From Brasilia
What will be of the future of Jair Bolsonaro y Donald Trump?. Part of the fate of America’s far-right leaders begins to play out this week.
Jewelry and watches
On Wednesday, in Brasilia, the former captain will appear before the Federal Police, which is investigating why he appropriated jewels valued at several million dollars that Saudi Arabia gave to the Brazilian state and whiche he hid in a farm belonging to the former Formula 1 world champion, Nelson Piquet. The scandal of the jewels, watches for him and diamond necklaces for his young wife Michelle, wreaked havoc on the image of the right-wing cacique.
In the Workers’ Party, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva they suspect that the jewels are the end of a skein of corruption. They would be the bribe given by the Arabs who paid only 1.8 billion dollars for a Brazilian oil refinery whose market value is 3 billion.
“There will be deaths”
Next Tuesday, one day before Bolsonaro’s appointment with the police, in New York, Trump will appear before the Prosecutor’s Office for having bought the silence of a porn actress, Stormy Danielsabout a relationship they had two decades ago. The tycoon, in the race for a new mandate, incited a revolt of his supporters against Justice. “There will be deaths” as a result of the process, Daniels declared, to the British newspaper The Timesassuring that she is not afraid of the violent 78-year-old redheaded former president, thirty-four years older than her.
Will Bolsonaro be arrested? Those who are familiar with Bolsonaro’s privacy speak of his fear of going to jail for one of the sixteen cases heard in various forums, including the Federal Supreme Court. He himself admitted that he could end up behind bars in an interview he gave to the American newspaper The Wall Street Jornal during his stay of almost three months in Orlando, United States, which began on December 30, two days before Lula’s inauguration, to whom he refused to hand over the baton of command.
In any case that Bolsonaro will be arrested for this or any of the other ongoing processes does not seem likely in the short term. Supreme Court judges acknowledged fearing an uprising of ultra militants if their leader were arrested. They remember that on January 8, thousands of Bolsonaristas invaded the palaces of the Presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court demanding the deposition of Lula. The uprising imitated the seizure of the Trumpist Capitol in 2021. It seems more likely that the Superior Electoral Tribunal will declare Bolsonaro ineligible for the 2026 presidential elections for the crimes committed in the October elections, when he tried to sabotage the vote.
serious and upset
Upon returning to Brasilia, on the morning of last Thursdayhe did not look exultantsuch as when he called for a coup in front of tens of thousands of followers in events held last year in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro.
On the contrary, he looked serious, at times with a smile of commitment and obviously upset when he had to go through customs controls following the routine of any passenger. Without the prerogatives that he and the military who illegally introduced the jewels during his government enjoyed.
coup of 1964
One of the reasons taken into account by Bolsonaro when deciding that his return to Brazil on March 30 would be to be present on the anniversary of the coup that overthrew President Joao Goulart on March 31, 1964. During the four years of his civil-military government, he instituted the commemoration in the headquarters of the seditious movement that established the dictatorship that prevailed until 1985, succeeded by a civilian government, of President Jose Sarneysupervised by the generals.
With Lula, the celebration of the dictatorship was shelved and the new head of the Army, General Tomas Paiva he informally informed the military on duty that they would be penalized if they made a pronouncement on the subject.
In an open provocation to the democratic government the retired general, Walter Sousa Braga Netopublished a note on Friday extolling Goulart’s deposition and the 1964 deed against communism. Hours before disclosing that side, Braga Neto had met with his political boss, Bolsonaro, at the headquarters of the Liberal Party, in the center of Brasilia.
military and civilian
By claiming responsibility for the coup through a trusted man such as Braga Neto, Bolsonaro sent a signal to the military corporation where he continues to enjoy popularity. It is convenient to remember that The former head of the Army, General Julio César de Arruda, was dismissed by Lula due to his complicity in the January 8 uprising.
Endorsing his influence among the military may be easier for him than guaranteeing behind him the support of the 58 million citizens who voted for him in October, when Lula defeated him by barely two million votes.
family and power
Of the many legends built around the former president, one speaks of his attachment to Christian customs and the traditional family. Through an active penetration of social networks, an idyllic account of the Bolsonaros was invented, as if they were a tropical version of the television series The Ingalls Family, about puritanical North American pioneers of the nineteenth century.
In one of the meetings with evangelicals in Orlando last month, the former president followed that script by closing his sermon with the motto “God, Country, Family and Liberty” and in another he praised his wife, and even whined for her. But the truth is that Harmony does not prevail in the Bolsonaro Family and what prevails are power disputes. All of Brasilia knows that the three sons of the former president, Senator Eduardo, Deputy Flavio and Councilor Carlos are enemies of their stepmother Michelleappointed a week ago leader of the women’s wing of the Liberal Party by the head of that group Valdemar Costa Neto.
gossip and versions
The coexistence between Jair himself and the former first lady Michelle would not be very nice either, according to some of her gestures: such as having returned to Brazil in January, leaving her husband alone in the United States. Liberal Party sources have revealed Bolsonaro’s displeasure with the head of that group, Costa Neto, for whom Michelle would be a good “successor” to Bolsonarism in the 2026 presidential elections.
Coming out of the web of versions and gossip, there is a factual fact that generated a wedge in the marriage: she has her own ambitions, as was demonstrated with the spaces of power that she has built for herself, when campaigning for the pastor’s senatorial position Damares Alves and the shepherd Andre Mendonca as a Supreme Court judge. Both elected to such positions.
Michelle, almost 30 years her husband’s junior, could be a threat to his 2026 ambitions: she has high approval among right-wing voters and less disapproval than her husband among centrist voters. Perhaps for this reason, a month before returning to Brazil, the ex-president forbade her, and she complied, to tour several states alone.