2024-04-13 17:52:22
[4·10 총선] ‘Pro-Yoon, Won Hee-ryong, Gobae, and Han Dong-hoon resign… Oh Se-hoon ‘Invisible score’
As the ‘regime judgment theory’ took hold in the April 10 general elections, an unprecedented ‘Yeo Sogeo (與小巨野)’ phase unfolded (see table). The People Power Party and its proportional satellite party, People’s Future, suffered a crushing defeat, winning 108 seats, and Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon resigned, taking responsibility for the election defeat. As the possibility of President Yoon Seok-yeol becoming an early lame duck is raised, there are speculations that the ruling party may be reorganized into the next presidential election structure. So, what kind of report card did the ruling party leaders, who are classified as next presidential candidates, accept in this general election?
● Biggest upset Lee Jun-seok
Overall, the ‘pro-Yoon (pro-Yun Seok-yeol) candidates’ who are close to President Yoon, such as Han Dong-hoon and Won Hee-ryong, showed poor results, while the ‘non-Yoon (non-Yoon Seok-yeol) candidates’ who were distant from President Yoon achieved easy wins, and appear to have been resurrected as presidential candidates. Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who as mayor of Seoul had no choice but to distance himself from President Yoon and the general election, is also assessed to have succeeded in scoring an invisible goal.
People Power Party President-elect Ahn Cheol-soo is expected to increase his position within the party as he defeated his ‘strong opponent’, Democratic Party candidate Lee Gwang-jae. Like President-elect Na Kyung-won, President-elect Ahn also faced pressure from the pro-Yoon faction during the March 8 convention last year, and eventually gave up. Since then, he has appeared to be at loggerheads with Yongsan on the issue of increasing the number of medical schools, advocating for ‘postponement and gradual increase in numbers’. This move seems to have served as an added point as the wind of criticism of the regime was strong throughout this general election. In a media interview immediately after being elected, he said, “In the end, it is a judgment in the nature of a mid-term evaluation of the government,” and “It showed that I am not very satisfied with what the government has done so far.”
People Power Party President-elect Na Kyung-won also succeeded in making a comeback in this election. He announced his intention to run for party leadership ahead of the March 8 National Convention last year, but was unable to even run due to strong opposition from pro-Yoon Gye and the president’s office. At that time, about 50 newly-elected members of the People Power Party even staged a skit in which they held a public protest and criticized former lawmaker Na, who was their senior at the presidential election. As President-elect Na recorded 54.01% of the votes in Dongjak-eul, Seoul, far ahead of candidate Ryu Sam-young (45.98%), a talent recruited by the Democratic Party, his position within the party is expected to increase. Among the People Power Party candidates, only three (Kwon Young-se, Jo Jeong-hoon, and Na Kyung-won) succeeded in recapturing the Han River Belt, and President-elect Na is one of them.
Lee Jun-seok, the leader of the biggest upset in this general election, the New Reform Party’s president-elect, is a representative ‘non-Yun candidate’ who was stripped of his representative position after having a conflict with President Yoon in the early days of the current administration. He ran in Hwaseong-eul, Gyeonggi Province, which has the youngest voting age group, and defeated Democratic Party candidate Gong Young-woon (39.73%) with 42.41% of the votes. Just a month ago, President-elect Lee’s approval rating gap with Candidate Gong was more than 20% points. Considering that the People Power Party candidate Han Jeong-min received 17.85% of the votes in the same constituency, and that the votes were dispersed, the meaning of President-elect Lee’s victory becomes greater. President-elect Lee said on April 11, “I will engage in politics by pointing out the mistakes of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration through legislative activities at a different level.”
President-elect Lee served as the representative of the People Power Party and led both the 2022 presidential election and local elections to victory, but after engaging in a difficult power struggle with the so-called Yoon Haek-kwan (a key official of President Yoon Seok-yeol), he was suspended from membership due to the ‘sexual entertainment controversy’. He was stripped of his position as representative. At the end of the general election, President-elect Lee’s parents appeared at a campaign rally. His mother, Kim Hyang-ja, shed tears as she said, “I thought if I said, ‘It’s hard,’ in front of my son, who was struggling, he would break down, so I cooked him a meal as if nothing had happened, and then I left the house and cried alone in the apartment parking lot for three hours.”
Experts emphasized that the biggest driving force in this general election was the theory of judging the regime, but analyzed that personal competitiveness also played a significant role in the election of these candidates. Park Dong-won, CEO of Polycom, said, “As the theory of judging the regime was very influential, the People Power Party elected people mainly in regions where the theory of character prevailed.”
It is expected that personnel classified as pro-Yoon faction will inevitably take a hit. Immediately, former emergency committee chairman Han Dong-hoon announced on April 11, “I take full responsibility for the election results and step down from my position as emergency committee chairman.” Regarding this, some say that the head of the emergency committee, who is new to politics, has not been able to completely shake off the negative influence of his image as a ‘former prosecutor’ and ‘President Yoon’s representative’. Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyo criticized him, saying, “There are still prosecutors called ‘Gonzo’ left.” Lee Sang-don, professor emeritus at Chung-Ang University, also said, “It would not have been easy to achieve better results in the position of former emergency committee chairman,” but added, “Since he lost the election and did not enter the National Assembly through proportional representation, a reduction in his position is expected to be inevitable.”
● Oh Se-hoon becomes complicated
Candidate Won Hee-ryong, who served as Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport during the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, was also defeated by Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myeong and must seek a comeback outside the National Assembly. He received 45.45% of the vote in Gyeyang-eul, Incheon, which is not much different from the vote rate (44.75%) obtained by People Power Party candidate Hyung-seon Yoon, who ran against Representative Lee during the 2022 by-election.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is evaluated as having avoided ‘anger’ as he was not directly involved in the general election. However, the analysis is that it is not without a blow as his close associates, including People Power Party candidate Oh Shin-hwan, have failed to run, and his report card in Seoul, his main stage, is not good. Regarding the results of this general election on April 11, Mayor Oh stated, “I fully feel responsible for not being able to win the trust and love of the people.”
<이 기사는 Weekly Donga No. 1435It was published in >
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2024-04-13 17:52:22