contributing to this shift is the evolving market structure. The increasing presence of large institutional investors, particularly through Exchange traded Funds (ETFs), is now more closely tied to broader global economic and financial conditions. A global enhancement in risk appetite is likely to drive renewed investment into crypto assets, whereas a weakening global sentiment could prolong any potential recovery.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
The overall technical picture for Bitcoin reveals a shift to a phase characterized by unsuccessful recovery attempts and persistent selling pressure following its peak in the final quarter of 2025. Both daily and weekly charts indicate that the price has fallen below previous support levels, with key moving averages trending downward, signaling continued bearish momentum in the short to medium term.
Attention is now focused on two key price levels that will likely define Bitcoin’s next move.
$88,000-$85,000 Support Zone
On the daily chart, the accelerated decline following the peak highlighted the importance of key support levels. The $85,000 to $88,000 range has twice served as a support base. As long as this zone holds, selling pressure may persist, but triggering a meaningful further selloff will become more challenging.
However, upside momentum remains weak. Buying attempts have been limited by low volume and consistently stall at resistance levels. Initial resistance is found near $91,000,followed by $94,700. Even surpassing these levels, the $100,000 to $102,000 zone – a historically significant level – could cap further gains. Furthermore, daily prices remain below the short-term 8-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting that recent rebounds are likely short-term reactions rather than a sustained recovery. the Stochastic RSI is nearing overbought territory while price action remains sideways, indicating some short-term buying interest but also raising the risk of exhaustion near resistance. Until the $91,000 to $94,700 range is decisively broken, upside momentum is expected to remain constrained.
$99,000-$102,000 Resistance Zone
The weekly chart shows Bitcoin falling below its rising channel and trading below short-term averages after the November breakout, weakening the medium-term uptrend. However, weekly closes above $82,000 suggest a consolidation phase rather than a sharp decline.
A stronger rebound on the weekly timeframe requires Bitcoin to surpass $99,250, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and a key resistance point identified on the daily chart. A clear break above this level could pave the way toward the $110,000 area, with the previous peak zone near $123,000 potentially becoming a target based on weekly closes.
On the downside, the $88,000 area has provided support during recent low-volume trading. A breach of this level could lead to a test of the $82,000 to $85,000 range, followed by the $74,000 to $78,000 area. A decline below this region could intensify selling pressure and push Bitcoin back toward support levels below $70,000.
maintaining the $88,000 to $85,000 support zone offers the potential for a short-term recovery and reactive price movements. A move above the $99,000 to $
