opinions expresses the views of the author.
Yesterday, the military in Bolivia tried a coup in opposition to the democratically elected president, Luis Arce. The coup try was led by Basic Juan Jose Zuniga, who had been sacked as protection chief the day earlier than.
Nonetheless, the coup try lasted just a few hours. President Arce appointed a brand new protection chief and ordered the army again to their army base. An order they adopted.
Tensions between the army and the federal government have elevated over the previous week as a result of disagreements over whether or not former president Evo Morales can stand in subsequent yr’s presidential election. Because of this disagreement, Basic Zuniga threatened to arrest Evo Morales for treason in opposition to the structure if he turned president.
The subsequent day he was sacked as head of defence.
This can be a battle between Morales and the army that has existed since 2019 when Evo Morales ran for a brand new presidential time period, even if he couldn’t proceed as president in accordance with the structure. Morales gained the election, but it surely was annulled.
In 2020, new elections had been held and the present president of Bolivia, Arce, was elected. He comes from the identical political social gathering as Evo Morales and has been finance minister for 2 durations.
Jørn Sund-Henriksen
Jørn Sund-Henriksen was an election observer in Kyiv in the course of the Orange Revolution in 2004 and served within the Command of the Coast Guard. He has labored with impartial intelligence (OSINT) for over 10 years in varied conflicts and is the chief of the Norwegian-Ukrainian Affiliation of Mates. His work relies on open supply analysis, so it’s an accumulation and evaluation of at the moment accessible info, with the related risks of incorrect sources.
World file for the variety of coups
Bolivia is the unofficial world champion within the variety of cups in historical past with 190. So this isn’t unknown territory for the Bolivians. Bolivia has an fascinating historical past the place their army misplaced virtually each struggle they participated in.
I spent a number of months in La Paz in 2010, after which I used to be very involved in a sq. within the metropolis devoted to the Bolivian Navy. Though they’re a landlocked nation, they’ve saved their navy since they’re attempting to regain the coast they misplaced in a struggle with Chile on the finish of the nineteenth century.
The one common “success” that they had was once they took energy in their very own nation. On the similar time, I want to level out that the earlier army coup was way back to 1980 and the earlier main coup try was in 1984.
Bolivia is a poor nation with a historical past of social unrest. Throughout the Nineties and 2000s there was repeated unrest because of the privatization of assorted authorities providers main to cost hikes. For instance for water. Regardless of occasional unrest, the final growth over time has been optimistic for Bolivia. This was primarily the case with the Bolivian democracy.
There have been optimistic developments relating to political freedoms, freedom of the press and the conduct of elections. However the Bolivian democracy was challenged when Morales didn’t respect the structure in 2019. Nonetheless, he resigned from protests and the democracy was held.
Additionally learn: Coup basic arrested in Bolivia – troopers have retreated
Was it an tried coup?
Now Morales needs to give up. Even supposing the Supreme Court docket dominated in October that he can not stand, he does it anyway. That is what Basic Zuniga responded to and warned in opposition to. He mentioned in the course of the coup try that democracy needed to be ensured in order that nobody may rule the nation for a few years.
Zuniga will most likely declare that it was not an tried coup, however, quite the opposite, that they needed to maintain democracy. However now armored autos are driving down the gate of the presidential palace, it’s clearly an tried coup. Bolivian democracy gained once more, because the army adopted orders from the president to return to their base.
Will probably be fascinating to see how this develops additional. President Arce seems to be strengthened after defeating the coup try. On the similar time, it was not Basic Zuniga who needed to cease, however Arce’s greatest rival earlier than subsequent yr’s election, Evo Morales.
Since they’re in the identical social gathering, in actuality the social gathering’s nomination election will most certainly determine who wins the election in 2025. Morales may be very fashionable, however Arce has the regulation on his facet. As well as, he has now defeated a coup try.
Extra democracy wanted
We actually have our fingers crossed that the Bolivians come to their toes on this course of. We’d like Bolivia within the ranks of democracy. Democracy as a type of authorities is below strain internationally.
When Jette Christensen visited «Ukraine» in December 2023, she mentioned that solely 13 % of the world’s inhabitants lives in a democracy. When she launched the ebook “Demokratiet, det er oss” in April this yr, the quantity fell to eight %.
Additionally learn: Roper Russia warning: – We’ve nothing to provide
Regardless of many elections going down in 2024, the development goes within the improper path. There are lots of nations the place democracy has been curtailed to make sure that the appropriate candidate is given a say within the “election”.
Two actors who’re actually working to weaken democracies internationally are Russia and China. Each are involved in as little democracy as attainable, since they see democracy as the most important risk.
Many coups and conflicts have each inside and exterior elements and influences. For instance, the coup in Mali and the border battle between Venezuela and Guyana. Putin clearly had one thing to do with that. Right here in Bolivia, nevertheless, it seems to be purely an inside political battle.
A coup try is clearly not an excellent signal. However the folks rallied and the army adopted the orders of their new commander. To date, democracy has prevailed in Bolivia.