Lhe 156 million Brazilian voters began casting their ballots on Sunday for a tense presidential election that could see leftist former President Lula elected in the first round and far-right outgoing head of state Jair Bolsonaro denied the verdict ballot boxes. “Suspense until the end” crossed the front page of the big daily The globe which also underlined “the instability that marked the entire campaign” electoral.
Among the first voters who started voting at 8 a.m. local time (11 a.m. GMT), Edmilson Dias da Silva, a 72-year-old retiree, has already chosen Bolsonaro, for his “good government”. But he adds cautiously, “we will wait for the referee to signal the end of the game”. For this crucial election for the future of the young democracy in Brazil, the clash at the top between Jair Bolsonaro, 67, and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, relegated the other nine candidates to the rank of extras.
Former President Lula (2003-2010) was still the big favorite in the last Datafolha poll on Saturday evening, with 50% against 36% for Bolsonaro. “The question is whether there will be a second round or not, and it’s impossible to predict,” Adriano Laureno, an analyst at Prospectiva consultants, told Agence France-Presse. The other question was whether Bolsonaro would respect the verdict at the polls.
A victory for Lula, who has marked Brazilian political life for half a century and is competing for his sixth presidential election, would mark an unexpected comeback, four years after his controversial imprisonment on suspicion of corruption. The last presidential debate on Thursday illustrated the degree of hatred between the two favorites who fought each other, accusing each other of being “liar” or “corrupt”.
The campaign, carried out in bulletproof vests by the candidates, was also tense. It carried truckloads of personal attacks, delivered few projects for Brazil and took place in a poisonous climate. Thus, for many Brazilians, the election of Lula in the first round would make it possible to “finish it off” and escape four additional weeks of campaigning at loggerheads until a second round, on October 30.
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Bolsonaro is already threatening to contest the results
But a second round could allow Bolsonaro to galvanize his troops and find new momentum. On his Twitter account, he posted messages of support from his few allies: former US President Donald Trump, who called on Brazilians to “re-elect one of the greatest presidents of any country in the world”, as well as former Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
But hoping for a victory in the first round, Lula’s team campaigned for the “useful vote”, eyeing the side of the voters of Ciro Gomes (center left), 4e in the polls with 5% of voting intentions. Jair Bolsonaro said it would be “abnormal” if he did not get at least 60% of the vote on Sunday and rejected “false” polls. “I think he will contest the result if he loses, said Adriano Laureno, but that does not mean he will succeed. The international community will recognize the result quickly”.
The ex-Army captain has launched countless attacks on the reliability of electronic ballot boxes, raising the threat of a Brazilian remake of the 2021 assault on Washington’s Capitol after Trump’s defeat. The military showed no sign of unrest and the United States said it would “closely monitor” the election. More than 500,000 members of the security forces must provide security and dozens of foreign observers must monitor the progress of the vote until 5 p.m. (8 p.m. GMT).
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“Democracy against Fascism”
Lula, the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), has brought together a vast coalition of ten parties going as far as the center right of his running mate, the ex-governor of São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin, chosen to reassure economic circles. He voted early on Sunday in the first round, wanting to see Brazil “return to normality” after the far-right president’s four-year term. Dressed in a navy suit, he voted in São Bernardo do Campo, a working-class suburb of São Paulo. “We don’t want any more hatred, discord. We want a country at peace,” he said in reference to the fractures in the country.
Bolsonaro is running under the label of the small Liberal Party (PL) and enjoys the enthusiastic support of evangelicals, the agribusiness and pro-arms lobby, and the more reserved support of employers. He himself voted in Rio de Janeiro, dressed in the yellow and green jersey of the national football team under which he wore a bulletproof vest, and again cast doubt on a possible challenge to the result. “If the elections are clean, no problem. May the best win ! declared the Head of State.
The majority of Brazilians expect their president to fight against the hunger from which 30 million of them suffer, inflation and unemployment which have reinforced precariousness and corruption. Brazilians also elect Sunday their 513 federal deputies, the governors of the 27 states and the deputies of the state assemblies. Like the president, all serve four-year terms. A third of the 81 Senate seats will also be renewed, but for eight years.