2023-10-29 04:00:09
Agribusiness boosted the economy in the first quarter Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters – 02/18/2018 The Brazilian economy is expected to have non-negligible growth in 2023. According to the Focus Bulletin, from the BC (Central Bank), the market expectation is for an increase of 2.9% . However, economists from different theoretical perspectives have, at the very least, doubts whether this positive scenario will be repeated next year. “In 2024, even based on the base effect of comparison with 2023, growth should be lower”, believes Felipe Salto, chief economist at Warren Renascença. See also Economy Federal revenue has a fourth consecutive month of annual decline and continues to slow down Economy Government is unlikely to fulfill its promise to eliminate debt by 2024, economists project Economy War between Israel and Hamas could make gasoline and food more expensive and make credit supply in Brazil more difficult The experts interviewed by R7 agree that “everyone” was wrong in their predictions for this year. For example, Leo Siqueira, a doctoral student in economics and state deputy in São Paulo (Novo), remembers that Focus indicated growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which measures the size of a country’s economy, of 0.80%. • Click here and receive news from R7 on your WhatsApp • Share this news via WhatsApp • Share this news via Telegram The parliamentarian and economist André Roncaglia emphasize that the annual indicator so far was driven by the surprising performance of agribusiness in the first half of the year, when the sector recorded growth of 21% compared to the same previous period. For comparison purposes, in the first quarter growth in services was 0.6% and in industry 0.1%. “This growth will not be repeated next year, because an important part of this growth came as a result of the drought in Argentina. Brazil ended up occupying part of the Argentine export market, which took a heavy hit. So, I don’t know, I imagine that next year the history of the external sector will not be as strong as this year”, explains Roncaglia. Also read The 6 worst savings tips anyone can receive in their life Card sector is expected to generate R$ 3.6 trillion by the end of 2023 For economists, there is no link between card rotation and interest-free installments Government consumption, which boosts the GDP calculation, it also “influenced the increase in the indicator”, highlights Leonardo Siqueira. In the first two quarters of this year, this item grew by 0.4% and 0.7%. In this sense, Roncaglia recalls the PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) of the Estrôro, approved at the end of 2022, that the Lula da Silva administration would have extra expenses of up to R$ 145 billion in 2023. “We had a very important package with the Transition PEC, which generated what I call a fiscal bonus for the government, in terms of growth, which is unlikely to be repeated next year, because it will begin, let’s say, the effective practice of the new fiscal framework”, says André Roncaglia. It turns out that public spending generates government debt, to be paid by tax payers. This means that experts, in general, advocate a certain caution when using this device. In the Budget for 2024 sent to Congress by the federal government, there is a forecast of bringing the primary public debt to zero. Not counting interest payments on past debts, the current management wants to have a zero balance next year. In fact, this has been the main promise of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. For sources heard by R7 and other market agents, the promise of zero deficit will not be fulfilled. In the government’s own accounts, meeting this objective would require revenue to increase by R$168.5 billion in 2024. For Cláudia Moreno, economist at C6 Bank, “there is great uncertainty as to whether this expansion in revenue will actually occur.” . She predicts that, of this total, only R$100 billion will materialize. The bank’s forecast for 2024 is a negative balance of 0.7% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). It’s the same estimate as Warren Renaissance. Uncertainties Salto and Roncaglia highlight that growth in the coming years will depend on the steps the government takes. “The expansion of potential growth rates depends on an intense agenda in the area of infrastructure investment and, on another front, depends on boosting exports”, says Felipe Salto. André Roncaglia thinks that tax reform is another fundamental point. However, he fears what the final text will be eventually approved. “The tax reform ended up being much more extensive from the point of view of its implementation than what had been predicted, it will begin to be operated in 2025. If it is approved this year, right? And there is high uncertainty regarding this and other points”, he argues. Still, another point of uncertainty raised by the economist is that of Israel’s war against Hamas terrorists. According to him and other sources interviewed, one of the impacts of the conflict on the Brazilian economy could be pressure on inflation. Renan Diego, financial educator and consultant in the segment, believes that, if more countries enter the war, prices in the national territory will become more expensive. There is increasing evidence that the Iranian government helped Hamas start the war against Israel. And as evidence accumulates, concern is growing that the government in Tehran could become directly involved in the conflict in the Middle East. This is because the Muslim country is the only one in the region to have an arsenal capable of threatening Israel’s existence, including nuclear weapons, according to military sources. “[Se isso acontecer] Oil will probably increase a lot and other commodities too. Everything will be influenced, food will be impacted, because rising oil increases the majority of food transport in Brazil, which uses diesel and gasoline, petroleum derivatives”, he states. It is worth remembering that diesel is used in trucks, responsible for the majority of cargo transport in Brazil. According to the CNT (National Transport Confederation), 61.1% of this type of travel is done via highways. “An increase in oil prices could lead to a general increase in inflation, as production and transportation costs increase, which is passed on to consumers”, explains Victor Arduin, Energy and Macroeconomics analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets. Some optimism By On the other hand, André Roncaglia also thinks that Lula’s government is heading in the right direction by implementing the new PAC (Growth Acceleration Program), which promises R$260 billion in investments by 2026. “I share the anxiety regarding the effects of an industrial policy, but it is a government that still has ten full months left, Industrial policy is something that takes a long time. The results should appear in 2025, perhaps in 2026”, he states. Similarly, Felipe Salto believes that investment measures in federal government infrastructure “seems to be happening.” This would be happening through the actions of Geraldo Alckmin, vice-president and minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services. *Under the supervision of Ana Vinhas Tax reform report is presented in the Senate this Wednesday (25)
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