A think tank predicts a potential “blue wave” could secure 122 parliamentary seats for Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the next general election (GE16), contingent on cooperation between Malay-Muslim parties and voter dynamics in key states.
The Ilham Centre, a think tank, has projected that the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance could capture up to 122 parliamentary seats in the next general election (GE16), creating a majority that would position them to form the next government. This forecast, based on voting patterns observed in Negeri Sembilan spreading across the nation, hinges on the ability of BN and PN to maintain unity and secure support from Malay-Muslim voters, who constitute over 51% of the electorate in 138 peninsula seats. The projection was made by Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar, who emphasized that the alliance’s success depends on grassroots cooperation between Umno and PAS to win seats previously held by Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Projected Blue Wave and Seat Allocations
Hisommudin Bakar highlighted that the 122-seat target would exceed the 112 required for a simple majority in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat. This could be achieved if BN and PN candidates gain traction in marginal constituencies where PH previously won, particularly in semi-urban and multi-racial areas. It can translate into victories in many marginal seats that PH previously won,
he said, adding that these seats are critical battlegrounds where the three main coalitions—PH, BN, and PN—will field candidates. The think tank’s analysis also noted that Malay voters make up at least 65% of the electorate in 86 peninsula seats, but these are not all in the Malay heartland. They include constituencies in towns and in areas at the fringes of the cities,
Hisommudin explained, noting that the outcome in these seats could “go either way.”
The projection aligns with recent state election results in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, where PN and BN candidates saw gains. The think tank’s analysis suggests that if BN and PN can consolidate their support in these areas, they could replicate the “blue wave” across the peninsula. However, the alliance’s ability to maintain this momentum depends on resolving internal disputes and ensuring that candidates are fielded in competitive seats.
Challenges in Seat Division and Internal Dynamics
Despite the optimistic projection, challenges remain in dividing seats between BN and PN, particularly in states like Pahang, Perak, and Selangor, where both alliances have strong interests. Francis Hutchinson, a senior fellow with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that the alliance has only been tested in states where agreements were easier, such as Johor and Negeri Sembilan where PAS is weak. The biggest test will be how BN and PN divide the seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor,
he said, adding that urban Malays, who are more likely to support BN-PN, may not be enough to sway outcomes in mixed or urban seats where non-Malay voters play a decisive role.
BN and PN’s ability to attract non-Malay voters is further complicated by internal tensions. Meanwhile, Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin stressed the importance of compromise in seat allocations to sustain the “blue wave.” Jika kita benar-benar bersama, kita perlu melihat kepada ‘gelombang biru’ yang bermula di Johor dan diteruskan di Negeri Sembilan,
he said, emphasizing that cooperation is essential to maintaining momentum.
Strategic Importance of Key States and Voter Dynamics
The outcome of GE16 will largely depend on voter dynamics in key states like Johor, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka, where the “blue wave” has already gained traction. In Melaka, BN’s 21 current seats are a priority, with leaders like Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi emphasizing the need to retain them. However, Hamzah Zainudin warned that maintaining this momentum requires balancing the ambitions of all parties within the alliance. Insya-ALLAH, apabila menyentuh mengenai kehendak setiap parti, sudah tentu semua orang mahukan lebih banyak kerusi,
he said, but added that broader considerations must guide negotiations. Tetapi apabila kita melihat gambaran yang lebih besar, ia bukan hanya mengenai Melaka. Kita juga perlu mengambil kira keadaan di negeri-negeri lain.
The think tank’s analysis also highlighted the role of non-Malay voters, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas where PH has traditionally held sway. Hutchinson noted that voter turnout among non-Malays could be a deciding factor in these seats, as BN-PN’s appeal may be limited in areas where non-Malay communities remain loyal to PH. In these seats, the voter turnout, especially among non-Malays, would be a determining factor,
he said, underscoring the complexity of the electoral landscape.
As the election approaches, the success of the BN-PN alliance will hinge on its ability to navigate these challenges. While the Ilham Centre’s projection offers a roadmap for a potential majority, the alliance’s internal cohesion and strategic seat allocations will ultimately determine whether the “blue wave” becomes a reality.
